Super Bowl LV Free Pick



Betting tips and a free pick for Super Bowl 55.

The 2020 NFL season all comes down to this. It's a matchup of the veteran, future of Hall of Fame quarterback against the young buck who will carry on his tradition. Tom Brady leads his Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.

It marks the first time that a host team can win a Lombardi Trophy on its own field. Brady, who has six Super Bowl victories all as a member of the New England Patriots, will try for his seventh.

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The Chiefs Patrick Mahomes, who was the Super Bowl MVP last year, will try to cement his name in the record books with consecutive wins.

Super Bowl LV

Kansas City Chiefs (16-2, 7-10-1 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-5, 11-8 ATS)
When: 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 7, 2021
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Current Line: KC -3  
Total: 56
Super Bowl free pickTV Coverage: CBS 

Recent Successes

The Chiefs played well two weeks ago in the AFC title game. Mahomes threw for 325 yards and three touchdowns as there was never really any doubt that Kansas City would beat Buffalo. 

It was also the first game in which the Chiefs covered the point spread in ten games. Kansas City went 6-2 ATS to start the season then went 0-8-1 before covering as a three-point favorite over Buffalo in the AFC championship.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has had success both straight up and against the spread. The offense, led by Brady, has scored at least 30 points in six straight games. That includes two 40-point-plus outbursts to end the regular season.

In the NFC championship game, Brady threw three touchdown passes as the Bucs defeated No. 1 seed Green Bay 31-26. The Packers were favored by three points at home. It was the Buc’s third straight road win and their second straight cover as a road underdog.

ATS Trends

Now, Kansas City has won 25 of its last 27 games. If you go back a little further pre-Mahomes, you’ll find that in the Chiefs previous 56 victories, all but one of them has come by at least three points. The problem, of course, for KC is that more recently the Chiefs are just 1-8-1 ATS.

The Bucs have had more recent success covering the spread. Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The Bucs are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against Kansas City.

Editor's Choice > Super Bowl 55 Odds: Market Report, Props And Chiefs vs Bucs Picks

Maybe even more important is the fact that the Bucs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last ten games as a home underdog. Remember, Super Bowl 55 is a home game for the Bucs at Raymond James Stadium. 

One of the huge keys in Sunday’s game will be the Bucs’ pass rush versus a patchwork Chiefs offensive line. Two-time Pro Bowl left tackle Eric Fisher tore an Achilles tendon in the AFC championship game and is out. Head coach Andy Reid shuffled the offensive line around and it will go up against a Bucs pass rush that sacked Aaron Rodgers five times in the NFC title game.

That's the difference.

Super Bowl LV FREE PICK:  TAMPA BAY +3

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