Super Bowl 54 Prediction -- Chiefs vs. Niners: The Final Analysis

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Feb 2nd, 2020 1:21:13 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


What do the San Francisco 49ers in Kansas City Chiefs have to accomplish to win Super Bowl LIV? We explore that in our final analysis.


The Kansas City Chiefs have been waiting 50 years to one another Super Bowl championship. Will the week be over on Sunday? They look to have all the firepower to get it done, but the San Francisco 49ers are a team that comes up strong and a lot of categories.

Super Bowl LIV presents one of the more intriguing handicapping match ups in this game's history, and that is not something that we say every year. The game kicks off at 6:30 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Fox televises it, and that any sports customers can place wagers in real-time while they watch it, using the software provided through Sports Betting Ultra.

They also supply hundreds and hundreds of props, in what amounts to a bit of Super Bowl mayhem. And here is their wine on the game, which as the Chiefs slightly favored:

Kansas City Chiefs -1.5
San Francisco 49ers +1.5

Over 54 points -110
Under 54 points -110

We're not going to really dwell too much on what we already know these teams can do. Patrick Mahomes exhibited a lot of wizardry in the playoffs, bringing his team back twice from deficits. The first time it was against Houston, which led the Chiefs 24-0, and Kansas City became the first team ever to come back from a first-half deficit like that to lead at halftime. Against Tennessee in the AFC title game, Mahomes maneuvered his way to a 27-yard touchdown run right before the half, taking the heart away from the Titans, who only gave the ball to Derrick Henry only three times in the second half.

The Niners dominated Minnesota and Green Bay so thoroughly that quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo only had to throw the ball 27 times in those games. In the second halves of those contests, San Francisco ran the ball 49 times and passed it only eight times. We are not expecting those kinds of numbers again.

I think they keys to this Super Bowl are those things that surprised me when doing my research. We know the perception is that Kansas City is this fearsome team that can score from anywhere on the field on any play, but I did not expect to find that the 49ers were team that ranked #1 in the league in "passing explosiveness," with a higher percentage of pass plays that went for 20 or more yards than anyone else. And when you look at Jimmy G's statistics, and see that his passes have gone for an average of only 6.5 yards beyond scrimmage (second lowest in the league), you might get the impression that it's all about the yards after the catch for this receiving corps. Well, that's prominent, for sure, but Garoppolo has also completed 58.5% of the passes he threw that went 15 yards or further, so he can get it down the field. Anyone who underestimates him does so at their own peril.

Garoppolo has also averaged 11.5 yards per play action pass, so if the Niners do what I expect them to do and get a ground game going against a team that has allowed teams to run more plays per drive than anybody, he'll be able to get play action going, which is exactly what Kyle Shanahan craves. Remember that Kansas City is 29th in run defense DVOA (efficiency), and even during this period when they have shown much improvement stopping the run, they have ranked only 17th, which is still "lower case." San Francisco has feasted against the bottom third of NFL run defenses, averaging 5.8 ypc. And the Chiefs have gotten worse as the game progresses, allowing 5.5 ypc in the second half.

Let's put it this way - Shanahan is going to make Kansas City prove they can stop the run, and if they overcompensate for it, they can get burned down the field, or by tight end George Kittle, who is a man among boys.

As far as the frequency of its blitzes, San Francisco is 29th in the league. But they are second in pressure rate and third in sack rate. They have all first-round draft choices up front. Mahomes does get sacked much, but he will be challenged. And the Niners may be afforded the luxury of being able to play seven men back in coverage. That's when this thing gets interesting. Mahomes destroys blitzes, as he has 25 TD's with one INT since the beginning of last year when extra people are rushing. But when there is NO blitz, he has a harder time. His five lowest QB ratings this year came in game in which he was blitzed 13% of the time or less. This works to San Francisco's advantage.

And Robert Saleh's defense allowed fewer of these "explosive" pass plays than anybody. The Niners cover the intermediate receivers like tight ends (allowing four catches for 38 yards on average), and handle the downfield throws - surrendering just 34% completions when it goes 15+ yards in the air (beyond the line of scrimmage). Only ten plays have gone 40 or more yards against this secondary.

Shanahan is a bright young football mind. And his staff knows what it's doing. When you lose three members of your offensive line at one time or another, two of them Pro Bowlers, and still keep hammering, that takes a lot of adjustment and coordination on the part of the staff. And don't forget that they did not have Dee Ford or Kwon Alexander healthy for the whole season.

We could go on and on, but I just like the overall quality of this San Francisco team. They don't have such a glaring weak spot that you can attack it again and again. And in terms of the fundamental matchup, we can see a path to victory for them if they can just operate with some efficiency doing what they do best. Sure, Andy Reid is 23-4 coming out of a bye week. But Garoppolo is 23-5 as an NFL starter, and five of those wins came when he took over a 1-10 team. Like we said, don't underestimate him.

The wrong team is favored. We're on board with the RIGHT team.

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