NFL betting advice and common sense tips to win more
When the NFL season starts, it's like the beginning of a new year for players, fans and bettors. For gamblers, this is a perfect opportunity to 'wipe the slate clean' and carry out a health-check on sports betting, much like the soul-searching on New Year's Day that results in life-enhancing resolutions. With this in mind, we have assembled some Betting Resolutions to consider for betting on the NFL this season.
While you may already apply some of these rules for improved betting; others may be new to you. By carefully applying this set of sports betting guidelines, should help you become more successful at betting football.
Top Gambler's Resolutions
1. Get the best price
If you make only one NFL resolution this year, promise yourself to ALWAYS obtain the best available price or odds. Finding a sportsbook that offers reduced juice on NFL sides can save players up to 50% of the juice other books charge. Holding an account at a book that offers lower vig will save you a fortune during the season, regardless of whether you're a professional handicapper or a novice sports bettor.
To prove a point, a player has to win close to 53% of their bets just to break even at traditional -110 pricing offered by mainstream sportsbooks. At a low juice sports book, you only need to win 51% of your plays to break even.
2. Use good risk management
Risk management is one of the most misunderstood and undervalued concepts in sports betting. If you bet for fun, the average cost for a bet is based on the juice or vig. For example, betting $100 on an NFL game using standard -110 pricing at a traditional sportsbook has an average cost of $5 per game. If you do no handicapping and just play for kicks, betting 100 games at $100 each, you should expect to lose $500 in a season.
Winning players must understand this too. It's possible to be a successful handicapper, but still lose long-term by betting more money than your advantage dictates. A sensible tactic for winning players is to never risk more than 3% of bankroll on any given play and to always shop for the best price.
3. Understand and limit your bankroll
A gambling bankroll is defined as the amount of money a bettor is prepared to lose before they'll stop wagering. Decide what your bankroll is before the season begins and stick to it. If you hit a losing streak (everybody does at some point), reduce the bet size relative to your lower bankroll. If you haven't thought about your bankroll before, do it now, before the season starts. By failing to address this fundamental aspect of gambling you could easily lose more than you ever intended.
4. Keep good records
Keeping an accurate track record of your plays can reveal areas of weakness you may not have been previously aware of. You might find that you win in most markets, but consistently lose money in one particular area. For example, you may crush the book on NFL sides, but get killed on totals. A bettor may also flourish at a particular point of the season and be unsuccessful at another. It is best to keep records of your plays to highlights these trends, which can then be corrected, maximized or avoided.
5. Manage Expectations
Many players bet with no idea of what to expect long term. Most of us are too optimistic in assessing overall capabilities, especially novice players, who plan their retirement on the basis of an early winning streak. In major sports very few players can expect to win more than 55%. If you're just playing for fun or excitement, hitting exactly 50% and losing a few bucks is a realistic expectation.
6. Select your sportsbook wisely
Many sportsbooks will offer promotions to encourage new players to sign up. Many of the top online sportsbooks offer new players a 50% sign up bonus worth up to $500 just for trying out their service.
The general rule of thumb is that if a promotion looks too good to be true, it probably is. There have been some horrific sportsbook failures and nearly all were a result of unsustainable promotions. If a sportsbook gives a large bonus, lets you buy on/off the "3" for 10 cents, gives reduced juice or offers a similar promotion that makes it look "easy" to beat, you're risking getting burned.
As a general rule of thumb, stick to solid sports books that have been established for at least five years. A good starting point for new players is to build a sportsbook portfolio that includes at least one reduced-juice book like BetAnySports, a sharper book like Heritage or BookMaker and a 'public' book like BetOnline or BetUS. In the long run having these three different types of book can help you with getting the best price, which of course is always resolution #1.
7. Define your goals
Whether you're a professional or recreational bettor, give yourself clear objectives. If you're a pro, don't just focus on hitting a financial target, think about how you'll reach it. This might include doing statistical analysis on smaller markets, making larger plays where there's an edge, or just protecting your bank until the season ends. For a novice bettor, it may be keeping your bankroll alive until the Super Bowl. In each case, be sure to identify and remain focused on the goal.
8. Play for fun and/or for profit
Let's face it, people bet for different reasons. But, it should always include having at least some fun. Even a professional gambler has a bit of fun betting on NFL and college football, despite treating it like a job. Sure, everyone wants to make money sports betting, but if you find yourself distraught after a big loss or chasing losses by using the SNF or Monday Night Football game as a 'get out' game, it's time to look in the mirror. Bottom line, when the fun stops, so should the betting.