NFL Week 15 preview and picks

The closing stretch of the 2025 NFL season has many contending teams pushing towards the playoffs and positioning with the No. 1 seed and first round bye in the AFC and NFC up for grabs. Three key games involving playoff hopefuls and No. 1 seeds will draw more watch and wager action on Sunday. 

- Buffalo (9-4) at New England (11-2)
- Green Bay (9-3-1) at Denver (11-2)
- Detroit (8-5) at Los Angeles Rams (10-3)

Playoff Picture

The defending NFC North champion Detroit Lions are actually outside the top-7 for a playoff spot trailing the San Franciso 49ers (9-4) and Chicago Bears (9-4) with the Seattle Seahawks (10-3) the top Wild Card who would host a playoff game if the playoffs started this week. The 49ers are a quiet contender who have suffered numerous injuries, and will be favored in their next three games before a season finale at home against the Seattle.

The Seahawks are tied on top with the Rams in the NFC West with a Rams-Seahawks rematch next Thursday night in Seattle to kick off Week 16. The Rams hold the tiebreaker edge having beat the Seahawks 21-19 on Nov. 19.

Detroit and Chicago battle in Week 18 on Jan. 4, and the Lions put a beatdown on the Bears 51-21 in Week 2. The Bears get a rematch with the Packers next Saturday in Chicago with a chance to be the only NFL team this season to go from worst to first and still win the NFC North division. The Buccaneers (7-7) losing to the Falcons 29-28 to kick off Week 16 was a big win for BetOnline and top online sportsbooks after the Atlanta rallied from a 28-14 deficit in the 4th quarter to pull of the upset as a TD underdog. The Bucs now trail the Carolina Panthers (7-6) for the AFC South division title and only playoff spot coming from that division. 

The AFC has Denver and New England tied for the best record with the Broncos (42%) a slight favorite to get the No. 1 seed over the Patriots (38%), according to Next Gen Stats current playoff probability model. However, New England has faced a historically weak schedule that ranks as the easiest in the league by margin with the Broncos facing the second-easiest schedule, according to the DVOA ratings. The Bills are a 96% favorite to make the playoffs, but must beat the Patriots to have any chance to win the AFC East with a Patriots win securing the division title Sunday. The Broncos are riding a 10-game winning streak with 7 of those wins by 3-points or less. However, Denver has a tough closing strech with three home games against playoff teams Packers, Jaguars and Chargers in Week 18 and Christmas Day at Kansas City. The defending AFC champion Chiefs have only about a 10% chance to make the playoffs needing to win all four games against the Chargers, Titans, Broncos and Raiders and still get help from other teams.

The Rams (45%) have a larger edge to be the NFC No. 1 seed over the Seahawks (32%) and Packers (12%). 

Looking ahead to the Super Bowl on Feb. 8, leading online sportsbooks have adjusted the advance betting line to NFC -2.5, and that's a bet looking at the strength of the NFC versus more pretenders in the AFC. Look no further than this week's Packers-Broncos matchup this week in Denver to see Green Bay a 2-point road favorite. On a neutral field like Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, the Packers would be a bigger favorite closer to 4+ points, and especially if they beat the Broncos Sunday. So the Rams or Seahawks would be a bigger favorite over all AFC teams in Super Bowl LX.

Seems this line will only rise and cross over the key number 3 if the top NFC teams continue to play well and stay healthy, especially at quarterback. Note too that the Eagles, our Super Bowl pick and bet last year were favored at Kansas City and won, lost in overtime at LA Chargers recently as a favorite and lost at home to the Broncos as a 4-point favorite. The Eagles also won at Green Bay as a 1-point favorite, and won again the next week over the Lions as a 2.5 point favorite in mid-November with those two teams essentially rated even. Point is that the NFC is far deeper with more quality Super Bowl contenders than the AFC, which could easily produce and entrant like the Bills, who are now favored at New England with Buffalo a popular pick preseason and midseason to win the Super Bowl. Buffalo and Denver hold the hopes of the AFC to keep the current Super Bowl spread at near 3 points.   

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NFL Week 15 Odds

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live/in-game betting. Point spread on favorites and division games in bold. 

- Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-6), 44 - Thur, Falcons win 29-28
- Arizona at Houston (-10), 42
- Las Vegas at Philadelphia (-11.5), 38.5
- New York Jets at Jacksonville (-13), 41.5
- Cleveland at Chicago (-7.5), 39
- Buffalo (-1) at New England, 49.5
- Baltimore (-2.5) at Cincinnati, 51.5
- LA Chargers at Kansas City (-5 / 5.5), 41.5
- Washington at New York Giants (-2.5), 46.5
- Indianapolis at Seattle (-13.5), 43
- Green Bay (-2) at Denver, 42.5 
- Carolina (-2.5) at New Orleans, 40.5
- Detroit at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5), 55
- Tennessee at San Francisco (-12.5), 44.5
- Minnesota at Dallas (-5.5 / 6), 47.5 - SNF
- Miami at Pittsburgh (-3), 41 - MNF

Injuries, Weather And Wind

Check out more Week 15 injury reports, and monitor the NFL weather with freezing temperatures near 12 degress in Chicago and also cold (20-30 degrees) in Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England and Pittsburgh on Monday night. 

NFL Week 15 Picks

- Picks: Steelers 
- Opinions: Browns, Patriots, Chiefs, Lions, 49ers 

3-team parlay: Chiefs, 49ers, Steelers
2-team 'Dog parlay: Lions, Vikings 

Update MNF: The Dolphins (6-7) have won 4-straight while the Steelers (7-6) need a win to stay on top of the AFC North following the Ravens (7-7) win Sunday. Pittsburgh has won 11-straight at home on Monday Night Football under head coach Mike Tomlin. And ESPN reports that the Dolphins have lost 13 consecutive games, including the playoffs, when the kickoff temperature is 40 degrees or colder. It will be below 20 degrees in Pittsburgh Monday night, and Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is 0-7 in sub-40 degree temps with last week's win at New York just above 40 degrees. 

Last week's picks and opinions went 2-2 ATS and now 9-4 ATS the last four weeks (6-2 picks). Our handicap and process proved accurate in correctly identifying the rushing edge discrepancy with the Ravens over the Steelers and Bills over Bengals. The Ravens outrushed the Steelers 217-34 with 40 attempts to 17, yet the quarterback play from Lamar Jackson was poor and costly in a 27-22 defeat for the Ravens (-5.5), although NFL admitted officials incorrect calls against the Ravens including late in the game likely cost Baltimore a victory as well. The Bills (-5.5) won 39-34 scoring just missing the point spread cover after taking a 11 point lead and then allowing a late Bengals touchdown. Buffalo stampeded their way on the ground with a 183-63 rushing edge and 29-19 attempts. Read more about rushing yardage and attempts to see how terribly unfortunate those ATS losses (and SU win) were for the Ravens and Bills, who were on the short end of turnovers but only by one. 

Follow along with our weekly NFL tips, totals and teasers with game totals 7-3 since Week 12 (2-0 top totals tips) and more in Week 15 including a top total on a key game. 

Recall our NFL underdog picks went 11-1 ATS with 9 outright winners in December 2023 when Fairway's Forecast produced 57% ATS winners posting at OSGA from 2017-2023. Then last year in 2024, NFL favorites had a historic season, and were covering spreads at a record rate from Week 11 forward.   

NFL Player Props

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor - Over 19.5 rushing attempts
Ravens RB Derek Henry - Over 17.5 rushing attempts
Commanders RB Chris Rodriguez - Over 50.5 rushing yards
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson - Over 61.5 receiving yards (added, 70+ yards at +120) 

Check back for more this weekend. 

Stats note: Rams QB Matthew Stafford has faced his former team Detroit Lions three times since the trade.

- 367 yards in a 1 point loss
- 334 yards in a 9 point win 
- 317 yards in a 6 point loss

His passing yards prop was hit from 271.5 to 281.5 yards for Sunday's Week 15 games against Detroit. 

Posted NFL player props split last week (1-1) following our worst week, but still winning overall this season and 18-13 since Week 3, which followed a 12-0 run.

Defensive Stats 

Four key defensive stats are often linked to SU and ATS success. 

- Yards per play
- Defensive points allowed
- Yardage differential
- Defensive yards per rush 

Last week, teams that held the advantage over their opponent in all four categories went 4-1 ATS in competitively lined games (6 points or less). Follow along this week as these teams have the edge in all four categories. 

- Patriots, Ravens, Browns, Broncos, Vikings

Week 16 Lookahead 

Some big games kickoff NFL Week 16 action on Thursday and Saturday, Dec. 20. 

- Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (-1), 46.5 - Thursday
- Green Bay (-3) at Chicago, 45.5 

The Super Bowl champions and first place Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) play at Washingon on Saturday as well. 

Sunday's first place showdown Bucs-Panthers in the NFC South could determine the division winner with the other team unlikely to make the playoffs as a wild card. 

- Tampa Bay (-2.5) at Carolina, 44.5
- LA Chargers at Dallas (-3), 48.5
- Jacksonville at Denver (-2.5), 43
- Pittsburgh at Detroit (-6), 49.5
- New England at Baltimore (-1), 48 - SNF
- San Francisco (-6.5) at Indianapolis, 46 - MNF 

Follow more of our NFL coverage and check back for any additions as we chip-in more NFL picks, props and parlays with information you can bet on. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.