The #1 and 2 College Football Teams Won Easily, But Lost Big Last Saturday



Glenn examines why betting huge favorites in NCAA football often will bite you and angles towards this weekend's Pats-Fins matchup.

While Clemson and Alabama’s 'back door' cover losses were painful for some, they provided great lessons for sharp handicappers.

Judging 24-3 at the end of the third quarter, the Clemson-Texas A&M game was realistically decided.  Maybe on the scoreboard, but hardly over for nail biting bettors clinging to their -16 to -16.5 spread hopes on the Tigers. Hate to be obvious, but isn't the object of a football game (or any sporting event) still to WIN, not cover the spread? 

*The answer to that question in college football is Yes. However, the question about prioritizing a spread was in severe question last Saturday in Clemson, South Carolina and Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

Clemson-Texas A&M "Thriller"

Take note handicappers that it’s become almost scripted for the high rated ABC Saturday Night  College Football games to include both exciting play and an even more exciting climax.  While Clemson and Texas A&M wasn’t exactly memorable, anyone wagering on the traditional game line had more than enough incentive to stay tuned throughout. 

The only difference between these "prime-time" NCAA games vs. late Sunday afternoon NFL games are the stark differences in wagering action.  It is quite rare to ever see a double-digit spread in any feature NFL game due to the more competitive play.  Here however, although watching two Top 20 NCAA teams, it’s still common to forecast more than a two-touchdown favorite. 

While playing ferocious defense, Clemson built a serviceable 17-3 lead but not fully confident of covering their -16.5 final line advantage listed at most preferred sportsbooks. A few top offshore books including Bovada and 5Dimes even had Clemson banged down to -16 due to heavy late action on Texas A&M.  On offense, future Heisman nominee Trevor Lawrence has yet to truly dominate for the Tigers, echoing many performances from last season. 

Going into the third quarter, only a cautious sigh of relief was allowed for Clemson bettors with a rushing touchdown to make it 24-3 at the 5:50 mark and most of the second half left to play.  It seemed that a "script" was being served to the Saturday night audience, begging the casual audience to hang around. No doubt fervent bettors would dare change the channel. 

Almost on cue, both teams punted back to each other several times in a game already long decided.  As if it was a chick flick requiring a very happy or sad ending, Texas A&M got the ball with 2:00 minutes left but no reasonable hope to win the game. 

Like a crowd of paid extras, it seemed no Clemson fans left their seats early and were screaming loudly.  Anyone tuning in noticing the lopsided score would believe the game (or another national championship) was on the line.  No pun intended; it was. 

With only six seconds remaining, Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond completed a TD pass to wide receiver Jalen Wydermyer for a back-breaking 24-10 cover for Aggie bettors.  It reinforced the wave of late money wagered on A&M and providing the ultimate drama for any bettor staying up late for a decision.  It again proved these games are “Saturday Night Fever” on the scoreboard and the betting board as well. 

Roll over Tide 

A simple rule many astute handicappers preach.  Never lay 54 points.  No matter if wagering on football, basketball or pocket ball.  That wasn’t disproven last Saturday in Tuscaloosa, Alabama and maybe should have inspired a congressional investigation.

Don’t blame New Mexico State.  Booted from the Sun Belt Conference after 2017, the program with 10 winning seasons since 1960 was gladly taking the $1.7 million check to go South and get killed.  After all, Alabama had ripped off 83 straight wins against non-ranked opponents.  But that doesn’t say they have to show up and get covered, does it?

The NM State Aggies and head coach Doug Martin looked on helplessly in the first half as the Crimson Tide built a predictable 38-0 lead going into the locker room.  Most sharps then knew two things; Alabama head coach Nick Saban was not going to offer any third quarter sympathy plus we were in for a very exciting “point spread” finish.  They were right on both counts.

From the opening second half kickoff Alabama was out to make New Mexico State earn every penny of that giant invitation payoff.  They cruised to 62-7 lead by the end of the 3rd quarter.  The only question remaining was with QB Tua Tagovailoa on the bench thinking about next year in Miami and the rest of team on the sidelines, would the Tide be motivated to cover that -54 to -55?

Remember, unlike 53-player NFL football the NCAA allows about 100 players on their rosters.  Special times like these call for deep substitution and ample opportunity for many to play, especially ahead of the challenging Southeast Conference schedule.  When getting involved in 40+ spread games, these situations and circumstances are to be expected.

Last Saturday’s mismatch didn’t disappoint.  What wasn’t expected was New Mexico State’s shocking field goal, down 55 points with 10:09 remaining.  Perhaps coach Martin was planning on eight more fourth quarter TD’s before Saban decided to risk putting Tagovailoa back into the game. 

The field goal decision was undoubtedly absurd, raising eyebrows in the wagering community.  Conversely, it put wide grins on many sportsbooks throughout the land who secured traditional unbalanced action on the popular Crimson Tide. 

Just imagine the opposite.  What if Coach Saban had attempted a field goal up 52 points to secure an Alabama cover?  Not against the rules, but likely headline material for days on ESPN and every new handicapping program currently invading TV and radio.  After the field goal, both teams seemingly agreed to kill the clock, finalizing a 62-10 romp for Alabama BUT a big cover for the visiting New Mexico State Aggies. 

Warning!!  Becoming a "Pats-sy" this Sunday

As that popular saying goes, "those who don’t learn from history, may be doomed to repeat it".  Wisdom to keep in mind this Sunday.   

Many eager handicappers raced to their PC’s the moment the Miami Dolphins-New England Patriots line was released.  It opened at a very surprising and uncomfortable -14.5 at several top sportsbooks. It's tough to accurately predict, but it’s possible to rise to as high as -19 at many locations including BetOnline, 5Dimes and WagerWeb.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see -20 by kickoff at Bovada, who traditionally include a base of favorite-oriented bettors. 

Keep in mind, this is only Week Two of a very long sixteen game NFL schedule.  A week often of injury potential to "skill-position", star players.  Projecting a possible Patriots 34-10 lead starting the fourth quarter, coach Bill Belichick could easily pull Tom Brady and his cast of starting wide receivers out of the game.  With a few thousand tanned people left in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium, another painful back-door cover could easily victimize overconfident Patriots bettors but delight very shrewd "sharps" who timed that middle play just right. 

Perhaps playing the money line is just healthier and easier on the heart.  Just wanted to point that out. 

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, including previews and picks from Glenn, click here.


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