CINCINNATI BENGALS

Pro Football Futures Odds:

To Win Super Bowl +2200
To Win AFC Championship +1000
To Win AFC North +225
Regular Season Wins -- Over 9.5 Wins -125, Under 9.5 Wins -105
To Make Playoffs -- Yes -145, No +115

The Cincinnati Bengals got one of the best statistical season in recent history out of their quarterback, in 2024, yet their 9-8 record still failed to get them to the playoffs.

With no earth-shattering additions this season, what makes us think there is going to be a substantially better result?

Well, nothing, necessarily.

Let's start with the trigger man - Burrow

Joe Burrow, now entering his sixth season, registered his best numbers to date in 2024. He put the ball up 652 times with 460 completions, throwing for 4918 yards. All those figures were the highest of his career. He also had a stellar ratio of 43 touchdowns to only nine interceptions and finished fourth in the voting for MVP.

Burrow averaged 7.1 Intended Air Yards per attempt, so he didn't get it down the field on a regular basis. His on-target percentage of 80.3% was more than credible.

Play action was not a big part of the Bengals' passing game, as Burrow only had 471 yards through that route. And he was sacked 48 times. This was a reflection on offensive line play, and to an extent, the running game. So if you were looking for a reason why the team fell short of the postseason even with (perhaps) the league's best quarterback, that could be it.

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Chase and Higgins have to be healthy and ready to handle a lot

It is critical that Burrow has his two best wideouts at his disposal, as this can't be considered an especially deep receiver room.

Ja'Marr Chase was the most productive wide receiver in pro football last season. Burrow's former LSU teammate hauled in 127 passes for 1708 yards and 17 touchdowns. In all three of those categories, he led the NFL. Chase's reception total has gone up every season.

His sidekick, Tee Higgins, is fully capable of dealing with the single-coverage opportunities that have been afforded him as a result of teaming with Chase. Even though he missed five games last season, he still had 73 receptions for 911 yards and ten touchdowns. Yes, this is a dynamic duo.

There was very little balance in this attack in 2024. The Bengals threw the ball 64.8% of the time, which was the second highest rate in the NFL. The ground game averaged less than 94 yards a contest. Chase Brown, with 990 yards and 4.3 per carry, was certainly credible, but he did nothing eye-popping, No material changes are seen on the horizon, unless you see seventh-round pick Tahj Brooks as a significant upgrade.

This offensive line has to block better, period

There is no better description for the Bengals' offensive line last season than to say it was found "wanting." Pro Football Focus, a respected analytics site that is used by many in the league, graded out that unit as 29th in the NFL in both run blocking and pass blocking.

Scott Peters takes over as the offensive line coach, and truth be told, there has been an effort to address the problem. But has it been a major effort?

Free agent guard Lucas Patrick came over from New Orleans, and played last season without allowing a sack. Dylan Fairchild, another guard, was drafted in the third round out of Georgia, and will likely start.

Last year's first-rounder, Amarius Mims, was a teammate of Fairchild's at Georgia, and he fell into a starting spot last year because of an injury to Trent Brown. He allowed four sacks from his right tackle position. Orlando Brown, a former Pro Bowler, might be a bit vulnerable at left tackle. His 2024 campaign was interrupted by injuries, including a broken leg.

The pass rush is crucial - but there are factors affecting it

As we write this, the status of All-Pro defensive end Trey Hendrickson is not certain. He is in camp, and with the team. But he refuses to participate in any practices or drills until a contract extension is resolved.

The Bengals had given him permission to seek out a trade, but he was unsuccessful in doing that. And although there have been some negotiations on a contract, there's an impasse, because Cincinnati will not guarantee any money to him beyond the first year of the deal.

How important is Hendrickson? Well, last season the Bengals totaled 36 sacks. Hendrickson was credited with 17.5 of them. In fact, he's had 17.5 sacks in each of the last two seasons, and last year's figure led the league.

So yes, he accounts for quite a bit.

The Bengals may have been in worse shape if they had not been able to sign their first-round draft pick. Shemar Stewart was taken with the 17th overall selection out of Texas A&M. But he would not sign his rookie contract until language regarding guaranteed money was worked out to his satisfaction. So he was, like Hendrickson, not participating in any practices.

Ultimately he has been signed - the last of the first-round draft choices to do so - and he suited up for the first preseason game.

What will he contribute this season? Well, that's an interesting question, since Stewart's sack totals in college were nothing to even look twice at - 1.5 in each of the seasons he lined up for the Aggies. So even as an insurance policy in case they lost Hendrickson, his value is something you'd have to wonder about.

Cincinnati Bengals 2025 NFL prediction

One certainly has to concede that the Bengals are always going to be a threat with the kind of firepower they have in the passing game. But there are weaknesses elsewhere that need to be acknowledged.

This is not an offensive line that is ready to compete for a conference title. And when there is one man who constitutes almost half your pass rush, and that man wants out, well, that's a concern.

This looks like it will be, once again, an unbalanced offense, and although we do recognize that Burrow will have some gaudy stats, can he possibly duplicate what he did last year? We doubt it. But even if he does, it produced a 9-8 season. Anything less, and we may see Cincinnati slipping under .500.

So, since we are not necessarily believers, we'll lay -105 on UNDER 9.5.

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