Early NFL Betting Has Denver as the BIG Favorite

Betting on NFL football can be a tricky business. The public loves to bet on favorites and especially favorites who have just been crushing the opponent. This season there are five teams that have not lost a game. All 5 sit at 4-0 and with the exception of Seattle, all are taking over 70% of

Betting on NFL football can be a tricky business. The public loves to bet on favorites and especially favorites who have just been crushing the opponent. This season there are five teams that have not lost a game. All 5 sit at 4-0 and with the exception of Seattle, all are taking over 70% of the betting action as we head into the weekend.

Still, the betting public darling is clearly the Denver Broncos. Equipped with a 4-0 record and a 22-point average margin of victory, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that most of the action is on Denver (-7) at Dallas on Sunday. This number opened at -5.5 and has ballooned to -7.5 most everywhere. Elite-rated Bovada opened late with -8 and already have the Broncos as 9 point favorites, due to intense early action from bettors. Industry giant BetOnline informed us that “what is surprising is the discrepancy of money on each side. With a couple days worth of action yet to come in, 98.5% of the money is on the Broncos.”

Are the Broncos, the 2007 Patriots redux? The offense is averaging a whopping 44.75 points per game and Peyton Manning is as good as ever with 16 passing touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 138 quarterback rating. The Broncos have won each of their last eight regular season games (going back to last year) by at least 13 points. And if that is not enough, they are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS dating back to last year. Kevin Bradley, Sports Book Manager at Bovada.lv told OSGA, “We are seeing 95% of action on Denver. This will no doubt be the books’ biggest decision of the week.”

In the 2007 season the Patriots covered their first 8 games and point spreads of up to 15-16.5 points. However, they ended the regular season at 10-6 ATS. Is this the week the Broncos don’t cover the points? Don’t bet on it as the ‘Boys gave up 428 yard passing to brother Eli, who, of course, is leading an 0-4 Giants team. Until we start seeing the 20+ point spreads that doomed New England in ’07, there really is no reason not to back Peyton and the Broncos this week in Dallas.

Check back every week for more from Behind the Lines.

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