NEW YORK JETS

NFL Futures Odds:

To Win Super Bowl +15000 (150-1)
To Win AFC Championship +7500
To Win AFC East +1200
Regular Season Wins -- Over 5.5 wins -150, Under 5.5 +120

You can be excused if your attitude toward the New York Jets is of the "wait and see" variety. After all, they have been through numerous regime changes, all of which have no doubt talked about "changing the culture." Each of them have gone out the back door after failing to make an impact on the AFC playoff race.

The Jets last made the postseason in 2010, and this constituted their second consecutive trip to the AFC title game under Rex Ryan. They've come up empty since, and now they are starting over with their fifth head coach since Ryan departed.

So one of the big questions on everyone's mind should be "What makes Aaron Glenn any different?"

Glenn has come along with some combative talk, just like Robert Saleh did he first rolled in.

"Tough, physical, violent, aggressive, a resilient attitude." Those are some of the words Glenn used to describe what he wants to see out of this team.

Glenn played eight of his 15 NFL seasons with the Jets. And he spent almost a decade as an assistant. As defensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions, he was not able to come up with enough adjustments to overcome the injuries his stop unit had suffered, and as a result the Lions gave up 45 points to the Washington Commanders in the NFC Divisional Round.

So here he is, not unlike a lot of assistants who served on staffs of teams that had a lot of success.

And what needs to be answered is, aside from being in the right place at the right time, what is Glenn bringing into this that makes his presence so unique?

Did the Jets handle things with Aaron Rodgers badly?

Along with Glenn, the Jets' other major commitment is at the quarterback position. Aaron Rodgers' tenure with the club was a strange one; he was hailed as the savior who was marching Gang Green back into the playoffs. By the time he was coming down the stretch in his second season with the team (the first one ruined by an Achilles injury), it was already a foregone conclusion in some circles that he wouldn't be around for the 2025 season, regardless of whether there was a regime change or not.

It's not that he was so awful; indeed, he came just 103 yards short of 4000 passing and had a decent 28-11 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions. But these were a decline from his numbers from just a few years prior, and the team didn't win.

After the 5-12 season, Glenn was brought in as the head coach with Darren Mougey as the general manager. And we guess Glenn wanted to throw something of an insult Rodgers' way, judging by the way he handled the news of his release.

New management puts their trust in Justin Fields

So did Glenn have a favorable alternative? Hmmm, good question. It is far from certain that Justin Fields is a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL, and that comes after four years of starting games in the league. Yet he was signed to a two-year, $40 million deal.

In Fields' defense, we know that there are some things he can do. He's demonstrated, for example, that he can run with the ball; in 2022 he led the league with 7.1 ypc on his way to 1143 rushing yards. And with the Steelers last year he threw just one interception in 161 attempts before giving way to Russell Wilson,

But he has a reputation of holding the ball too long before he throws it, quite possibly the by-product of an inability to read defenses quickly. In his first three seasons, he sustained 135 sacks against 958 attempts. That's a ratio of seven attempts per sack.

He did a little better at it last year, with ten attempted passes for every sack. So that's progress, we guess.

Could it be that he got rid of the ball more quickly?

Well, when he first came into the league, Fields averaged a "pocket time" of 2.5 seconds. He was still up at 2.5 seconds last year.

One thing we've noticed is that he didn't throw the ball as far last season.

When he was a rookie in '21, Fields seemed determined to get the ball down the field, averaging 9.8 Intended Air Yards (i.e., yards beyond the line of scrimmage) per attempt. In 2024, that was down to 7.7 IAY per throw. So he was more restrained. At the same time, he was more accurate (65.8%).

The Jets need some help at the wide receiver spot

As everyone knows, he's working with one of the better young receivers in the league (and former teammate at Ohio State) in Garrett Wilson, who is coming off his third straight season where he passed the 1000-yard mark. The Jets have picked up Josh Reynolds, but they are kind of thin at the wide receiver spot beyond Wilson.

Fourth-round pick Arian Smith of Georgia is a speed burner (4.36 in the 40), and he can help with stretching the field, but he dropped the ball a lot with the Bulldogs. Personally, I'm a fan of Malachi Corley, a second-year guy out of Western Kentucky, who's athletic with good hands. Maybe he'll help this year.

If Glenn intends for his team to be tough and physical, they are going to have to run the ball with some authority. The Jets were next to last in rushing yards in 2024, but Breece Hall has the potential to be a nice breakaway runner for them. And Braelon Allen, the kid out of Wisconsin who came into the NFL at age 20, has a load of talent.

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There is some upside in this offensive line

Up front there was a notable loss, as tackle Tyron Smith, who led the league in Run Black Win Rate (according to ESPN Analytics) retired.

But in the first round of the draft (the 11th pick), the Jets took Armand Membou of Missouri, reputably an animal who can play tackle or guard and competed all season in the SEC without allowing a sack.

He may start at tackle on one side opposite Olu Fashanu, who was the team's 2024 first-round pick out of Penn State. Guards John Simpson and Alijah Vera-Tucker graded out as capable, if not spectacular, run blockers according to Pro Football Focus.

Tanner Engstrand, who worked as passing game coordinator with the Lions, is the new offensive coordinator. The theme for Engstrand is that he wants this offense to operate "fast," "aggressive" and "physical." This is not unfamiliar CoachSpeak. Let's see if that happens. Something had better work; only once in the last 13 seasons have the Jets ranked higher than 23rd in scoring.

The Jets need to make up a lot of ground with good defense

The Jets' defense can be very gnarly at times. They allowed the third-fewest yards in the league, yielding only 18 passing touchdowns. There's been some attrition here, which has necessitated some new personnel.

There is also a new coordinator. Steve Wilks has been an assistant for many years in the NFL, not to mention serving as head coach in both Arizona and Carolina. in keeling with the general philosophy of Glenn, the objective of this unit is to attack more, although that kind of rhetoric isn't unusual when a new regime comes in.

Four-time Pro Bowl linebacker CJ Mosely was released, as the Jets looked to get younger at the position. One re-signing they're very happy about is Jamien Sherwood, a 25-year-old whose developed into one of their best defenders over the last four seasons. He got $30 million guaranteed on his $45 million, three-year contract.

Some of the mainstays are still around. Edge rusher Will McDonald IV had 10.5 sacks last year. Quinnen Williams, who was the third pick in the 2019 draft, has taken three trips to the Pro Bowl.

And there is cornerback Sauce Gardner, who's been named a first-team All-Pro twice, but has only one interception over the last two seasons. Part of it, of course, is that QB's just don't throw his way that much.

The Jets only had seven interceptions . That was 28th in the NFL. They'd like to force more turnovers, naturally. They believe that Andre Cisco, who grew up on Long Island, is a guy they can work with at free safety. Cisco grew frustrated with the effort his teammates produced in Jacksonville, so maybe he'll be more comfortable now.

2025 NY Jets Season Prediction

The transition to a "new culture" is, frankly, a tune we have heard before. So it will take more than posturing to convince us of anything.

The Jets do have some good people here and there, but they are still shy of personnel in some spots where they really need it.

As a wager, what this comes down to is a referendum on whether you believe Justin Fields is a legitimate starting quarterback who can take his team through a full season. The answer is that we're not sold on it. And if the Jets get into any trouble - injury or otherwise - at the position, they are left with Tyrod Taylor, whose ship has long since sailed, Adrian Martinez (who is largely a runner) and rookie Brady Cook, who may have long-range possibilities.

The Jets aren't going to win the AFC East. Will Fields and Glenn both get another season beyond this one? Yeah, they'll probably will. But this has the potential to become a dumpster fire. The +120 for "Under" 5.5 wins would probably make more sense than to go the other way.

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