Wagering on awards shows is generally not very profitable unless you bet the favorites. Since 1997 when offshore sportsbooks started posting odds on the Oscars, the best picture favorite won all but 4 times, and in 3 of those instances the 2nd choice won. Only Crash, a 20/1 longshot, was an upset winner. For best actor and best actress, the favorites win even more often.  That said, there are value bets available, since so many top online sportsbooks now list odds on all categories. It’s hard to get excited about an award for best art direction but any value is worth a wager.

First, the following are sure things. If one has no problem betting 1/20 odds these are guaranteed winners. As one bettor once pointed out to me “a 5% return for a short term investment is a pretty good return and some bets are even more secure than a t-bill.” He could be right but I find it difficult to lay those types of odds for any bet. Colin Firth will win best actor, Natalie Portman will win best actress. As well Toy Story 3 will win best animated film, The Social Network will win best adapted screenplay and Inception will win best special effects. After that, there are no sure things.

For Best Supporting Actor Christian Bale is listed as low as 1/7 given the numerous awards won so far. He was nominated for his role as Dicky Eklund in The Fighter in 37 different critics and film society awards and won all but 6 of them. Unfortunately for Bale, two of those losses were quite prestigious including the BAFTA awards who gave the Oscar to Geoffrey Rush. Rush was outstanding as Colin Firth’s speech therapist in The King’s Speech and in many respects stole the show. If, as expected, the King’s Speech dominates the awards on Sunday, there’s really no reason not to give him a fair chance at pulling the upset. Over 500 members of the Academy are also members of BAFTA so if they voted for him in Britain, they very well may vote for him in the U.S. as well. At 4/1 odds Geoffrey Rush represents a great value bet.

For Best Supporting Actress, Melissa Leo is the logical choice for her role as Alice Ward in the Fighter. She was nominated for 29 critics and film society awards so far and won 16 of them, but Leo is vulnerable. Looking over the last several winners for the award, it’s clear that the Academy prefers to give this Oscar to an up and coming star and also a younger one. The category produces upsets all the time. Tilda Swinton was a prime example of where the academy chose to give it to a young, pretty up and comer over the heavily favored Cate Blanchett who was starting to become too recognized a name. At 50 Melissa Leo may be just too old to win the award.  Hailee Steinfeld is the prime example of a girl who may be ready to win the Oscar. At 14 years of age, Steinfeld stood out for her role as Mattie Ross in True Grit and was loved by critics. She has been nominated for 28 critic’s awards and won half of them. Most of the losses were to Leo but again the Academy Awards doesn’t usually give the supporting actress award to older actresses. Helena Bonham-Carter can’t be totally ignored for her role in the King’s speech either but the truth is, the King’s Speech was all about Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush so here role will likely be seen as insignificant. At odds of around 11/4 Steinfeld is a great upset bet.

For Best Director, the wrong person is favored. David Fincher won almost every early award and became a massive favorite. He lost the Director’s Guild Award on February 1, however to Tom Hooper and became the underdog. He regained favorite status when Fincher won the BAFTA despite the King’s Speech sweeping the other awards. To understand why the wrong person is favored one only needs look at the history of best director winners at the Oscars and the DGA. In its history only 8 directors didn’t win both awards and the last Oscar winner that didn’t win the DGA was in 2002 when Roman Polanski won the Oscar while Rob Marshall won the DGA. Prior to that, the last DGA award winners to lose the Oscars were in 2000, 1995, 1985 and 1972. So in the last 40 years only 5 DGA award winners didn’t win the Oscar and the only DGA winner that lost the director award when his film won best picture was Rob Marshall in 2002.  In that year, however, many voters admitted that their vote for Polanski was more of a protest vote to show that they believed he was unjustly barred from the country after raping a teenager. It’s almost certain that if the circumstances were different, Marshall would have won the best director that year. Odds have Tom Hooper as high as 7/5 to win the award. He is a steal at the price and is the best value bet on the board.

For Best Picture, it’s hard to dispute the King’s Speech. The movie was spectacular and despite being the original longshot when it lost the Golden Globe to the Social Network, the truth is that the King’s Speech is just a better all around movie. And like Shakespeare in Love, the English Patient, Out of Africa and other similar movies that won the Oscar, the King’s Speech is the feel good movie that the Academy loves and should win the award. At 1/4 odds it’s hard to justify betting, however, especially since the Social Network has a small chance at the Oscar.

Assuming the King’s Speech does dominate, it should win most of the minor awards too. One fact from recent Oscars is that when a movie does well, it tends to sweep the other awards too. For that reason the following are great value bets on the King’s Speech as well.

Best Art Direction at 6/5
Best Original Score at 9/5
Best Costume at 11/10
Best Cinematography at 6/1

The last one is more of a hunch given the odds, but True Grit and Inception which are favored for cinematography have lost a lot of support of late and no doubt numerous voters will just check The King’s Speech for everything without even considering the category.

The one category it’s hard to see the King’s Speech winning for is Film Editing which should give a token award for the Social Network.

The King’s Speech should also win best Original Screenplay but 1/5 odds are hard to justify and the Academy has been known to give the screenplay award to a secondary film when it gives the Oscar to the favorite.

The last categories are toss ups. Best Foreign Film never seems to go to the favorite and the Academy seems to like films from Europe in that category. That could hurt the favorite Biutiful.  Incendies seems to be the movie generating the most attention of late at 3/1 odds. Best song should go to the Disney movie’s song We Belong Together considering Disney movies usually win that category but at 1/2 odds it’s hard to bet on or against. And for best documentary feature, the winner is almost always a movie about war or poverty and is generally a longshot. For that reason Wasteland at 8/1 is a great value bet to upset The Inside Job and Exit through the Gift Shop.

The best value bets, in order, therefore are as follows:

Tom Hooper for Best Director
Hailee Steinfeld for Best Supporting Actress
Geoffrey Rush for Best Supporting Actor
The King’s Speech for the minor categories.

To see the latest odds for the Academy Awards go to the following link:
http://www.osga.com/Academy-Awards-Betting-Odds.html