Getting the Best Line

It is hard to quantify the half-point. Sometime you lose a game by half a point and sometimes you win a game by half a point. But, over the long haul, getting the best line for your wager is a betting strategy that successful gamblers use everyday. “Shopping the line” as it is commonly called

It is hard to quantify the half-point. Sometime you lose a game by half a point and sometimes you win a game by half a point. But, over the long haul, getting the best line for your wager is a betting strategy that successful gamblers use everyday.

“Shopping the line” as it is commonly called is a top way to maximize profit in football betting, as well as all sports and prop bets. There are two ways to shop for the best line. One is to make sure you check the lines on potential betting games early in the week for football or overnight for baseball and basketball bets.

The early line strategy is commonly used by the ‘sharp’ gamblers. The sharp money will grab a line as early as Sunday night if they think that the line is a bit off, or favors their position. Now most of us are not able to determine which way the line is going to move, but following the move or playing against it is a great strategy. If you are looking at a favorite and the line begins to drop, unless it is headed towards 3 or seven, grab it. Generally speaking, the public likes to bet favorites and overs. And, as game time approaches, more often than not, a line that has moved down on a favorite will rise back up as Saturday or Sunday approaches.

Conversely, an underdog will have the line increase as game time approaches. As players bet favorites, the money will move the line in the direction of the favorite, so that dog players may want to wait until closer to game time to place their bets. Still this is not an exact science. The rule of thumb is that if a line moves off of the 3 or 7 in your favor, grab it. Also, if you liked a favorite at -5.5 and it drops to -5, you must really like it now. Don’t hesitate, play that wager.

The second way to get the best line is to have multiple places to wager (outs) and pit them against each other on wagers to find the most attractive line for your sides and totals. This is a particularly effective tool if you have a two Sportsbooks – one that is large and a smaller one, or a book that has a ton of sharp players and a book that is entirely a recreational betting crowd. You will find that some books move quicker or move on their own money. A book that has a ton of sharp players may move their line before a sportsbook that has all recreational customers. If a line move works in your favor, grab it at the recreational book or vice-versa. It is also good to know your sportsbooks a bit. Elite-rated Bodog typically will move the line a half-point for the favorite before most sportsbooks, so a dog player may benefit there. It is also helpful to know which books are affiliated, as lines at ‘sister’ books will move simultaneously.

A perfect example of this happened already this NFL season. Last week the Arizona Cardinals opened as a 4 point favorite against the St. Louis Rams. The line dropped to 3.5 points and, though hard to believe, ended up closing at many sportsbooks offshore at Cards -3. A player who took the early line ended up with a push as the game ended at 17-13, Cardinals. Had players waited to see if the line moved, they would have cashed that ticket.

The big move in college football last Saturday was Oregon at Tennessee, according to Elite-rated Diamond Sports. The Ducks were a top-rated team and fresh off a 72-0 pounding of New Mexico while the Vols were an ‘extra’ game winner over small school Tennessee-Martin. New Mexico was 1-11 last year so Oregon trouncing them plus the Vols at home saw a line drop of Oregon -14 all the way down to -10 1/2 as sharps and public were on the double-digit home dog, as indicated by Diamond. With Tennessee up 13-3 in the first half, the sharps looked sharp, but they went to half tied 13-13. Then the second half saw Oregon roll up 35 unanswered points for a 48-13 huge win and cover. Here the line moved dramatically down as both shaprs and public saw value with the traditional strong school getting big points at home, yet Oregon cruised.

Another angle that players use to capitalize on line movement is to try to “middle” big shifts in the line. At Diamond, the head linesmaker was a bit upset as they got middled on the total of the Packers/Eagles game. The Pack won and the total went 46 to 48 as people expected Green Bay to score in bunches, and the total falling right in the middle with Green Bay winning 27-20. “We paid out winners on the OV46 and 46 1/2 and also paid winners who bet the other way once the line went to 47 1/2 and 48,” said Diamond.

The bottom line is DO NOT take the line that is given to you without doing at least a little research, showing a little patience or moving quickly. A half-point a couple of times a year could be the difference between a profitable or losing season.

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