Off Shore Gaming Association

We have been getting bombarded ever since New Jersey Governor Chris Christie signed an online gambling bill into law for residents and visitors to the Garden State. Everyone wants to know what this all means and when can they start betting online. The belief in New Jersey is that an online wager takes places where the wager is accepted, so most of the answers revolve around the Jersey Shore gambling mecca. Below we answer some of the frequently asked questions regarding the New Jersey online betting law.

Q: The top question has been “When?”, as in “When can I start betting legally online in New Jersey?”

A: Not for some time. Some analysts have said that it will take 18 months to 2 years  to get online gambling up to its full potential. However, there are revenue figures in the budget that starts in July and some operators, like Poker Stars should be able to get ready very quickly. However, there need to be rules and regulations in place, vendors found and tests run. Look for online gambling in some form this year, but limited and not until after the summer tourist season ends.

Q: “Do I need to live in New Jersey or can I just just play in New Jersey?”

A: Players need to be physically located within the borders of New Jersey to play online. In addition,as it stands right now, players will have to physically go to Atlantic City to  open accounts.

Q: “What games are there going to be?”

A: The law is written so that anything offered at brick and mortar casinos in AC is allowed to be offered online. This includes casino games, as well as poker.

Its companion question is usually, “Can I bet on sports online in NJ?”

The answer is No. You can’t bet on sports, yet, in casinos or racetracks in the state, so you cannot bet sports online either.

Q: “So now I am allowed to play online with a place in Costa Rica or England, right?”

A: Again, No. NJ residents are only allowed to play at casinos based in Atlantic City.

Keep in mind that many of the smaller operational questions have yet to be figured out by lawmakers and the industry. There is speculation that accounts will be able to be funded with ACH payments, debit cards and credit cards, but these have not been clearly outlined yet. Nor have any limits, initial games or registration information been given. From what we have been able to tell, they don’t even know how much a license is going to cost yet! So clearly, this is a HUGE victory in a state with 9 million residents, but online gambling will take some time to unfold in New Jersey.

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The ink had not even dried on the recent blockbuster trade between the Miami Marlins and the Toronto Blue Jays when oddsmakers took notice and reacted – immediately. The blockbuster trade between the Miami Marlins and the Toronto Blue Jays affected future MLB World Series betting odds. Prior to the trade that sent Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes from Miami to Toronto, the Blue Jays were at 35-1 to win the World Series. Today they sit at 14-1 at Bovada.lv, down from 16-1 right after the linesmakers reacted to the trade.

People are betting the Blue Jays to win it all now and the deal hasn’t even been approved by Major League Baseball yet. And the hapless Marlins, their MLB World Series future bet odds were at a whopping 40-1 even with those players. They now sit at the bottom of the pool (or the top of the longshots) at 100-1.

Bettors are again wagering that these stars have transformed a mediocre team with a mediocre chance of winning the World Series into a good betting value. Unfortunately, these trades rarely consummate with the World Series or championship trophy. These particular players make this one very interesting.

Last year prior to the free agent signing of the Marlins, the odds for them to win it all were about the same as they were last week, roughly 40-1. They picked up Buehrle and Reyes and their odds went down to 20-1 to win it all and in the first weeks of the 2012 season even dropped to 18-1 or less at some outlets – despite a poor record. The blockbuster deal could make the Blue Jays a serious threat in the AL East, but 3 players do not make a team as Marlins bettors found out last year. The Blue Jays still have to beat out the defending AL champions, the Detroit Tigers, who are the favorites to win the World Series at 7.5 to 1.

Bovada has one prop up that may be worthwhile for bettors who want to take early advantage of this huge trade. Will the Toronto Blue Jays make the Playoffs? Yes is an underdog at +150 and No is currently at 2-1. With the aging Yankees and the expanded format, the three newly acquired players make the Jays an attractive bet to make the playoffs, especially getting $150 back on every $100 bet. Finally, another prop that changed because of this trade is the total wins for both of these teams in the 2013 season. The Best Bet here: Miami Marlins Under 69.5 Wins. They only won 69 last year with these players!

Right now, may online sportsbooks do not have the future odds up for the World Series. You can get the above prices and the exclusive props right now at Bovada.

UPDATE: The Blue Jays just picked up Melky Cabrera in another huge move. The disgraced former Giant and All-Star MVP moved the line even further for the Jays. They now sit at 11-1 to win the 2013 MLB World Series.

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Up until June it appeared that exchange wagering on horse racing in California was a sure thing. Two years ago The California Horse Racing Board gave its okay for TVG (owned by Betfair) to offer the product and the only hurdle that TVG had to pass was the approval by other horsemen and a reasonable figure for commission.

As the name suggests, a horse racing exchange operates like the stock exchange whereby one bettor offers a price on a stock (in this case a horse) and another bettor takes that price. The price they agree on is final and if the market changes subsequently it has no effect on the odds that are already agreed to. In North America currently the only option for horse betting is pari-mutuel where the odds on the tote board at the time of the bet are irrelevant and the odds the bettor receives are only known when all the pools, both at the track and those simulcast from other racetracks, are amalgamated and the track takes out its percentage (ranging from 17% to 30% depending on the type of wager). Many younger bettors have said that the fact they don’t know what odds they will be getting is one of the biggest turnoffs to them in betting on horse racing. The other major turnoff is the high takeout. Exchange wagering also offers two other advantages, the ability to bet while the race is being run and the ability to lay a horse (i.e. bet against it). Effectively laying a horse is similar to selling short a stock and is one of the biggest concerns that horsemen have indicated. They believe that the ability to wager against a horse will cause problems with integrity and may convince some jockeys (and possibly trainers or owners on advice to the jockey) to purposely lose on a horse in order to get a big payday on the exchange. After all, if a horse is 1/5 favorite they can probably get 3/1 betting against it and there are certainly subtle ways that jockeys can throw races if they want to. What these horsemen fail to realize is that every wager is logged and TVG would know exactly who placed a wager and for how much so they can actually indicate to the California Horse Racing Board that someone who wasn’t eligible to wager has placed a bet against a horse plus they can highlight suspicious betting patterns which can’t be done currently with pari-mutuel wagering.

I spoke to someone in California who is close to the situation and they were confident that exchange wagering will never get the go ahead as long as Frank Stronach has a say. While TVG and many other more visionary types see the exchange as a savior to the industry, my source says that Stronach is still old school and wants nothing to do with it. He hates the fact that all wagering on the exchange will be done only by computers and he particularly hates the idea of being able to wager against horses. And because Stronach is the head of the Los Angeles Turf Club and Pacific Racing Association, which owns Santa Anita and Golden Gate fields, his approval is necessary for the exchange to ever get the go ahead. That’s why my source is confident that the exchange is effectively dead as Stronach will never give his approval. Moreover, the source said that horsemen at all tracks also want a bigger commission than TVG proposed. The Betfair owned company proposed a 10% commission on all winning wagers to be split between the track, the horsemen and TVG. But the horsemen want it to be closer to the 20% that is taken out from pari-mutuel wagering now and they want the bulk to go to horsemen. The problem with that, as TVG pointed out, is that at a 20% commission there will be no incentive for younger bettors to wager on the exchange since the current exorbitant takeout is a reason they stopped betting on horse racing in North America as it is. Right now Betfair charges UK customers 3% – 5% commission based on their level of play, so the 10% commission is already higher than they would like, but the company realizes that the higher commission is necessary to get the horsemen to at least consider the idea.

Not surprisingly TVG is angry at the California Horse Racing Board’s decision and feel betrayed since they were effectively given the go ahead by the state amid much hoopla just over a year ago to offer the product and then had the rug pulled out from under them without a real discussion with the company. And no doubt TVG sees the writing on the wall that this delay could become indefinite. TVG’s options now are to go to another jurisdiction to offer the product, most likely New Jersey which has indicated interest; they can try and rally the troops to convince Stronach to change his mind; or they can just give up. The latter, however, is not likely. One of the main reasons Betfair bought TVG in the first place was the realization that they had a product that could revolutionize horse racing in North America and bring back younger bettors to the sport. What they didn’t realize is that they possibly had to wait for the old guard to die before they would get the go ahead. And at this rate, the industry will probably die before the likes of Stronach.

Exchange wagering is an exciting product and is a proven winner in Europe and Australia. It offers a way of betting horses that will bring younger bettors back to the sport but it seems that many horsemen still long for the days when horse racing was the only gambling game in town and the elite went to the track dressed in suits and dresses and paid a premium to sit in the clubhouse. At some point these horsemen will realize that those days are long over. Hopefully, it won’t be too late for the sport.

Contact Hartley via email at Hartley[at]osga[dot]com.

Read insights from Hartley Henderson every week here at OSGA and check out more from Hartley’s RUMOR MILL!

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It is hard to quantify the half-point. Sometime you lose a game by half a point and sometimes you win a game by half a point. But, over the long haul, getting the best line for your wager is a betting strategy that successful gamblers use everyday.

“Shopping the line” as it is commonly called is a top way to maximize profit in football betting, as well as all sports and prop bets. There are two ways to shop for the best line. One is to make sure you check the lines on potential betting games early in the week for football or overnight for baseball and basketball bets.

The early line strategy is commonly used by the ‘sharp’ gamblers. The sharp money will grab a line as early as Sunday night if they think that the line is a bit off, or favors their position. Now most of us are not able to determine which way the line is going to move, but following the move or playing against it is a great strategy. If you are looking at a favorite and the line begins to drop, unless it is headed towards 3 or seven, grab it. Generally speaking, the public likes to bet favorites and overs. And, as game time approaches, more often than not, a line that has moved down on a favorite will rise back up as Saturday or Sunday approaches.

Conversely, an underdog will have the line increase as game time approaches. As players bet favorites, the money will move the line in the direction of the favorite, so that dog players may want to wait until closer to game time to place their bets. Still this is not an exact science. The rule of thumb is that if a line moves off of the 3 or 7 in your favor, grab it. Also, if you liked a favorite at -5.5 and it drops to -5, you must really like it now. Don’t hesitate, play that wager.

The second way to get the best line is to have multiple places to wager (outs) and pit them against each other on wagers to find the most attractive line for your sides and totals. This is a particularly effective tool if you have a two Sportsbooks – one that is large and a smaller one, or a book that has a ton of sharp players and a book that is entirely a recreational betting crowd. You will find that some books move quicker or move on their own money. A book that has a ton of sharp players may move their line before a sportsbook that has all recreational customers. If a line move works in your favor, grab it at the recreational book or vice-versa. It is also good to know your sportsbooks a bit. Elite-rated Bodog typically will move the line a half-point for the favorite before most sportsbooks, so a dog player may benefit there. It is also helpful to know which books are affiliated, as lines at ‘sister’ books will move simultaneously.

A perfect example of this happened already this NFL season. Last week the Arizona Cardinals opened as a 4 point favorite against the St. Louis Rams. The line dropped to 3.5 points and, though hard to believe, ended up closing at many sportsbooks offshore at Cards -3. A player who took the early line ended up with a push as the game ended at 17-13, Cardinals. Had players waited to see if the line moved, they would have cashed that ticket.

The big move in college football last Saturday was Oregon at Tennessee, according to Elite-rated Diamond Sports. The Ducks were a top-rated team and fresh off a 72-0 pounding of New Mexico while the Vols were an ‘extra’ game winner over small school Tennessee-Martin. New Mexico was 1-11 last year so Oregon trouncing them plus the Vols at home saw a line drop of Oregon -14 all the way down to -10 1/2 as sharps and public were on the double-digit home dog, as indicated by Diamond. With Tennessee up 13-3 in the first half, the sharps looked sharp, but they went to half tied 13-13. Then the second half saw Oregon roll up 35 unanswered points for a 48-13 huge win and cover. Here the line moved dramatically down as both shaprs and public saw value with the traditional strong school getting big points at home, yet Oregon cruised.

Another angle that players use to capitalize on line movement is to try to “middle” big shifts in the line. At Diamond, the head linesmaker was a bit upset as they got middled on the total of the Packers/Eagles game. The Pack won and the total went 46 to 48 as people expected Green Bay to score in bunches, and the total falling right in the middle with Green Bay winning 27-20. “We paid out winners on the OV46 and 46 1/2 and also paid winners who bet the other way once the line went to 47 1/2 and 48,” said Diamond.

The bottom line is DO NOT take the line that is given to you without doing at least a little research, showing a little patience or moving quickly. A half-point a couple of times a year could be the difference between a profitable or losing season.

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A funny thing happened on the way to the sportsbook this week. I got excited about soccer, err . . . futbol. And it wasn’t because of the dramatic U.S. victory in the 91st minute. It was because the sportsbook I was headed to was not in Las Vegas, but in Latin America. Apparently, this World Cup thing is HUGE in the rest of the world.

From the moment I got off the plane in Panama, there were signs of the World Cup. People from all walks of life were wearing jerseys from soccer teams around the world. Brazil and Spain appeared to be very popular ones smattered with England, Mexico and Portugal. On the way to the airport, I asked the taxi driver about World Cup fever.

“Oh Ches. De World Cup is berry big down here.” But, Panama does not have a team in the tournament, I remarked. “Every body picks dare team or where dare grandfadders and modders come from”, I was told. Apparently, his team is Brazil, which looks like a solid pick.

Upon arriving at the hotel, all of the employees were all wearing the same colored shirt – orange – for the Dutch squad. Apparently, the parent company that owns the hotel is Dutch. Then it’s off to the hotel bar, where four extra 40 inch flat screens were sitting on tables for all to watch. As one English-speaking local told me, “At my little local bar, there are 6 brand-new plasmas. It’s not that big a place, it’s like there is plasma overload in there.”

On one trip around Panama City in the afternoon, I noticed far less traffic in what is normally a congested area. I was told by that taxi driver that, “everyone is watching futbol.” So, with all of this, and the next several days of soccer, soccer and more soccer, I have been converted. A 0-0 tie really can be exciting. And watching the English bemoan their team and the French cry in their wine, the World Cup has become quite exciting for this American.

And, I am not the only one. Handle is up throughout Latin America and Caribbean sportsbooks. Industry giant Bodog told us that, “We are seeing great action through the first matches of the World Cup. The handle is comparable to an NFL Sunday regular season game.” Sill, 5Dimes is seeing even more wagers than that! “Action is about double what we expected. We expected similar action to a typical NFL Monday night football game. We’re getting double that”, the top man at 5D told us.

One reason for the exceptional handle might be in the outcomes of some of the early games where a number of soccer ‘giants’ went down. 5Dimes added that “this World Cup has exceeded expectations to this point.” And this is only destined to increase.

The belief offshore (and a valid one) is that the handle in the next round will even larger, as bettors get a better grasp on who is playing well, Bodog expects the 2nd round wagering to be “comparable to an NFL first round playoff game.”

Of course, some games will get more bets then others depending on the teams playing, just like in the NFL. But powerhouse countries like Spain, Brazil and Germany will see a good deal of action. And of course, for sportsbooks that service the American market, they can expect to see a ton of bets on the U.S. But, book who have an international clientele, like Bodog, with Canadian, European and South American clients, will get wagers on both teams and thus balance the action.

So have American bettors embraced the World Cup? Yes, is the definitive answer. And for books that take U.S. bets, with clients who have new affinity for soccer betting, GOOOAAAL is the word of the month.

On a side note, in the U.S. the ESPN announcers really do not do the sport justice. International commentators really get into the match. You can have a beer in your hand, turned away from the bar, and hear when it is time to watch the flat screen. The excitement builds in the announcer and the viewers, all waiting to hear the afore mentioned scream of GOOOAAAL! Great stuff, but not on a TV set in America.

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This year Super Bowl should be an excellent game, as these two teams match up very well, and the expectation is that this one will be a shootout. And touchdowns are always fun to watch especially when viewing with a mixed group of bettors, fans and commercial watchers. But, the most exciting thing about the Super Bowl? Prop betting or live wagering.
 
Prop betting has exploded with every outlet offering hundreds if not thousands of these ‘man-made’ wagers. Every outlet is currently offering props from the coin toss to the final play and utilize every offensive player and special teams gimmick. Keep in mind when looking at all of these wagers that the public generally bets ‘over’ and ‘yes’ so prices for these options are typically inflated.

Still, these wagers will make even the slowest of Super Bowl games interesting. You can bet on the yardage for Bush’s first carry, total yards, longest rush, receptions, reception yardage and whether he will score a touchdown. It’s a given that if your sportsbook is giving Bush this much attention, the so will the Colts. With plays available on Saints’ Marquis Colston and Jeremey Shockey and the Colts’ Joseph Addai and Reggie Wayne it may be worthwhile to look at some of the ‘other’ cast members on each team’s offense for a bit of value.

Saints WR Devery Henderson has been having a nice run in the payoffs, with 8 catches for over a hundred yards and two scores. So, I’ll take “Will Devery‘Henderson score a TD in the game?” for Yes at +235, instead of Colston at +105.

For the Colt’s turn to Austin Collie as the oddsmakers seem to have caught up with Pierre Garcon, who has been on fire for Manning in the last two games. Collie has been a huge contrbutor recently and is the only Colt with 2 scores in the post-season . “Longest Reception – Austin Collie” at -110 looks like a solid play, though it is hard to lay off of Dallas Clark to score a touchdown at -140.

The coins toss, the first score, the longest field goal are usually some of my favorites and will certainly get some of my attention. I also always look to an exact point prop, as these always have some excellent odds. Usually I will take the team that I like at the half and then place an ‘exact margin of victory’ play. So, thinking it will be a close game, rather than take the Saints +3 for the half, wager Saints up by 1-3 points at 4-1 or the Colts margin of 1-3 points at 3-1 odds.  Still, I sift through the pages and pages of prop at the various outlets clicking and clicking to find some crazy ones that make me look twice and perhaps, wager once.

Bodog has two that are just fabulous. “What color top will Kim Kardashian be wearing at the Super Bowl?” Black (the favorite at -135), white, or other color (6/5). I wonder what happens if she changes at halftime?  The silliest prop is obviously from 1968, “If any member of the Who smashes their guitar what does the guitar hit first?” Hmm, floor at 1/9 or drummer at 200/1? How ’bout “No” to will a guitar get smashed at -190 (these guys are pretty old for that kinda stuff).

In addition to all of this, you can bet LIVE during the commercial break of the game. WSEX pioneered this years ago and this year 5Dimes, who does some live wagering on various events, will have wagering during every comercial break. Bodog also is offering live betting during the game.

Sportsbooks worldwide pull out the incentives for the biggest single game of betting each year. This year is no exception with a 100% bonus offer at several outlets. BetJamaica has a $100 Free Play on a $100 first time deposit and at WagerWeb for every $100 you send in, you get the same offer – up to $1000, plus 5% back on any SuperBowl losses! BetPhoenix takes the same offer one step further Deposit $100 and receive a $100 free wager on the Super Bowl. If your Super Bowl wager loses you will get another chance to use it! WHAT!

SBG Global will pick up the fees for deposits and give you an additional $50 free Play for sending cash. Both betEd  and 5Dimes are coughing up a 50% bonus. And at least 20% can be found at most every outlet worldwide. Check here for the latest updated Super Bowl bonus offers.

Keep in mind, as with any bonuses, these offers carry restrictions. So make sure you check the fine print of any offer before you send money.

Who Dat making Ca$h on the Super Bowl? Enjoy the game.

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