Three time this season the NFL overtime rule has caused controversy. What are some better solutions?

When the NFL season starts, fans, sportsbooks and bettors know there will be complaints as soon as the first overtime game is played. So far in 2024, there have been seven overtime games and in three of the contests the team who won the coin toss marched down the field to score a TD without the other team having a chance to go on offense. All three of those games were in prime time. Something needs to be done.

OT history in the NFL

In the early days of the NFL, there was no overtime. If a game finished tied at the end of 60 minutes, then it was deemed a tie and each team received a point. Around the 1950s the league changed to add a sudden death overtime to try and determine a winner whereby whoever scored first won the game and in 2010 they modified the rule in the playoffs whereby if the team to possess the ball first only scored a field goal then the other team had a chance to possess the ball. In 2012 this rule was applied to all NFL games with a maximum 15-minute overtime period. There was always anger among fans about the rule, since first possession is determined by a coin flip and the team that won the flip had a distinct advantage, just needing to score a TD to end the game while the other team sat on the sideline and watched. While the stats showed that the advantage wasn’t as significant as most believed, it didn’t change the fact that in a hard-fought game where both defenses were tired, usually the team who won the coin toss also won the game. In 2017 the NFL shortened the overtime period to 10 minutes citing player safety, although most analysts agreed that the bigger concern for the league was games spilling over where a 1:00 game could carry on to well past 4:30, interrupting coverage for TV stations who paid to show the 4:00 game to a full audience.

The rule changes were just accepted until a 2022 post season game between Kansas City and Buffalo. By the end of the game the defenses were both dead tired and each team was scoring TDs at will. So, when the game went to overtime, it was clear that whoever won the coin toss would win the game and the TV announcers even acknowledged such. That was indeed what happened as K.C. won the toss and it took next to no time for the Chiefs to drive down the field and win the game 42-36. Because this was the AFC Championship Game there was immediate outcry that something different had to be done, so later that year the NFL clubs agreed to a change to the overtime rule again but only for the playoffs. Now in the playoffs, each team in postseason gets a chance to possess the ball regardless if the first team scores a touchdown. After that it would be sudden death. It has never happened, but most coaches admitted that with this new rule, if they possessed the ball second and scored a TD, they would go for a 2-point conversion to avoid further play. The rule for the regular season stayed the same.

NFL Oveftime in 2024

Fast forward to the first Sunday night football game of this year between the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions. The game was low scoring throughout, but as the defenses got worn down, points came in droves. Consequently, when the game went to overtime most viewers assumed that the winner of the coin toss would win the game. That is exactly what happened. Detroit won the toss and 5 minutes and 19 seconds later Jared Goff handed the ball to David Mongomery who easily went into the endzone to win the game. That result killed all bets on the Rams and it gave the league another black eye.

And in this week’s Monday night football game the exact same thing happened. The MNF game was 17-10 for the Chiefs over the Buccaneers at the end of the first half, but in the 4th quarter both teams were scoring at will. The game ended 24-24 at the end of regulation and once again, it  was effectively decided when KC won the coin toss. Patrick Mahomes and Kareem Hunt marched down the field in about 6 minutes to end it without Baker Mayfield and the Bucs even having a shot at the ball.

The Buccaneers should have gone for 2 points at the end of regulation, but that decision would have been moot if the league just applied the playoff OT rules to all games, which really are just as meaningful for teams hoping to make the playoffs. Aside from making the games more fair, ensuring both teams possess the ball will result in some strategy decisions for the coin flip winner on whether to take the ball or defer knowing if they score a TD first, the other team will get the ball and likely go for 2 points, if they score as well. And as for adding time to the games, it really wouldn’t add that much more time, nor should that be a consideration for professional players.



Overtime in other pro leagues

It is notable that other leagues have also changed their overtime rules due to backlash. In the NHL regular season, a tie was a tie for almost a century, until the league decided it wanted a game winner, so they added a 5-minute sudden death overtime. Because most games still ended in a tie, they added the shootout. And more recently, they changed the overtime to a 3-on-3 format, which has worked, as less than 1 in 6 games now that goes to overtime is decided in a shootout. Major League Baseball always had unlimited overtime but to try and stop the games from going on for hours past the set time they changed the rule recently whereby starting in the 10th inning the last player to record an out would start on 2nd base. This has indeed more or less stopped the 14 or more inning games that many fans became accustomed to. Only the NBA, with its unlimited 5-minute overtimes, and Major League Soccer, which follows FIFA rules and has a 30-minute overtime followed by a shootout, if necessary, have not changed the OT rules.
After the Detroit Sunday night game in Week 1, I reached out to a couple of friends who are big bettors and who have always complained about the NFL Overtime rules, as well as two colleagues I follow who write about football. Together we brainstormed and came up with six better alternatives than the rule that exists now. Below are those six suggestions, verified after the latest OT game, with the pros and cons of each.

Let the game pick up where it left off.

This seemed to be appreciated by almost everyone in the discussion. Instead of overtime becoming a new game and possibly decided by a coinflip, the thinking here is that the game should end after 60 minutes, but pick up with the same team in possession at the end of the game with the same field possession they had at the end of regulation. Thus, instead of a new game, it’s just a maximum 10-minute extension of the same game. This would stop teams from trying to get to overtime if they are on defense and it could change the thinking of teams on offense. For example, in the forementioned Detroit vs. L.A. Sunday night game, instead of the Hail Mary attempt by Stafford because L.A. was at their own 30 and there was only 16 seconds left, L.A. could continue to play as normal realizing that when they go into overtime they would have the ball at say the 33 yard line with 2nd and 7 to go. The only negative feedback from the group is that they feel many coaches would say overtime is a new game and if they are on defense they shouldn’t be punished for trying to run out the clock. The positives, however, are that each team knows exactly what the situation is and can play their game realizing that the game will pick up where the "first game" left off when the whistle blows to start overtime.

Change the regular season OT to be the same as playoff OT.

The leagues are always saying they hate this rule because if the first team scores a touchdown, then they’ll bleed the clock and that will lead to desperate calls by the second team to get possession, which in turn increases the chances of injuries. The truth is that these are all multi million-dollar professionals and risk of injury is always there, so it shouldn’t be a consideration. Moreover, the league can change it to a 15 minute overtime period so that the desperation will be taken out of it and more likely than not, if the second team scores a touchdown as well, they will probably go for a 2 point conversion to end the game win or lose. The biggest downfall to this rule is the one discussed earlier - that it will increase the time of games to interfere with later games. For that reason alone most of those I spoke to feel the NFL will never consider it for regular season games.

Allow 12 men for the first series on defense.

This was mentioned by one of the writers I spoke to and only one friend hated the idea. With the extra defender on the intitial overtime series, the offense would be at a huge disadvantage, which might convince some teams to actually defer, realizing they would have less chance of getting down the field on the first drive, and if they then receive the ball with the regular 11 man defense after the first possession, they would only need a field goal to win the game. One of the writers said that while he loves the idea, he doubts the league would ever agree to it because it would be such a huge fundamental change to how the game is played. He also said that the extra defender, particularly if it’s a linebacker, could increase the chance of injuries.

25-yard mini-games like in the NCAA

A staple of NCAA and CFL football games, these are absolutely loved by the fans. It’s a real shootout and they are simply fun to watch. The downfall of course, is that they can go on forever. In fact, the NCAA changed the rule a couple of years back limiting it to two mini-games each, at which time it becomes a 2-point competition. The NFL ruled out the mini-games almost immediately because they take so long, although there was some suggestion that adopting the CFL rule of three-down football for the mini-games could lead to a winner early more often. Sportsbooks hate these mini-games because they drastically change the outcome for both for the spread and the total. One top offshore sportsbook operator once told me he was tired of handing out goodwill refunds because someone who bet say under 63 points on an NCAA game that ends 20-20 all of a sudden is a loser when the teams exchange touchdowns on many drives. NFL coaches also expressed in the past that while it’s fine for college football, it defeats the integrity of the NFL to play mini-games which could decide a possible birth to the playoffs. Mind you that’s the same reason it’s unfair to rely on a coin flip to decide the game.

The team receiving the ball can’t punt.

I actually read this suggestion on social media and laughed, but both friends I spoke to seemed to believe it had merit. Obviously, a team like Kansas City would still take the ball if they won the coin flip, but other teams may consider deferring if they are not an offensive juggernaut, realizing that if they go four and out, then the other team is automatically in scoring position. The biggest downfall to this is the same as the current rule – the team who wins the coin toss has a major advantage over the other team since they can force the other team to take the ball and with a good defensive stand end the game quickly. The upside to this is that it really makes teams think of what to do, should they win the coin toss. A possible solution to make it more fair for both teams would be that the offensive team starts at say the 40-yard line so that even if they go 4 and out the other team isn’t automatically in field goal range.

Go back to the beginning . . . and put an end overtime.

One of my friends said that he doesn’t understand why a tie game is seen as such a negative. Whether it’s hockey or football, why can’t a game simply end tied, with each team getting a point? My friend even said that if a game goes 10 minutes and there’s no score it’s graded a tie. So why let it come down to a coin flip and instead simply end the game with both teams happy and pissed off at the same time for the single point? No doubt coaches and the league would love this because it offers the least chance for injury or for games going on forever, but unfortunately many fans adhere to the line by Will Farrell in Talladega Nights "if you’re not first then you’re last," and want to see a game winner whenever possible.

So, as usual the NFL season has controversy with overtime games. The solution isn’t easy, but a consensus from colleagues, writers and posters on social media seems to be that it’s just not fair that a game comes down to a coin flip. Presented are six possible solutions to change the current regular season overtime rules and I’m sure there are other viable suggestions too. Feel free to comment with your suggestions on my X feed.

One thing is certain, however, for the league it’s a lose-lose situation. No matter what the league institutes there will be someone angry, and the league does have to answer to owners, sponsors and TV stations they have contracts with. I’m not sure what is the best solution but that’s why the NFL Commissioner and Competition Committee are paid the big bucks.

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