Vacant NIGC Chair Leaves Tribes Vulnerable in Prediction Markets Fight

Prediction Markets Pose a Growing Threat to Tribal Gaming

The lack of a chairperson at the National Indian Gaming Commission (NIGC) is causing many problems with the Tribal groups who are trying to deal with the threat that prediction markets are causing for them by taking away revenue from Tribal gaming. The last permanent chairperson of the NIGC was E. Sequoyah Simermeyer, who served as the chairperson from November 2019 to February 2024. He resigned in February 2024 and was replaced by Sharon Avery, who kept the position on an interim basis until January 2026 and when her term ran out, she was never replaced. The Commission has been without a chair since. Avery remains as the Associate Commissioner, but she does not have the same authority to make critical decisions and changes, which is exclusively reserved for the permanent chairperson.

The NIGC is a federal regulatory industry with its chairperson reporting to the Minister of the Department of the Interior, which today is Doug Burgum. Prior to Burgum, the head of the Interior was Deb Haaland, and if that name rings a bell, it’s because she was instrumental in stopping attempts by West Flagler Associates, which owned Magic City Casino, to cancel the gambling compact in 2021 agreed to between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and the Seminole Tribe. Opponents of the Florida compact argued that the IGRA forbade the compact because all gambling was not taking place on Tribal land, and though it seemed there was a legitimate case to intervene, Deb Haaland chose not to let the 45-day statutory review period lapse and hence gave tacit approval to the compact. It is believed she convinced President Joe Biden not to fight the state on the issue. Commercial casinos, believed to be backed by DraftKings and FanDuel and some anti-gambling groups, sued Haaland over the decision not to block the compact. But the courts ruled that the hub and spoke model that the Seminoles were using that involved sports betting at parimutuel locations and on the Hard Rock app was legal since the bets were processed on computers located on Tribal lands.

So, when Avery’s term expired, Tribal groups hoped that Trump or Burgum would appoint someone to take on the chairperson’s role. Yet, as of today that position still remains vacant. The reason this is an issue, is that the NIGC is a three-person panel, but key decisions are limited to the chair, including issuing notices of violation when there are safety concerns at Indian casinos, certifying management contracts, overseeing compacts, and approving new Tribal gaming laws. They also generally take up advocacy for any actions that can affect tribal gambling. The full list of actions reserved for the full-time chairperson can be viewed here under Commission Actions.

Prediction Markets Pose a Growing Threat to Tribal Gaming

Tribes Take Legal Action Against Kalshi and Robinhood

What is particularly causing frustration for Tribal interests, is the lack of direction on Prediction Markets and any advocacy to stop them. Along with several states, 8 different Tribes located in Wisconsin, New Mexico and California have sued Kalshi and Robinhood saying that the prediction markets have siphoned money away from casinos, and that the sports-related contracts offered by Kalshi, Polymarket and others are illegal gambling and violate the rules under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA). Moreover the Mohegan Tribe are intervening in battles to hold Kalshi accountable for gambling in Connecticut that they say is strictly under their purview. And last week the Indian Gaming Association (IGA) held a webinar featuring Victor Rocha, the conference chairman for the IGA, David Z Bean, the chairman of the Association, and Jason Gibbs the Executive Director of the IGA. It can be viewed here: The New Normal: The Chairman's Report: Fighting Back Against Prediction Markets.​​​ In the webinar they discussed prediction markets and how it was a threat to Tribal sovereignty under the IGRA.

Indian Gaming Association Pushes Back Against Prediction Markets

The IGA, which is a non-profit organization that has 184 Tribes as members discussed steps that they, along with other Tribal Regulatory Bodies and Tribal Courts, can take to stop prediction markets from continuing to offer sports betting and possibly even casino betting, which it seems some prediction market sites have discussed. David Bean noted that the Prediction Market sites are taking steps to pretend they are not offering traditional sports betting, such as not posting odds on games but disguising it another way instead. And both Bean and Rocha said the CFTC are trying to “backfill issues” before the legality of Prediction Markets ends up at the U.S. Supreme Court, which all involved believes is inevitable. The panel noted that they are not opposed to other products the CFTC controls like cryptocurrency or trading on true commodities like gold or oil prices, but they draw the line at sports betting, which they said is just gambling. The panel also acknowledged that it’s clear prediction markets couldn’t survive without sports betting and for that reason they realize the CFTC along with Kalshi, Polymarket,  Robinhood and other Prediction Market interests well never agree to it without a fight.

The panel also mentioned that their biggest frustration with the CFTC in particular is that states have always had a say on gaming laws within the states and Tribal rights were always considered, but the CFTC issued a statement to the Prediction Market sites to ignore all rulings by states because the CFTC supersedes any state laws and hence the Tribes were effectively told their self interests are irrelevant as far as the federal government is concerned.

Could the Prediction Markets Fight Reach the Supreme Court?

Why the Lack of an NIGC Chair Could Become Critical

Should the issue reach the U.S. Supreme Court, as most believe is inevitable, the lack of a chairperson at the NIGC becomes an issue. Along with not having anyone at the federal level to advocate for Tribal rights, there is no way to implement new Tribal laws to deal with prediction markets on Tribal lands or in jurisdictions where Tribes are given the exclusive control of all gambling. What wasn’t mentioned on the recent panel, but is a clear concern. Deb Haaland is a Native American herself and is an enrolled member of the Laguna Pueblo Tribe. Consequently, she had personal reasons to fight for Tribal sovereignty as the Minister of the Department of the Interior, but Doug Burgum has no Native ancestry and has parents that came from England. As a result he does not have the same vested interest to fight for the Tribes.

Trump Administration Ties to Prediction Markets Complicate the Fight

More importantly, President Trump has a vested interest in seeing prediction markets succeed and will likely put blocks on anything he believes stands in the way.  Trump put out a Truth Social post saying that the CFTC must have full control over prediction markets because he wants America to lead the way. And he has made some controversial comments and decisions related to Native Americans, which makes one wonder if he views them as just a hindrance. In 1993 while trying to expand his casinos in New Jersey he questioned the validity of Tribal groups on a conference call trying to block the casinos saying “they don’t look like Indians to me.” And as many know he tried to force the Washington Commanders to bring back the name Washington Redskins to be able to play in the city and similarly suggested the Cleveland Guardians revert to Cleveland Indians with its Chief Wahoo logo, which most Native groups called racist and offensive. So, unlike Haaland who was instrumental in convincing Joe Biden to side with the Seminoles in the Florida compact issue, it’s doubtful Burgum will have any similar sway over Trump.

Trump Media, Kalshi and Polymarket Connections

And of course, President Trump has a clear vested interest in ensuring Prediction Markets remain profitable and relevant since Trump Media and Technology Group announced plans to launch Truth Predict, which will be integrated into Crytpo.com’s ecosystem. Trump Media has been promoting Crytpo.com regularly since. Moreover Donald Trump Jr. is a senior advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket and it is believed will be the point person for Truth Predict when it launches.

All this seems to indicate that when the issue of Prediction Markets reaches SCOTUS, the judges will either say it’s not in their current interest to address the lawsuits filed by states and Tribes, and will kick the can down the road  and allow Prediction Markets to be operating as is with no real way to stop them. Or they will take the case but will say the CFTC is a federal agency that takes precedence over state laws.

It’s for that exact reason many skeptics believe Simermeyer was never replaced by a new full-time NIGC chairperson. I spoke to an analyst who has written about Prediction Markets regularly since the courts ruled in favor of Kalshi and he believes the legality of the markets won’t be resolved before 2029.

“It’s clear that everyone knows sports on prediction markets is nothing more than gambling which is reserved to the states under their gambling commissions, but it’s also clear that the CFTC and its backers are not willing to relinquish any control until they absolutely have to, and as long as the Supreme Court does not issue a firm ruling prohibiting it, they can continue as is. And let’s be honest, while Prediction Markets are a major issue in the gambling community, it’s pretty irrelevant for the Supreme Court. They have far bigger issues to settle right now like birthright citizenship and voting rights and Prediction Markets just aren’t on their radar, particularly if the President has indicated to the courts it’s an issue he feels they should address.

The problem for states and Tribes that are trying to stop sports betting on prediction markets is that with every passing day, the prediction markets will become such a normal part of life that when the courts agree to hear the cases, they may decide to come up with a solution to allow it while also looking like they are defending state’s rights as they did when they repealed PASPA. And no doubt the prediction markets will continue to tweak the product so that even though they will clearly be offering gambling on sports it will not appear to be the case. There will be a clear distinction between what DraftKings offers on the Super Bowl line and what they offer on DraftKings Predictions and that will be the basis for allowing both.

Why do I say each passing day is a problem? Think about it. Until the 2024 elections nobody really even heard of Kalshi or if they did, it was pretty foreign. But now Kalshi and Polymarket are household names. More importantly aside from Kalshi and Polymarket you have a slew of other prediction market sites including the one the President has started and of course the ones that gambling sites like FanDuel, DraftKings and BetFanatics have launched and they are just going to become more popular and profitable. So in 2 ½ years time when there is a new President and the Supreme Court possibly agrees to take up the issue, not only be Kalshi, Polymarket and the CFTC be pleading their case to formally legalize it, but also the big gambling companies and most likely representatives from the Trump family and Crypto.com. If that’s the case my hunch is that SCOTUS will simply say that without a lot of opposition aside from the Tribes and a few states they are going to decide it’s legal just as they did in 2017 with the repeal of PASPA.”

What Happens Next for Tribes and Prediction Markets?

So if all this proves true, where does that leave the Tribes? It’s uncertain. But  if the Tribes decide the solution is to launch their own prediction markets they can’t do so until a chairperson is appointed at the NIGC, and no doubt Burgum and Trump know that, which is why there is no urgency to appoint anyone for that position. It’s unfortunate but it is reality.

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