PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Pro Football Futures Odds:

To Win Super Bowl +4000
To Win AFC Championship +2000
To Win AFC North +500
Regular Season Wins -- Under 8.5 Wins -130, Over 8.5 Wins +100

What led us to this point

Last season the Pittsburgh Steelers got off to an 8-2 start, and not all of those wins were against cupcakes either; the Steelers scored victories over the Washington Commanders and Baltimore Ravens.

Justin Fields started the first six games, and threw only one interception. But he was only keeping the seat warm until Russell Wilson took over. The lowlight was a five-game losing streak to close out the year (including a playoff defeat to Baltimore), during which time Pittsburgh scored only 71 points.

Wilson and Fields both took off for the Meadowlands after the season - Wilson will be the starter for the Giants, while Fields has been anointed as the #1 QB with the Jets.

Filling the void at quarterback - the "Before A.R. Plan"

So the quarterback room needed some new occupants. Ultimately the Steelers would up with three signal-callers who have started at least one playoff game, in addition to another who won a national championship in college.

Rumors swirled around Aaron Rodgers, who had been let go by the Jets in what may best be described as an embarrassing experience. He then started speaking with the Steelers, basically the only interested club that was of playoff caliber, and it was an open secret that he wanted to come back and play another season. But he may have been okay with just walking away from the game as well. So he was more or less on his own timetable.

Of course, that conflicts with an NFL team's timetable because there is free agency and the draft process to worry about. So the Steelers, who obviously wanted to being Rodgers into the fold, didn't know whether they should go shopping for a new quarterback or not.

They went ahead with some backup plans. And we mean that literally. Mason Rudolph, their long-time backup who actually led Pittsburgh into the playoffs two seasons ago, then took off for Tennessee, was brought back. They also signed Skyler Thompson, who was pressed into action as a Miami Dolphin rookie in 2022 when Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater were unavailable with injuries, and almost led his team to a wild card playoff win over the Buffalo Bills.

Will Howard, who had been a backup to Thompson at Kansas State, later transferred to Ohio State and won a national championship with the Buckeyes. The Steelers took him on the sixth round of the draft.

Filling the void at QB - the "A.R. Plan"

Rodgers came in and did some informal workouts with newly-acquired wide receiver DK Metcalf, and had extensive conversations with head coach Mike Tomlin, but he was still not on the roster.

It was not until June 7 that Rodgers signed a one-year contract with the Steelers, worth $13.65 million. If things work out, he's a bargain.

To say that his Pittsburgh signing drew considerably less fanfare than his arrival with the New York Jets would be a vast understatement.

With the Jets, he was calling a lot of shots, as he was accommodated with, among other things, some of his former wideouts from Green Bay and an offensive coordinator (Nathaniel Hackett) that he had chemistry with, which might mean, in effect, that he was the man in control.

After missing a year with his Achilles injury, Rodgers came back and the luster wore off. It was a year of controversy, as the Jets fired the coach and the general manager, stripped Hackett of play-calling duties, and suffered from insinuations that owner Woody Johnson's teenage son had substantive input in personnel decisions.

Some of Rodgers' numbers weren't so bad - he did throw for 3897 yards and tossed 29 touchdown passes - but his QB rating was his lowest as a starter and he had eleven INT's, which is unusual for someone who had the lowest interception ratio in NFL history.

Yes, Rodgers has lost something off his fastball. At the same time, you have to also consider that he was operating in an atmosphere that had been dysfunctional even before he got there, and that the Jets produced next to nothing on the ground, ranking 31st in the league in rushing. The Jets aired it out 64% of the time, the fourth-highest percentage in the NFL.

That is definitely not the intention of Tomlin and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who are proponents of the ground game. In 2024 the Steelers were fourth in the NFL in rushing attempts and eleventh in yardage. They ran the ball on 48.3% of their plays from scrimmage.

Najee Harris, who was a workhorse, departed in free agency. Jaylen Warren, who's been productive in a part-time role over the last three seasons, will probably see that role increased. Tomlin has told him to get ready for such a thing.

Kenneth Gainwell comes over from the Eagles to join the running back room as well. And the third-round draft pick should help lighten everybody else's burden as a rookie. Kaleb Johnson does not shy away from contact, and he had 1537 yards and 21 touchdowns last year at Iowa, which was otherwise punchless. He blocks, and also protects the ball, as he had no fumbles in his last 475 touches.

Smith's philosophy to begin with is run-first, so Rodgers won't have to worry too much about getting support in the run game, one way or another.

Then again, philosophies may clash.

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Could we see some drama?

In a rather interesting article published at FanSided, writer DJ Dunson points out that Rodgers is a long-time proponent of the "11 Personnel" grouping, which consists of one back, one tight end and three wide receivers, while that isn't necessarily the case with Smith, and that Rodgers does not like pre-snap motion at all, while Smith employs it quite a bit..

So in terms of getting on the same page, there could be some drama here. That is, if you're the type who looks for it.

Ben Roethlisberger voiced the opinion on his podcast that Rodgers' tenure with Pittsburgh could be "one and done," for other reasons, namely his age and his past injuries. "He’s going to feel better, but it doesn’t mean that he’s going to have two or three years left. I think this might be his last go," he said.

I don't think the Steelers are looking too far beyond this season when it comes to Rodgers. They're interested in putting together a combination that can win right now.

So who does Rodgers throw to?

Well, we can tell you that Metcalf is in, while prima donna George Pickens, who clashed often with Tomlin, is out. There are not a lot of star playmakers on the outside to distribute the ball to. And there is still some talk of efforts to make a trade for tight end Jonnu Smith, who made it to the AFC Pro Bowl roster as a member of the Miami Dolphins last year.

Defense must hold up its end of the bargain

>As is usually the case in Pittsburgh, there are a number of standouts on the defensive side of the ball. And the team finished eighth-best in the NFL in points allowed. TJ Watt is, of course, TJ Watt. Cornerback Darius Slay, who was with the Eagles, has signed as a free agent.

Tomlin saw a need on the defensive line because Cameron Heyward is advancing in age. So the team reached out and took Oregon DL Derrick Harmon with the 21st pick in the draft. Tomlin says that despite the perceived need for a quarterback, and trade offers that came in, he wasn't too interested in moving off a spot where he could get a guy who had what he calls "Steeler DNA."

"We weren't interested in considering trading away from him and really excited about getting him in here and getting started," Tomlin told reporters. Harmon could step right in without a lot of orientation; last season he led all FBS linemen in quarterback pressures from the defensive tackle position.

2025 Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions

It is questionable whether the Steelers are capable of winning the AFC North (+500 at Betonline.ag). The Baltimore Ravens have to be considered the team in control. The Cincinnati Bengals are potentially better because of the presence of Joe Burrow and his wide receiver corps.

However, there are some things you have to remember when you consider a "total wins" wager on the Steelers. One of those things is that in eighteen years as a head coach, Mike Tomlin has NEVER had a losing season. And through some of this he had to deal with a declining Ben Roethlisberger, and some quarterbacks who were considerably less than star-quality after Big Ben retired.

Another thing is that Rodgers, even at the age of 41, may be an upgrade over what the Steelers have had at the QB position recently. Despite some of the reservations we noted earlier, he may be a better fit with this team than Russell Wilson was last year.

So the Steelers may have more going for them than some people think.

While it is true that the situation could combust with Rodgers, that speculation might be overrated. If we can get even money that this team can finish over the .500 mark, we're going to take it. And the +165 price on a playoff appearance should be seriously looked at as well. Tomlin (12 times in the postseason) knows how to get there.

Aaron Rodgers is priced at +1600 to win the Comeback Player of the year award, as it is posted at BetOnline, where you've got plenty of NFL Futures wagers to look through in advance of the 2025 season . . . It's very easy to sign up for an account; use your debit or credit card, or choose any of sixteen different cryptocurrency options they have available, including Bitcoin!