Preview and prediction for the MNF matchup between the Cowboys and Giants
The Dallas Cowboys (1-1) travel to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey to tackle the New York Giants (2-0) on Week 3 Monday Night Football. The AFC East showdown betting odds currently show the Giants as a slight 1-point favorite at many leading online sportsbooks with the largest U.S. facing sportsbook on the globe BookMaker down to pick 'em.
The Giants were as high as a -2.5 favorites last Wednesday, and FairwayJay released the Cowboys +1.5 on Saturday as part of a huge Week 3 card that featured 8 NFL picks. After going 5-2 ATS Sunday on his underdog only picks with FIVE outright 'Dog winners, he's counting on the Cowboys to complete a strong week with another 'Dog winner. FairwayJay has fired out 18 underdog picks so far this season and currently 11-6 ATS with the Cowboys MNF result pending.
The Giants vs Cowboys over/under is down to 39 points - the third lowest of the week. The other two games both went over the total (PIT/CLE and HOU/CHI). Week 3 NFL scoring averaged just 41 points per game, and now just 42.4 PPG this season with over/unders now 17-30 in 2022.
FairwayJay 2022 YTD Results
Week 1 was a 4-3 ATS result with three outright winners. Week 2 was 2-1 with two outright winners. Week 3 is FairwayJay's best so far and third straight winning week to start the 2022 season. Following a record-breaking 70% season that saw FairwayJay go 28-12 ATS in 2022, the leading NFL handicapper is now 141-97 ATS (59.2%) with 78 outright underdog winners the past 5+ years posting NFL underdog only picks at Offshore Gaming Association.
MNF Preview - Dallas at New York
Here is FairwayJay's MNF preview with added stats, info and chip-ins from additional sources.
The Giants are 2-0 with a pair of narrow wins. The running game led by Saquon Barkley has been among the best in the league through two weeks averaging 170 yard per game including 238 rushing yards in a 21-20 Week 1 win over the Titans. Barkley has rushed for 236 yards at 6.1 yards per rush, and 106 yards or more vs. the Cowboys will move him to the league leader in rushing past Nick Chubb of the Browns. No doubt the Giants will lean on Barkley and the running game after the Buccaneers rushed for 152 yards on 33 carries in a Week 1 win over the Cowboys. The Giants have rushed the ball 32 and 33 times in their opening two wins this season.
Saquon Barkley is the most popular player to score the games first TD at +600 odds at many online sportsbooks, and also anytime TD scorer (-120). At one leading online sportsbook (BetMGM), the Giants have taken approx. 60% of the spread bets and money.
Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliott leads the Cowboys with 104 rushing yards at 4.2 yards per rush. Backup QB Cooper Rush will start again with Dak Prescott out, and Rush completed 19-of-31 passes for 235 yards and 1 TD (zero INT) in starting last week's last-second 20-17 win over the Bengals.
While my rushing stats and guidelines favor the Giants in this match-up, it's not as significant of an edge as you might expect. Recall, the Giants defense allowed Christian McCaffrey to rush 15 times for 102 yards and 146 overall, and in Week 1 Derrick Henry had 82 rushing yards on 21 carries. However, after reading my rushing stats and ATS info below, you may elect to reduce your wager or even pass the game preflop and consider in-game and live betting options. Still, I project the Cowboys to out-gain the Giants overall with their defense hopefully making the difference as the Giants have allowed a league-high 8 sacks through two games and Giants QB Daniel Jones is not likely to continue his completing passes at a career-best 70.9% through two games. The Cowboys sacked Bengals QB Joe Burrow 6 times in last week's last-second home 'Dog win, 20-17.
As I mentioned and anticipated in Week 3, there would be a correction for teams who had a rushing advantage of 30 yards or more in a game, and ran the ball at least 30 times. Teams that out-rush their opponents by 30 yards or more in a NFL game are historically about a 75% ATS winner. This season they were just 11-9 ATS through two weeks before going 8-1 SU/ATS in Week 3, pending the MNF game. Also, teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game are 20-5-1 SU and 20-6 ATS this season after those teams went 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS so far in Week 3.
Here are some additional stats and info provided by sports betting colleague and respected handicapper Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports, who provided some solid situations and ATS info in Sunday's Dolphins 'Dog winner over the Bills.
- The Cowboys offense and the Giants defense have suffered among the most injuries in the NFL. Dallas is without QB Dak Prescott, LT Tyron Smith, LG Connor McGovern, and now TE Dalton Schultz will likely be sidelined. New York will not have CB Aaron Robinson (appendix surgery), DT Leonard Williams due to a sprained MCL, and starting edge duo Kayvon Thibodeaux/Azeez Ojulari did not suit up in the first two games.
- Cowboys WR Michael Gallup (knee) is getting a full slate of reps this week in practice and has a chance to make his season debut. Wide Receiver CeeDee Lamb (103 receiving yards), seems to have a favorable matchup across from backup third round rookie cornerback Cordale Flott with starting CB Robinson not in uniform.
- Giants DT Leonard Williams had 4 pressures before being sidelined last week and fellow interior defender Dexter Lawrence ranks 19th in pass rushing efficiency. However, it is unlikely Lawrence will be able to sustain his efficiency due to the extra attention he will receive without Williams on the field.
- The Giants are 2-0 despite being outgained by a half yard per play. New York’s offense has no explosiveness, registering a league-low 3% of the plays going for 20+ yards.
- Daniel Jones should be in trouble throughout this game. Dallas edge rusher Micah Parsons ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency and the All-Pro will go against rookie RT Evan Neal.
- Jones will not be able to dump it off to Saquon Barkley with as much success when he faces pressure. The Cowboys allowed only 5.1 yards per target to running backs last season (6th).
Good luck in your NFL betting and pursuit of profit. Despite proven ATS winners posting and betting my NFL picks, remember to never bet a game solely because it’s the final matchup of the week or a prime time offering. You can pass on the game, or make other wagers and prop bets along with in-game live betting as interested. As always, have fun while being responsible in betting on the the second-to-last NFL game of September during Responsible Gaming Education Month (RGEM).
FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay