Odds to win the Super Bowl shift dramatically on news of the GOAT signing with Tampa Bay
It was one of those "where were you" moments that many will remember for a lifetime. Where were you learning Elvis was dead? John Lennon or JFK was shot? When man walked on the moon. There aren't too many in professional sports that leave that kind of impression.
Leave it to Tom Brady to select a day theoretically all U.S. sports had come to a halt due to the Coronavirus to confirm he was leaving the New England Patriots after two decades of unparalleled greatness. Yes, the GOAT (greatest of all time) for those still not aware of that acronym has a way of creating the ultimate theater. And on St. Patrick's Day yet, won't diminish many memories either.
For me it was speeding through an ultra-sanitizing workout in the gym. Though I knew it was coming, I saw the immediate official announcement via ESPN on the gym's television monitors. I felt sadness and empathy reaching out for the club's manager, a very cute woman I've seen wearing nothing but ultra-loyal Patriots shirts and attire since I joined up.
I learned she was in her back-office weeping. But more venting angry torture toward New England owner Robert Kraft for not satisfying Brady's every demand. Wishing a much more powerful evil force and sentence come upon him than experienced at the Orchids of Asia Day Spa in South Florida. Could we possibly imagine an NFL with Tom Brady wearing anything but a New England Patriots #12 uniform?
It was useless to tell her it wasn't about money or anything against Kraft or the Patriots, who likely would have matched the Bucs offer. It's about challenges. Not one quarterback had already ever accomplished what he has in NFL football history. Not even his hero, Joe Montana, who tried it in a second Chiefs uniform late in his career. And not even Peyton Manning winning the Super Bowl with the Broncos. Despite Manning's incredible greatness or a John Elway, Johnny Unitas, etc., will they be remembered above Brady?
Only Seconds Later
Only a Tom Brady could perfectly time this opportunity to announce his career direction. Bettors across America have been starving and will continue starving for a while awaiting an opportunity to wager on a true competitive event. No, we won't include curling, Turkish soccer or the upcoming Wrestlemania for purpose of a respectful discussion. Only horse racing continues daily online at many top sportsbooks to pacify us purists, while the grandstands and clubhouses at the tracks themselves remain empty.
However, the NFL future books from Vegas to New Jersey and across the world were rocked and unbalanced when Brady sent notice he’ll be leaving his current job. As an example, look at the current future book at major offshore sportsbook powerhouse BetOnline:
|Team||Odds to Win Super Bowl LV|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+650|
|San Francisco 49ers||+1000|
|New Orleans Saints||+1600|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+1800|
|New England Patriots||+2500|
|Green Bay Packers||+3300|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+4000|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+5000|
|Los Angeles Rams||+5000|
|New York Jets||+10000|
|New York Giants||+15000|
Anyone's first glance at this list will notice the Patriots at 25-1 and that may not be good enough odds to take. That is, not knowing who will steer the ship when the automatic favorite for almost twenty years is now gone. It may be more of a 'wise-guy' selection over the next few weeks IF the Pats pull out some major surprise for a very talented and experienced QB to take over.
Interesting, it may leave either the Chiefs (+650) or the Ravens (+800) if you're conceding them as the only two teams with a chance to now represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. That wasn't the case last year with Brady and the Pats a formidable threat. More interesting, is the up and coming Buffalo Bills, currently rated below New England at +2800. Seemingly without a Brady-less team in their AFC East way.
All the value may be on the NFC side, whereas they say in horse racing, "you can throw a blanket over the field". As many as seven teams are not far separated in odds from last year's champion 49ers at +1000 to the Eagles at +2500. I say not separated as odds for many of these teams are likely to change significantly after the first six weeks of the regular season.
Not the case last year with Brady confidently in charge and the Pats assumed to be among the top four teams vying for a Super Bowl title. Currently his new team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are an incredibly overvalued +1800. Last Monday, those Bucs were a forgotten +4000 with 30/30 man Jameis Winston in charge. Yes, NFL football is still played with a 45-man roster. And yes, I still know this guy is the GOAT. That is why books have the Bucs listed to win the Super Bowl at 18-1 instead of a realistic 25-1.
Next Hero for the Patriots
No mere mortal fills these shoes in Foxboro. Not even miracle man Nick Foles, signing on Wednesday with the Chicago Bears. Da Bears are currently listed at +5000 at BetOnline but expect those numbers to drop with optimism at all preferred sportsbooks he can part the Red Sea again next February. Good news for the +25000 Washington Redskins, as the Jacksonville Jaguars, with Gardner Minshew now at the helm, may dip to the bottom of the list by opening day. Many recall Minshew was drafted by the Jags in the sixth round, just like Brady about twenty years ago. So, who knows perhaps a bright Jacksonville future?
What We Do Know
What we do know is this year offers perhaps the greatest wagering value opportunity in the NFL Super Bowl future book. We say that because Brady's departure, along with so many other quarterbacks changing teams, creates a great deal of uncertainty and anxiety within the list. That in turn has maximized odds for individuals to invest for whoever they feel confidence in.
Unlike the NBA, where before the first dribble we can discount 80% of all teams from a potential championship, the one game NFL elimination system automatically creates better wagering opportunity. Subtract the yearly "automatic Brady and the Patriots" contention and it creates better value going into this specific season.
I'm not recommending any one AFC or NFC team to pinpoint while in Coronavirus lockdown. What I am strongly advising is selecting YOUR team (or two) to win the Lombardi Trophy while the best potential opportunities may currently be on the board. Shop aroundthe list of preferred sportsbooks to zone in. Yes, I know it's all about the money. But also do it for the same reason Tom is making his move. Do it for the challenge.
I would imagine all the fine print within his huge contract is being meticulously combed over by the GOAT and his team of agents and attorneys. Note to Tom: make sure to include a clause you will never appear in one of those horrid orange Bucs vintage game uniforms from the past! After all, Superman would never agree to fly in a pink cape nor wear glasses saving Metropolis for promotional purposes. No matter how much money OR challenge . . .
Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, including previews and picks from Glenn, click here.