Prop betting advice for Game 4 of the Stanley Cup

You know, just because a guy gets a lot of shots on goal, that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to score. And just because he gets a lot of time on the ice, it doesn't mean he's going to get a lot of shots off.

There are a lot of factors that go into analyzing props. And we will do the best we can to do so with BetOnline Stanley Cup props for Game 4 of the series.

As you know, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 3-0 lead in games over the Montreal Canadiens, so this is their opportunity to close things out.

So let's take a look and see what we come up with.

Erik Cernak - Shots on Goal

Over 1.5 Shots -120
Under 1.5 Shots -108

Cernak has had six shots in this series. But that isn't necessarily what we are focusing on. The Tampa Bay defenseman is consistent in the sense that he generally hits what he is aiming at. During the regular season, he hit the mark with 73.7% of his shots (what we mean by that is that his shot was on goal). And during these playoffs, that percentage has actually risen to 74.3%. Paired with Ryan McDonagh, he had almost 20 minutes of playing time on the backline in Game 3. OVER (-120)

Anthony Cirelli - Shots on Goal

Over 1.5 Shots -149
Under 1.5 Shots +114

Two-thirds of Cirelli's shots (36 of 54) in these playoffs have been on goal. We should tell you that he has had only two shots in the three games of this series. But he was on a line (with Ross Colton and Steven Stamkos) which had a 71% Expected Goals Percentage in Game 3. he has also spent some time on the power play.

But throughout his career, he's averaged only 1.5 shots on goal per game. Of course, keep in mind that you can't register 1.7 shots in an NHL game. Either he can get two or he can't. And he has consistently NOT gotten that. Thus, we see more value with the UNDER (+114) here.

Brendan Gallagher - Points

Under 0.5 Points -175
Over 0.5 Points +134

Gallagher, who did not play during the regular season, has seen a tremendous difference between expectation and reality. Through 20 playoff games, his Expected Goals figure is 5.2, but he's had only two goals and six points. He also had just 23 points in 35 games during the regular season. So offense has not been his forte lately, even though he has tallied over 30 goals twice in the last four seasons.

His expected points per 60 minutes is 0.91, and he has averaged 13:24 per game in this Finals series, yet he's only got one point. So the value has to be on the UNDER (-175).

Brayden Point - Points

Over 0.5 Points -167
Under 0.5 Points +127

Point, by his standard, has not produced offensively in the series. Let's face it - the guy came into the Finals having scored in nine of his last ten games, and 14 goals in the playoffs.

He's had only four shots on goal thus far. He's scored 36 playoff goals in 65 playoff games, and over the last two seasons, 28 in 44 - eleven on the power play. And for his career, he has averaged more than a point per playoff game.

Even as he's been quiet here, he's had three assists. He'll get power play time as usual, and remember that Montreal has allowed two PP goals, which is unusual after having gone 13 games without allowing one. OVER (-167)

To Win Conn Smythe Trophy

Andrei Vasilevskiy -220
Nikita Kucherov    +120
Brayden Point       +900
Carey Price          +6000

Point could punctuate his case for the Conn Smythe with a huge Game 4 output. Carey Price has brought the Canadiens this far, but it would take a miracle at this point.

What Kucherov has done has been remarkable. The 2019 MVP didn't even play during the regular season, but it didn't take long for him to get right into the thick of things. He has 32 points in 21 playoff games, which leads everybody. And he's another guy who could jump to the head of the pack with a huge Game 4.

But you can't argue all much with Vasilevskiy, who has been so outstanding, with a .938 save percentage and 1.94 goals-against, with four shutouts. He's even stepped things up in the Finals, with .948 and 1.60, respectively. His presence alone has made Tampa Bay a nearly impossible team to beat, even as they struggled offensively in previous series. He should win.

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