Weekend At The Open Championship - Leaders, Adjusted Odds, Golf Stats And Picks

DeChambeau Issued 2-Shot Penalty Following Round 2

Halfway home at the Open Championship and the 2026 major at Royal Birkdale in England is producing top players and surprising performances among the leaders through 36 holes into the weekend. Sixteen players enter Saturday's third round within 4-shots of huge longshot Australian leader Lucas Herbert (-8). Top online sportsbooks have adjusted the odds to win with many top-ranked players challenging to become Champion Golfer of the Year and hoist the Claret Jug. 

That includes Bryson DeChambeau, who was scheduled to play in the final group Saturday with Herbert until R&A rules officials assessed him a 2-shot penalty for improving his lie on the 5th hole. He had made a bogey 5, and now given a triple-bogey 7 to drop him out of the final group Saturday from -7 to -5.

I'll be reviewing third-round matchups as provided by top online sportsbooks and post any of interest on X as you watch and wager on The Open. 

I have many bets and props pending including pre-tournament and adjusted win wagers with some parlayed to moneyline MLB 'Dogs for 2-3 times greater odds. Also, our big 'Dog (+220) tournament matchup posted at OSGA on Tyrrell Hatton (-3) is in position to upset Scottie Scheffler (-4), while our top 20 and 30 bets on Fleetwood and Hatton are inside both those finishing positions into the weekend, with many others pending. Tournament matchups 23-12 YTD and we'll try to chip-in a round-by-round matchup or two over the weekend at The Open. 

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Tips, Trends And Stats

Among the leaders are player profiles of some of the top players who also fit some Round 1 trends and are also among the leaders through 36 holes into the weekend at The Open. 

Each of the last 26 Open champions have been within 5 shots of the lead after Round 1. Golf researcher Justin Ray adds a neat notes section following each round for The Athletic, and he adds that 37 of the last 42 winners of The Open Championship have been within 4-shots of the lead after 36 holes. Consider that as you review the adjusted odds to win, and other props. 

Lucas Herbert was at even par and 5-shots behind following Round 1, but now leads after firing a major championship-tying record 62 including 28 on the front nine. Sam Burns needed just 21 putts in his Friday round of 62, and he moved from +2 to -5. That was the fewest putts by anyone in an Open Championship round the last 25 years.

Data Golf has live tournament stats and Herbert and Burns were top 5 in the field in strokes gained Putting in Round 2. Tee to Green leaders top 10 were Burns, Herbert, Rahm, Alex Fitzpatrick, Scheffler, Young and Hatton. Contenders who were top 10 in Approach included Rahm, Scheffler and Burns, while Around the Green leades among the contenders were Burns, Alex Fitzpatrick, Gerard and Herbert. The stats can be quite volatile for players round-by-round, and as the pressure mounts and winds pick up on Saturday and Sunday, were likely to see the top-ranked players emerge noting that each of the last 12 Open Championship winners ranked top 40 in the world rankings. Herbert (97) and Suber (115) are the outliers at the top who rank outside the top 40, along with current contenders Molinari (243), Detry (80) and Wallace (72). 

Check back for more stats and notes as you review the adjusted odds below from BetOnline. 

Adjusted Odds 

You can see many of the top players odds to win the Open Championship in my pre-tournament preview of The Open at OSGA. Following Round 1, some of the top players odds to win adjusted and have since dropped further as I've listed the leaders pretournament odds and adjusted odds following Round 1 and Round 2. Odds are subject to change, and available for live/in-game betting during Rounds 3 and 4. 

Score, Player, Pre-Tourney odds, Round 1, Round 2 adjusted odds. 

-8: Herbert, +35000, +27500, +1000
-6: Young, +4000, +500, +650
-6: Gerard, +10000, +4000, +1600
-6: Suber, +30000, +2000, +3000
-5: Burns, +5000, +16000, +1500
-5: Si Woo Kim, +5000, +3300, +1400
-5: DeChambeau, +8000, +1800, +1100
-4: Scheffler, +850, +500, +550
-4: Fleetwood, +1600, +1600, +1300
-4: Rahm, +2200, +2200, +1400
-4: MacIntyre, +3500, +1400, +2200
-4: Alex Fitzpatrick, +7000, +65000, +3300
-4: Cauley, +6500, +5500, +6000 
-4: Molinari, +35000, +11000, +8000
-4: Detry, +20000, +8000, +7000 
-4: Wallace, +20000, +13000, +5000 
-3: Hatton, +3300, +4000, +3500
-3: Aberg, +3000, +7000, +3500
-3: Spaun, +8000, +7000, +7000
-3: Lowry, +6000, +4000, +4500
-2: Morikawa, +3300, +1400, +6000
-2: Gotterup, +3500, +3500, +6000  
-2: Reed, +8000, +6000, +8000 
-2: Straka +15000, +6600, +12500
-2: Adam Scott, +13500, +15000
-2: Sungjae Im, +15000, +4500, +25000
-2: Conners, +14000, +12000, +20000
-2: Coody, +14000, +6000, +20000
-1: McIlroy, +900, +2200, +3000
-1: Justin Thomas, +4500, +15000
-1: Griffin, +10000, +8000, +25000
-1: Matsuyama, +9000, +18000, +20000 

Top players odds to finish top 5 following Round 2: 

Scheffler (+120), Young (+140), Herbert (+175), Fleetwood, DeChambeau and Si Woo Kim (+225), Rahm and Burns (+250), Gerard (+275), MacIntyre (+350), Suber (+400), Alex Fitzpatrick (+450), McIlroy (+550).

BetOnline has posted a win prop following Round 2:

-160: The Field to win
+133: Scheffler, Young, DeChambeau or Herbert to win

More updates as availabe on X with information you can bet on. 

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FairwayJay is a leading sports betting industry analyst, handicapper, content creator, golf writer, reporter and poker player based in Las Vegas. He's been covering major sports including from a betting perspective for more than two decades. FairwayJay is also on the scene for major sports and poker events plus industry conferences as a credentialed media member. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.