Here it is Wednesday and there are still several sportsbooks that have no line on this weekends’ Sunday Night match
up where the Philadelphia Eagles travel to Gillette Stadium to play the New England Patriots.

We had put a poll out on Monday, when no offshore books had a line up yet. We asked OSGA visitors should the line be 15, 16.5, 18 or over 25. The majority of respondents took 18 or less points. Late on Tuesday, several offshore books opened the line at 22. Meanwhile Vegas opened the line at either 20 or 20.5 and these shops are now booking bets at 23 or 23.5.

Is this where the line is going? Should players who like New England immediately find a book that is offering 22?

A bookmaker in Costa Rica told us that they feel they could put any number out there and the public would still bet the Patriots. But, he also felt that waiting until tomorrow may be the best thing for his shop. He was waiting for the Eagles to update McNabb’s status adding that even when the games get posted late, they are posted on Thursday. His outfit may also take advantage of the enormous amount of traffic generated over the Thanksgiving weekend to get some additional volume on the game. Believe
it or not, it is much easier to move a line when there is high volume and most of the shaper shops these days all write a large amount of tickets, especially on the Sunday night game.

We were told, “Either way, we are going to be Super Loaded on this game. It will most likely be the largest decision we have this week.”

In looking across the board at who has the Patriots game active, one could start by making a list starting with the most sharp books (Pinnacle, CRIS, theGreek, etc) down to the most recreational (WagerWeb, BetMania, bodog, etc). Then draw a line right after the last book offering the game. You will be left with only square outs who have yet to put a line out on the Pats.

So, the larger and sharper shops have a number up already and all opened at New England -22. We were told that though McNabb is a huge part of the Eagles game, it would not have much affect on the overall line. One wise shop told us, “Look at last year, the team (Eagles) did better with Garcia in there. We would probably be holding the game if it were Brady that was questionable.”

We mentioned that two-thirds of the respondents on our poll had the line below what they were offering and asked if the opening number was too high. One old school bookmaker told us, “you would hate to be the guy that has the game listed to high and the Pats only cover by 10. But the way the public has been betting the Patriots, we are hoping to keep the decision under 6 figures.”

So if you are looking for the Patriots, eventually it will become available everywhere. But for now, check out the big dogs offshore and Vegas. They seem to be confident that the number is right, though it does appear to be on the rise……..

This leads us to the next question. How high will it go?  The Gold Sheet reports that there have been 23 games where the spread was 20 points or more. Below are some of the biggest spreads ever in the NFL. Please note that four of the five largest spreads were not covered by the favorite.

• 1976 – Steelers -24 over Bucs.
  Steelers cover, 42-0.
• 1993 – 49ers -23 over Bengals.
  49ers did not cover the 23 points but won, 21-8.
• 1975 – Raiders -22 over
  Browns.  The Raiders did not cover the closing line winning by three
  touchdowns, 38-17.
• 1977 – Cowboys -22 over Bucs. The
  Cowboys wind but do not cover, 23-7.
• 1987 – 49ers -23 over Falcons
  (strike game). Strike season does not count in our records keeping,  but
  the Niners did not cover winning, 25-17.

This is the largest spread since many of the offshore operators and lines makers began in the industry. Many have never seen lines as big as they are in general this year. One operator did note to us that this is the first time he has seen a team favored by more than two touchdowns three weeks in a row.

Perhaps, if you are a trend player, this is the week where the Pats ‘only’ win by two touchdowns.