The Oklahoma City Thunder doesn't ever want to find itself in another game like the one it played on Thursday night against the Indiana Pacers.
But now that the team has it out of its system, the players are convinced that they can rebound and "learn a lesson" (in the words of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) for the one game that will decide things, which will take place on Sunday night (8 PM ET) at the Paycom Center, which is friendly territory for them.
In the NBA Finals betting odds, BetOnline has the home team favored in this showdown:
Oklahoma City Thunder -7 (-112)
Indiana Pacers +7 (-108)
Over 215 Points -110
Under 215 Points -110
And on the moneyline....
OKC -259
Indiana +214
With their backs against the wall in Thursday's Game 6, the Pacers cleared Tyrese Haliburton to play with a calf strain that had his participation in doubt.
He inspired his teammates, who came out with an incredible amount of intensity in the do-or-die situation while the Thunder was flat. Indiana put this game away, for all intents and purposes, with an explosive second quarter, giving them a 22-point halftime lead.
Haliburton ended up with 14 points and five assists in a little under 23 minutes, and his +25 plus/minus was the best for either team. So now he will benefit from a couple days of rest.
Indiana pulled away in Game 6 with a 36-17 advantage in the second period, shooting 55.6% from the field. The Pacers also scored eleven points off OKC turnovers. The Thunder had no fast break points and no second chance points. And Oklahoma City demonstrated itself to be a two-man team offensively; between them, Jalen Williams and SGA scored all of the team's points in that quarter.
Difference in effort wasn't even close
The Pacers were so utterly dominant that this game has to be considered an outlier. They doubled OKC's fast break points on the evening (22-11), had the 14-6 edge in second chance points, and forced 21 turnovers out of the Thunder. This was the by-product of 16 steals. They also had eleven offensive rebounds (to just four for OKC), so it is safe to say that they won all the hustle categories. Oklahoma City actually outshot Indiana (41.9%-41.3%), but this was deceiving, because in points that were generated by triples, the Pacers had a massive 45-24 margin.
The defensive "stoppers" (i.e., the guys who have appeared on an NBA All-Defensive team) had an awful night. Just look at the plus-minus figures - Jalen Williams was at -40, Lu Dort finished at -28. Alex Caruso, who was held scoreless and got off only two shots, was at -33. They'll need a reversal from all these guys to win against an Indiana team that is bringing some confidence into the proceedings.
In a game like we saw on Thursday night, you really have to look at what the starters and, say, the first two guys off the bench, produced, since those benches got emptied. No less than 27 players saw action in Game 6.
From the free throw line, Indiana hit just 68%, but their starters shot 84.6%. The sixth man, Obi Toppin, had a sensational game, with 20 points (inclusive of four triples) and six rebounds in 23 minutes. TJ McConnell had nine rebounds and six assists.
The Thunder got just one three-point field goal out of its starting players. And Chet Holmgren continued to disappoint, with a 2-for-9 performance from the field (he's just 35.3% for the series).
In terms of the MVP odds, this is how they look at BetOnline:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -225
Pascal Siakam +325
Tyrese Haliburton +1000
Jalen Williams +1400
TJ McConnell +6600
Haliburton was a much bigger longshot when it was announced that he might not play Game 6 with his calf injury, but if the Pacers can pull off the upset, you've got to give him a chance. And it wouldn't be a bad payday for those who stuck with him.
There was no way he was not going to make post on Thursday night. He wasn't going to sit out the NBA Finals. And so we'd expect that he'll come out even stronger in Game 7 after having Friday and Saturday off.
Conclusion
After such a gargantuan effort in Game 6, can Indiana pull off the upset in the deciding game?
Well, we do know a couple of things here:
-- We know that the Pacers have been capable of traveling to Oklahoma City and winning, as they did in Game 1.
-- We also know that the Thunder has an 18-2 record following a defeat.
As far as the latter is concerned, that means (a) the Thunder knows how to make corrections, (b) they are mentally tough enough to bounce back, and (c) their level of talent and teamwork isn't going to allow a losing streak.
So which way will we go? They have come down far enough on the total that I don't see the value in going "under," as we've done successfully a few times in this series.
But I can see the Thunder's superiority in critical parts of the game - like we talked about in our preview piece at the outset of this series - carry the day here. Laying the points might work on an evening in which there will be no tomorrow.
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