Are Huge Football Favorites Worth Betting?

Posted by on 20 Sep 2013 | Tagged as: Behind the Lines

Here we are in week 3 of the NFL season and there are some of the largest point spreads in recent memory on the board. Seattle is favored by a  whopping 18 points at home against Jacksonville and Denver is a home favorite of 15.5 over Oakland on Monday night. What is very surprising is that the number has crept up all week on both of these huge favorites.

Most of the online sportsbooks around the world have seen huge movement on these two numbers. Seattle opened as a 16.5 point favorite and the Broncos began the week favored by 14.5 points. As of this writing industry giant Bovada has moved the Seahawks to a -19 favorite and the Broncos to a 16.5 point favorite. With these point spreads already in the stratosphere, where will they land on Sunday and are huge favorites like this a good value for bettors?

According to several sources it looks like the line moves for the Broncos are being driven entirely by the public with over 80% of the wagers on the favorite. This is still an early season divisional game and the Broncos are without two of their best players in Ryan Clady and Von Miller. The Broncos are coming off a big victory in New York to travel back home to take on the Raiders in a snoozer. The line movement and public betting fury must be the Peyton Manning factor. Peyton’s gonna throw 7 touchdowns again this week!

We fully expected the point spread to move on the Seahawks and the betting numbers are similar on Seattle to cover. Kevin Bradley, sportsbook manager at Bovada, tells OSGA, “Despite being the highest point spread we have offered since 2007, when New England was over 20 point favorites to Miami, we are currently taking 3/4 of the money on Seattle to cover.” The Jaguars are just plain dreadful this year and the Seahawks are among the league’s best team, especially at home. The line movement of 2.5 points, tells you that everyone believe that the Jags really are that bad and Seattle really is that good at home.

Bradley sees this trend continuing over the next several weeks. “Poor Jacksonville has to go into Denver in Week 6 and if the Seahawks do end up covering this weekend against the Jags and Denver is still undefeated by then, you will see a point spread of at least 3 touchdowns in that game,” said Bradley.

Here’s a note of caution for bettors who like to back big favorites, the undefeated 2007 New England Patriots had 10 games that season with point spreads of -13 or higher. Their ATS record in those games . . . 5-5. In addition, there have only been 11 times that a point spread closed at 19.5 points or higher and the favorites covered the spread in just three of those games.

It’s easy to say that one of these two huge dogs is going to cover, it’s up to you to find the right side if you want to bet a more-than-two-touchdown favorite in NFL games.

Super Bowl Odds: Week 1 Games affect NFL Future Odds

Posted by on 13 Sep 2013 | Tagged as: Behind the Lines

The odds to win the Super Bowl each year are posted early each year, surfacing during the summer months. These pre-season odds are based on how the team fared in the previous season, coaching changes, personnel moves that teams make during the offseason, and strength of schedule. However, once the season starts, these odds evolve and after Week 1 in the NFL there are already several surprising and big moves in the odds to win Super Bowl 47.

Everybody is talking about Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles offense. Las Vegas dropped the odds on the Birds to win the Super Bowl dramatically and online sportsbooks quickly followed suit after their win in Washington on Monday night. Bovada moved  the Eagles odds of winning the Super Bowl from 50-1 to 28-1 after the win, while the LVH Super Book in Las Vegas went even further to 25-1. However, several other books like Diamond Sports have been less aggressive and still have the Eagles listed at 36-1.  It’s hard to blame the books for this move and it looks like a valid change after watching that offense. If the Eagles beat the Chargers at home AND cover the current 7.5 point spread look for this number to continue to push downward.

Bovada Sportsbook Manager Kevin Bradley agrees telling us that “No team has seen a bigger drop in odds than the Philadelphia Eagles going from 50-1 to 28-1 and if they win as 7.5 point favorites at home to the Chargers this Week, I see us moving those odds to under 20-1 and making them legit Super Bowl contenders.”

The same thing happened to the Pittsburgh Steelers, just in the opposite direction. The Steelers opened the year at 28-1 at Bovada and now sit at 50-1 pretty much everywhere. The lackluster play, coupled with the loss of their Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey. Still, this is a team that many ‘experts’ projected to  be in the playoffs.  Here Bovada’s Bradley disagrees, “The Steelers, who I was not big on going into the season proved me right last week and after one week are already 50-1 and taking no money.”

Other notable moves after Week 1 include the Redskins, who after a very poor first half from RGIII went from 33-1 to 40-1. The Vikings and Buccaneers dropped also dramatically after week 1 losses. Other top teams and perennial contenders including last year’s Super Bowl Champions dropped slightly in the odds. The Atlanta Falcons who opened at Bovada at 12-1 and now sit at 20-1 cannot be ignored, nor should the Saints or Packers who flip flopped on the odds board after their opening game wins.

The longest pre-season Super Bowl odds to cash in recent memory were on the New York Giants in 2007, who opened at 30-1. Whatever happens, however, it goes without saying that there is a lot of value to be had if you can accurately predict the Super Bowl winner so early in the season. Even the smallest win in the last seven years would have netted you $130 on a ten dollar bet made during the first two weeks of the season. Just beware big moves based on one win . . . so early in the season.

Current Super Bowl Odds from Bovada list Denver as the favorite at 5-1, San Francisco at 6-1, Seattle at 8-1 and New England at 9-1. For the complete odds click here.

Check back every week for more from Behind the Lines.

Free Football Contests Return

Posted by on 06 Sep 2013 | Tagged as: Bets and More, Promotions

This year the Off Shore Gaming Association is proud to again offer TWO huge football contests that players can enter for FREE!! The two contests are distinct, but share in common over $10,000 worth of prizes with absolutely NO ENTRY FEE.

After 7 years of offering season-long NFL football contests, we have again introduced the hugely popular OSGA Progressive Pick ‘Em. This contest is actually two contests in one - a weekly prize of a $300 betting account at Elite-rated BetOnline plus a progressive contest that builds throughout the season. Each week players vie for a free betting account by picking every NFL game straight up with no point spreads involved. Players can get involved at any time during the season for the weekly BetOnline betting account. The progressive part of the contest is for the player who plays every week and looks to find a contestant who gets every game on the board correct. The prize is $100 cash weekly, but grows every week if no one selects all of the games correctly. Though a perfect week seems likely throughout an entire season, last year was the first season that we had someone pick every game correctly. Still, at the end of the season players with the top win-loss records split a rollover pot of $600.

This is our first year for introducing a College Football contest. Each week players will pick 10 out of 15 hand-picked games in the first ever College Football Pick ‘Em! Players will have to choose their ten games Against the Spread and assign ‘confidence points’ to their selections. This contest will challenge players to not just pick winners, but to grab the most points possible by assigning the highest point values to their favorite games. A weekly $250 betting account is up for grabs from Elite-rated SportsBettingOnline, plus cash prizes and more betting accounts for the season-long point leaders. Register today for the College Football Pick ‘Em, where you choose the games and you identify your best picks for the biggest prizes.

Sign up today and get started with both the 2013 OSGA Pro Football Progressive Pick ‘Em AND the ALL NEW OSGA College Football Pick ‘Em. We’re happy to bring these annual FREE football contests to every fan of OSGA and wish everyone who enters, the best of luck!

College Football Betting: NCAA Top 10 Team’s Odds To Win the BCS Title

Posted by on 29 Aug 2013 | Tagged as: Bar Stool Betting, Bets and More

College Football Betting marks its return this week with a SEC driven Top 10 ranked teams. While winning teams are always fun to back, they don’t always put money in your pocket and it is important to distinguish the difference between a 7 and 7 ATS Alabama Crimson Tide versus an 11 and 1 ATS Northwestern Wildcats. Your number 1 team can still cost you dollars where a not so glamorous team or conference can make you some coin if bet correctly. While the SEC teams look to dominate the win column, bettors are looking to dominate the “I won money” column. Look for the Pac 12 to compete in the title run, but be on the lookout for some upsets out West where the pigskins fly a bit more than they should. The Big 10 has always focused on steady and sure football, but the 12 and O high flying Urban Meyer lead Ohio State Buck Eyes and the Northwestern Wildcats “need we say more” will most likely force the conference to open its wings a bit to keep pace. The Big 12 is on the outside looking in with zero top 10 recognition.

Now let’s turn the show over to barstool magician and sports betting’s Rodney Dangerfield Randy Mann as he takes a video hot lap around the AP top 10 teams and their odds to win the BCS title. For the true college football betting enthusiasts out there Randy gives us the goods with SU, ATS, and other inside dealings and happenings with each team to help you make your next wager a more informed bet.

The Barstool Prophet guides you through the AP Top 10.

College Football Odds Provided By

California Senator May be prepared to accept a Watered-Down Poker Bill

Posted by on 22 Aug 2013 | Tagged as: The Rumor Mill

Currently there are 3 online gambling bills on the table in the California General Assembly. These include Lou Correa’s bill SB 678, “Authorization and Regulation of Internet Poker and Consumer Protection Act of 2013”; Roderick Wright’s SB 51 ”Internet Gambling Consumer Protection and Public-Private Partnership Act of 2013″; and the draft bill from the California Tribes which OSGA highlighted in a previous article.  All 3 bills looked to have promise at some point during the year but each lost momentum and got bogged down in committee due to the usual infighting between the tribes, poker rooms and horse tracks. With the Assembly scheduled to shut down for the year on September 6th everyone in the industry just accepted that the bills were all but dead until next year when the Assembly reconvened.

That belief may have been somewhat thwarted if reported rumors are true and Lou Correa has reclassified SB 678 as an “urgency” bill. While it may sound somewhat bizarre, what the reclassification does is effectively give leeway to the committee and all interested parties to strike down any part of the bill they don’t like and votes will be done on the remnants. Ironically that is somewhat similar to what happened with the UIGEA.  As many will recall when John Kyl introduced his first online gambling bill in 1997 the aim was to effectively make internet gambling a federal crime punishable with jail time for both bettors and operators. Changes kept being made to the bill by other politicians for several reasons and eventually it passed in 2006 as a watered down version of the original bill. It became even less meaningful when the regulations were written for it and the banks were let off the hook if they allowed illegal transactions to go through.

So under the new “urgency” classification the tribes can cross out what they don’t like from SB 678, the horse racing industry can strike out what they don’t like and the legislators can strike out what they find unfavorable. As long as something meaningful is left that would allow for the introduction of online poker in California that bill would be voted on. But the “urgency” classification also gives the bill more strength than it would have had previously because under that provision it must be passed by 2/3 of the House and Senate and if it does so then it cannot be vetoed by the Governor. Hence if it passes with a 2/3 vote in both houses it immediately becomes a law which apparently is legal per California’s constitution.

If it proves true, then Correa would clearly be making this move because he and other legislators in the state are feeling pressure from the fact that Nevada already has an online poker site running and Delaware, New Jersey and numerous other states aren’t far behind. Thus they can only conclude that a watered-down bill is better than none.

I spoke to one of my contacts – a gambling law expert in California – to ask if he believed there was any way this bill could actually get the passed in the short time left before the Assembly is dismissed and whether he had ever witnessed anything like this before.  He responded that he hadn’t heard about Correa’s motion but was happy to respond to my question if indeed the rumors are true and Correa has changed the bill to an urgency classification.

“It’s unique and has never been tried before (using the urgency provision) as far as I know but it’s clever. What Correa will have done is thrown the ball in the courts of all interested parties and told them to take out what they don’t like so we can get this bill off the ground. There’s really no reason for the tribes and racing people not to take that initiative and if they refuse the Assembly can quickly ascertain who the trouble makers are and address them separately. Can it pass by early September? I don’t know but with all the strike-outs the bill would be pretty concise so there really wouldn’t be a whole lot to hold it up.”

If Correa has made this initiative and if indeed it works, then all parties in California should be commended for not allowing another year to pass without a resolution once and for all.

Contact Hartley via email at Hartley[at]osga[dot]com.

Read insights from Hartley Henderson every week here at OSGA and check out more from Hartley’s RUMOR MILL!

Is Bet Revolution Going Under?

Posted by on 12 Jul 2013 | Tagged as: OffShore Insiders

When sportsbooks, casinos and poker rooms start having troubles paying players, the red flags start flying. Many times payout delays are just a bump-in-the-road for online sportsbooks who have the wherewithal to withstand the constant fluctuations in today’s Internet gambling climate. However, there are places whose red flags start to fly higher and brighter once problems arise, until they eventually just flame out. Then the sportsbook or poker room runs, with players funds, shuts down and stiffs players – ending up as just another sportsbook scam.

The red flags for Bet Revolution are starting to flap in the breeze quite a bit and are on the verge of catching fire. Over two weeks ago we posted an update as a slow payout complaint became two, then three and now number a dozen. Bet Revolution answered our initial inquiries and got back to us quickly with candid responses as to the alleged problems they were experiencing. They claimed that two processors in Costa Rica stole their deposit funds and disappeared . Bet Revolution insisted that they would do the right thing and get back up and running and eventually pay their players.

Instead what has transpired is more of the same from Bet Revolution. In an about face, they have not responded to our last batch of emails, they do not answer us on their chat and as most players know, their phone lines, at this point, should just be turned off, as no one answers them. In addition, the website has not been updated since Monday and their betting lines, when posted, are late. All futures have been taken down and current players get no response or updates from the company. We asked a number of sources in Costa Rica if they had heard of not one, but two money processors who had gone out-of-business and stole sportsbook or casino funds. We did not get confirmation of rouge processors stealing from Bet Revolution, or any other books, from any of our sources.

Finally, we can’t figure out how Bet Revolution can recover if they do not accept new players while working to pay old ones. Right now, it is possible to sign-up with Bet Revolution, but they do not respond to inquiries for deposit requests. On one hand, this is good news if they are planning to run, at least they are not going after new players in a ‘deposit only’ fashion.  But, if they do have legitimate intentions to stay afloat, new money does need to come in.

We removed their rating at the outset of this mess and with these recent developments, we urge players not to deposit at Bet Revolution. If they do plan on continuing to operate, an updated website, current live odds, the ability for players to deposit and get paid along with the basic functions of answering emails, chats AND phone calls, would indicate they are making an effort to return. Right now, all this feels like is a stall tactic, perhaps until everything can be packed up as they fade to black. We hope not.

OSGA has made some initial inquiries around the industry to see if any other sportsbooks would be interested in a ‘bailout‘ of Bet Revolution should the worst occur here. But without an accurate accounting of how many players are affected and their corresponding balances, conversations have not gotten very far. In fact, as we have seen recently, many of the larger houses are just not interested in ‘bailing out’ small operations that get into trouble. Still, we remain optimistic that either Bet Revolution will recover or a larger, more established sportsbook will come to the aid of the players.

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