Confessions of a Small-time Gambler – 11.10

I gotta say that for the past few weeks I have been on a bit of a roll. I just need to avoid doing stupid things, like betting on College Football or playing the Saints. This is the first week I stayed away from any wagering on Saturday. And it was kinda nice because I

I gotta say that for the past few weeks I have been on a bit of a roll. I just need to avoid doing stupid things, like betting on College Football or playing the Saints. This is the first week I stayed away from any wagering on Saturday. And it was kinda nice because I have lost for several straight weeks betting NCAA football.

Last week I stayed off of New Orleans, and of course, they won and covered. I again avoided them on Sunday and again they win BIG. However, they can go 7-0 the rest of the way and I will not bet them again. Luckily they are off this week. I guess that the biggest thing I notice, and the Saints make it really hit home for me, is that there have been no ‘go to’ teams for me; Teams that I know are going to give me a win week after week; hopefully, cashing 9 or so times a season. There is no more 16-0 Patriots or ‘09 Saints. And that is why I feel kind of lucky to still be ahead this far into the season. I have no ace in the hole this year.

Case in point. When I have reviewed my plays from this year, outside of the Saints, I have not played a single team side more than three times. I think that this may be why I am doing so well. I the past I have gotten sunk with the Farve-led Packers too many times, destroyed by various Denver squads and  victimized by the Vikings. But this year I have spread around the love and the wagers, and for a change, it is working.

I started out the day with a solid $44 play on the Baltimore Ravens. They had been playing well and I just don’t believe in Miami. This one turned out to be an easy winner. The tough game in the early set was the damn Jets. I absolutely loved this game and since I am up a bit so far this season, I put $55 on them. And sweated almost from the kickoff.  At the half, the Jets are not looking too good and are up by just three. Of course I have them at -4.  In the 3rd quarter, the Lions recovered a fumble near midfield and I started to feel light headed. This can’t be – I loved this game. Then I watch as the Lions drive down the field with little resistance and score the go ahead touchdown. I am felling a bit woozy when the kicker who was hurt, can’t come on. And the biggest kicker ever, MISSES THE EXTRA POINT. Never have seen a giant kicer come in cold and boom – off the right upright. Yes! However, it is at this same moment of euphoria and hope that I realize that I am screwed. A Jets TD and it’s a push. But the game is getting quite good and I still can’t believe the score. Then it gets worse.  The Lions put up 7, yes they made the extra point, to go up by 10. Now all hope IS lost. Two touchdowns just to get a push. But, the Jets begin to play for a tie and at this point I actually hope they lose, because there is no way I can win the play. Sanchez does a fantastic job and brings the Jets back to tie. Whatever!?! Hope is again alive . . . somewhat.

Overtime is funny, because it gives some optimism. But the chances are very slim that a TD gets scored and anything more than 2.5 covers. But, at least I am again alive. And I am thinking of Playstation, Throw the bomb, they’ll never see it coming! Naturally Ryan is playing to win, not cover. But then, the impossible becomes possible! Santonio Holmes gets a short pass and is heading for the end zone! GO, GO GOOOO, GO, NO NO No no. No, because he got tackled at the 15 or so and I knew it was all about getting the field goal unit on. Jets win, but don’t cover and I am down $15 to start the day.

Once again this week I cashed a nice 3-team teaser. I needed the points in two of the games too. I love it when that happens because I feel like I know something more than I do. I teased Atlanta down to -3 from nine and that would have lost otherwise. I teased the Bears to +3 ( across the zero from -3), and they would have pushed. I also had the Giants in the play down to -1, so for me they covered by 33! Another $20 to win $36. I think that this week I am definitely going to up the ticket for the teaser play. This little experiment has won four out of five tries.

I had a two team parlay with Green Bay and New England that I would rather not discuss. It’s hard to believe that I could be so right on one  game and so wrong on another, in the same play!

Finally, I took the Over in the Eagles/Colts game. This one seemed like low hanging fruit and with 33 points in the first half, I was cruising. However, the Philly defense really showed up and going into the 4th quarter, I was a little worried about ending up with a losing, rather than winning day. I had over 46.5! But, when The Eagles scored a TD in the fourth quarter, I knew this was a winner. Another $40 to add to the bankroll.

I am now up just under 300 bucks for the season. I am having a good time and have so far resisted to commit some of the mistakes of previous years. As for this week, no college football again, as I quest for that ‘go to’ NFL team.

Check back with next week’s Confessions mid-week. Good Luck to all of us this weekend!

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