Stanley Cup Finals Betting -- With Storm Passing, Lightning Strikes in Game 5

  • In Charles Jay
  • Wed, Jul 7th, 2021 12:36:34 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Tampa Bay Lightning have their chance to capture the Stanley Cup for the second year in a row as they play host to the Montreal Canadiens at the Amalie Arena on Wednesday night.

Preview for Game 5 of the NHL Stanley Cup Finals

So the Tampa Bay Lightning will have a chance to clinch its second straight Stanley Cup in Game 5 of the Finals, although how many fans they'll have in attendance is another question.

With Elsa, the tropical storm which was upgraded to a hurricane and then back to a tropical storm again, doing some damage to the area, there may be flooding to deal with, but the game should go forward.

And the Montreal Canadiens may have gotten a boost of confidence as they fought tooth-and-nail with the Lightning on Monday night and came away with a 3-2 overtime victory.

Lightning Canadiens getting tipsHere are the Stanley Cup Finals betting odds posted on the game as they appear at BetOnline:

Tampa Bay Lightning -233
Montreal Canadiens +208

Lightning -1.5 Goals +113
Canadiens +1.5 Goals -133

Over 5 Goals -125
Under 5 Goals +113

Montreal won Game 4 despite only 21 shots on goal. It did appear that almost the entire game was spent in their end of the ice. In fact, the Lightning had a huge advantage if you use almost anything as a barometer. In the "Corsi For" metric, for instance, Tampa Bay was at 59.8%, which is way above average. And they had an Offensive Zone Start Percentage of 61.9%. That's big too.

Montreal obviously got some very special performances out of certain individuals. Josh Anderson scored twice, and that included one of the great second efforts you'll ever see, hammering home a rebound after coming from behind the goal line. That ended it in overtime.

And Carey Price looked like he had for most of the playoffs, stopping 32 of 34 shots. The penalty-killing unit was once again outstanding as well, turning away ten minutes of Tampa Bay power plays, including an extended man advantage of four minutes that continued into overtime.

But there were blunders on the part of the Habs' defensive corps as well. Jeff Petry threw a pass that was intercepted and converted into a Barclay Goodrow goal in the second period. Shea Weber was the guy who was sent off for that four-minute interval, which could have spoiled the Canadiens' overtime hopes. And there were numerous occasions when Lightning players were all alone with an opportunity to poke one in, which never should have happened.

Alexander Romanov had a big moment when he scored his first NHL goal to put the Habs ahead 2-1 in the third period. But five minutes later he allowed Pat Maroon to get behind him and beat Price to essentially force the OT.

That fourth Tampa Bay line, which includes Maroon, dominated play against their counterparts, chalking up a 64.7% Corsi and 66.7% Fenwick (a clue - both of those are winning figures, in a big way).

In other words, we're telling you that about 85 times out of 100, the Bolts would have won this game, given statistical set of circumstances. Well, actually WE are not telling you that; the folks at Money Puck, a great analytics site we like, had the Lightning at 84.8% on its "Deserve to Win O'Meter."

Sure, it was expected that Montreal would come out for Game 4, at home, with some additional resolve. But after being outscored 14-5 in the first three games of the series, they allowed the Bolts to dominate, even in victory.

In the three-way regulation prop, the Lightning is laying only a -160 price. Laying a goal and a half, they actually get odds of +113. Remember that possible empty-net goals are always a consideration, so we're going to move in that direction.

BetOnline will continue to have the best odds and props on Stanley Cup betting - if the Finals keep going! And if they don't, you can get the same thing for the NBA Finals, and that also includes the "Live Betting" option, which you'll find at the top of the sportsbook interface. And remember that Odds Boosters gives you greatly enhanced payouts on pre-selected parlays every day of the week!


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