World Series Picks -- Will the Astros Find a Feast in Game 3?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Fri, Oct 29th, 2021 1:29:35 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Atlanta Braves try to hold serve at home as they host Game 3 of the World Series on Friday night against the Houston Astros.

Preview and Pick for Game 3 of the World Series

Well, the Atlanta Braves had won 20 out of 25 games, and they took Game 1 of the World Series against the Houston Astros, but the Astros answered back with extreme prejudice in Game 2, getting to lefty Max Fried in a number of different ways.

One of those ways involved Jose Altuve smashing a home run and a double to propel the 7 - 2 victory.

MLB World Series Game 3 free pickGame 3 will start at 8:09 p.m. ET at Truist Park outside Atlanta. And at BetOnline, the Braves, using right-hander Ian Anderson, are the slight favorites over the Astros, who send Luis Garcia to the hill:

Atlanta Braves (Anderson - R) - 112
Houston Astros (Garcia - R)    + 102

Over 8.5 runs - 113
Under 8.5 runs - 107

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In the postseason, Houston has used its starting pitchers in only 45 Innings, with relievers picking up the other 61. So we have to speculate as to how long Dusty Baker will leave his starting pitcher in the game, with the bullpen having had the opportunity to rest during the travel day. And the Astros hope they can get a similar performance out of Luis Garcia to what they got last time against the Boston Red Sox. In a brilliant effort, Garcia left with two outs in the sixth inning, having given up only one hit. And he struck out seven batters.

But you can't ignore what happened to him in the three starts prior to that, as he gave up 13 runs in 8-2/3 innings, including four homers. If that version of Garcia shows up on Friday night, he won't last long.

As for Ian Anderson, we imagine Brian Snitker is hoping that he can get a very solid effort out of his youngster, who also saw action last year in the postseason. With the cracked fibula suffered by Charlie Morton in Game 1, the Braves are kind of scrambling around for efficient starting pitching options, so that they don't have to go into "bullpen" games.

One of the problems with Anderson, however, is that the unquestionably relies on his changeup, throwing it more than 31% of the time. And don't get us wrong; he is extremely good with it.

But the Astros, according to some of the stats compiled by the metrics site FanGraphs, are the second best team in the major leagues when it comes to feasting on changeups. In fact, they have almost an entire lineup comprised of guys who can exploit it. Ironically, Altuve is not one of them. But you have to remember, there's a lot of power in Houston lineup.

We must admit that some things happened that have been out of the ordinary, including a defensive lapse by the Braves that allowed at least one extra run to cross the plate in Game 2. But it might also be pretty unusual that Garcia threw his fastball with much higher velocity in his last start then he had during the regular season. Is that a one-off situation, or could we expect more of that?

These are two talented kids, but the atmosphere may promote offense. That is to say, unless Garcia goes out there and smokes the Braves the way he did the Red Sox in the NLCS Game 6. Certainly Houston should have the opportunity to take advantage of Anderson and his out-pitch, unless he wants to relegate himself to doing what he does not do best.

If you look at the five-inning prop, Houston is close to an even-money proposition at - 101. We can go with that, as well as the over in this pivotal Game 3.

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