BetOnline customers know that there were a certain amount of expectations for the Arkansas Razorbacks as they came under the leadership of John Calipari this season. But those expectations may not have included a spot in the Elite Eight when it came time to play in the NCAA Tournament.

Yet that is where Coach Cal will have his team if they can register a win on Thursday night over the Texas Tech Raiders, a top ten squad, in a Sweet Sixteen matchup that is scheduled to take place at 10:09 PM ET at the Chase center in San Francisco, which is home to the Golden State Warriors.

To give you an idea of where Arkansas was at one point, they had lost their first five conference games in the SEC. And there were a number of close losses, including an 83-80 decision to former Texas Tech coach Chris Beard and Ole Miss in the conference tournament.

But this was a team that also scored wins over the likes of Auburn and Kentucky (special for Calipari, obviously) in SEC play, so they had something to bring to the table. And they’ve jelled in the NCAA Tournament thus far, with two victories over storied programs and storied coaches - 79-72 over Bill Self’s Kansas Jayhawks and 75-66 over Rick Pitino and his St. John’s Red Storm.

They’ve dealt with injuries along the way too, which demonstrates that this club has some depth. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has had its depth challenged as well, as for the last four games they’ve been missing Chance McMillian, their best outside shooter, but have beaten North Carolina-Wilmington (82-72) and Drake (77-64) to get here. 

In the Sweet Sixteen NCAA Basketball odds that have been posted on this game by the people at BetOnline, the Red Raiders are the favorites:

Texas Tech Red Raiders -5.5
Arkansas Razorbacks +5.5

Over 148 Points -112
Under 148 Points -108

Tech is coached by Grant McCasland, who is in his second year in Lubbock after six years at North Texas. With the Mean Green, he won 31 games and the NIT championship in 2023. Texas Tech lost to Arizona in the Big 12 tournament (first year in the conference), but beat the Wildcats by 16 points during the regular season, with wins over BYU, Houston, Baylor and Kansas as well. 

The Red Raiders play a lot of “D” and shoot a lot of threes. In fact, they hoisted 46 of them against NC-Wilmington, with Kerwin Walton scoring 27 points. Against Drake, they had more success in closer, as they put together a 50-20 advantage in points in the paint. Damion Williams, the Nevada transfer, had 28 points, while JT Toppin, the New Mexico transfer who averaged 18 points and nine rebounds and was named Big 12 Player of the Year, registered 25 points and a dozen boards.

The questions here center around McMillian, A 6’3” guard who averaged 14.1 points for the Red Raiders and has been out the last four games with an “upper body” injury. McMillian, who has a top ten Offensive Rating nationally, according to the analytics site KenPom, is a 43% shooter from downtown, so not being in the lineup takes some of that threat away. He is, at best, a game-time decision.

Arkansas has been replenishing itself. Adou Thiero, a Kentucky transfer who is the leading scorer on the team, has missed eight games with a hyperextended knee. Calipari has indicated that the 6’8” forward may be available for part-time action. And freshman guard Boogie Fland has recently returned from a hand injury. He’s averaged 15.1 points and 5.7 assists.

An area of concern for Arkansas is that they don’t do a great job on the boards. St. John’s, for example, had 28 offensive rebounds against them. You can’t keep doing that and survive. On the other hand, the Hogs can initiate stops; they are in the top 20 in defensive efficiency. They did such a great job against RJ Luis Jr., the St. John’s star, that Pitino took him out of the game down the stretch after he made just three of 17 shots. 

And these guys have a lot of balance. Any number of players can step up and play the hero. 

Last weekend, freshman Billy Richmond had season highs of 16 points and nine rebounds to help beat St. John’s. Karter Knox, another frosh, had 15 points and blocked four shots. Jonas Aidoo, the 6’11” Tennessee transfer, had 22 points, three blocks and three steals against Kansas. Transfers DJ Wagner (Kentucky) and Johnell Davis (who made the Final Four at Florida Atlantic) have been big contributors.

Zvonimir Ivisic has the potential to contribute something big, but a thumb injury and general inconsistency have plagues him. Calipari will give him some minutes and see what he can get out of the 7’2” center from Croatia.

If he can do some damage, especially with his shooting from the outside (38% on 124 three-point attempts), that makes the task easier. But the Hogs can get this done without a lot of impact out of him. This team is doing what a lot of Calipari teams have done in the past - getting better and more cohesive as the season progresses - so they’re in a very good spot to keep this close or advance. TAKE. 

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