Inisghts and predictions for every Breeders' Cup race on Saturday

The second day of the 41st running of the Breeders Cup features nine races on Saturday, includnig the 5 million dollar Classic. I handicap each race, looking at the contenders and offering picks, predictions and longshot opportunities for BC24.

Filly and Mare Sprint

Ways and Means is the morning line favorite and rightly so. While she has won at both longer and shorter distances, it is clear she is best at races around one turn. Her performance in the Grade 1 Test Stakes was particularly impressive and Chad Brown has had a lot of success in the Breeders' Cup. Her only mediocre race was a distant 4th in this year’s Kentucky Oaks on a sloppy track, where she can be forgiven and 3 year olds have always fared well at the Breeders' Cup. Vahva looked like a superstar in Kentucky before running flat in the Ballerina at Saratoga in August. She has rested since but looked great in warmups for this. Society won the Ballerina quite easily, but she was able to dictate the pace, plus she has tried the Breeders' Cup twice before and fell flat in both instances, leaving a question of whether she can handle the excitement and big crowds. Scylla was second in the Ballerina and has never been out of the money winning at many distances but she seems to be best at one turn. She has to step it up a notch to have a real chance against these. Zeitlos comes off two impressive wins at Keeneland, but she has never run a graded stakes and may be outclassed. Pleasant is the Bob Baffert entry here and she will likely be setting the pace. That said she was running at lesser tracks and its just hard to see her hanging on against this lot. One Magic Philly and Soul of an Angel can’t be totally counted out.

Filly & Mare Sprint Prediction: Winner: Ways and Means (5/2), Second Choice: Vahva (4/1), Long Shot Possibility: Soul of an Angel (12/1)

Turf Sprint

Big Evs returns to defend his win in this race last year, but he has been inconsistent since that victory. He had a hard fought win in the King George stakes at Goodwood in England, but then was solidly trounced by Bradsell and Believing in a Group 1 stakes at York in August. Bradsell has since had a solid win in Ireland and a good 2nd in a race in France on Arc de Triomphe day. Believing was just behind Bradsell in French race, but has just not been able to hang with the forementioned two. Big Evs has not raced since August. Cogburn is the morning line favorite after producing three consecutive wins in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races in Kentucky and New York, and his Beyer figures have been off the charts. He is strictly the one to beat. Isivunguvungu (say that three times fast) produced a huge win at Colonial Downs after running in South Africa, but seems to be a bit outclassed with these. AG Bullet won all four of his races at less than 7 furlongs on grass and can’t be counted out. And Star of Mystery is the true real closer in the race and could pull off the upset if the pace is hot. The other horses have all finished well behind Cogburn and would be a surprise.

Turf Sprint Prediction: Winner: Cogburn (7/5), Second Choice: AG Bullet (10/1), Long Shot Possibility: Big Evs (12/1)

Distaff

This race looks like a three horse contest between Thorpedo Anna, Raging Sea and Awesome Result. Thorpedo Anna is the overwhelming favorite given her five consecutive romps in New York, although her most impressive race was probably the second place finish to Fierceness in The Travers Stakes, considering Fierceness is the favorite for this year’s Classic and Thorpedo Anna had every chance to beat Fierceness in that race, losing by just a short head. If she runs back to that race she can win this by double digit lengths. Raging Sea has four wins in 5 tries this year, including an impressive closing finish over Idiomatic in the Personal Engsign stakes. Idiomatic would be a real contender here. Mind you without Idiomatic in the race it seems Thorpedo Anna may just go out on her own and never look back. Awesome Result is 7 for 7 in Japan, running excellent times and seems well bred. Loves Only You provided the shock upset for Japan in the 2021 Distaff at Del Mar and no doubt bettors will keep that in mind. Of the rest, only Candied seems like the only other horse that can be somewhat close to these.

Distaff Prediction: Winner: Thorpedo Anna (4/5), Second Choice: Awesome Result (4/1), Long Shot Possibility: None

Turf

The Turf has always been a race fans have looked forward to since the best of Europe and the U.S. compete to see which continent has the best grass racers, but this year’s edition is a disgrace. None of the big winners in Europe have opted to enter this race and City of Troy, which is the only horse that can be considered among the top in Europe racing this year, has decided to run in the Classic instead. A race dominated by Europeans, this year’s edition should be no different. Godolphin’s Rebel’s Romance won this race for the stable and jockey William Buick in 2022 and despite issues in 2023 he has won 4 of 5 races in Europe this year, losing only the King and Queen Qipco Stakes at Ascot, arguably the toughest Stakes to win in England. If he runs back to the 2022 Breeders' Cup he could win this race by Secretariat-type margins. Jayarebe is an intriguing French horse, winning four races in 7 tries but has yet to try a Group 1 race and may be a little outclassed here. Far Bridge seems to be the best North American chance, having won the Sword Dancer and Turf Classic in back-to-back races in New York. But he has struggled in the past with the best. Sharyar was second to Rebel’s Romance in a Dubai race earlier this year, but other than a decent second in the Japan Cup in 2022, he has shown no indication he can compete with these. Similarly, Rhousham Park, another Japanese horse, gives no reason he should be considered in the same group as this field, although Japanese horses as discussed have pulled off upsets in the past. Rhousham Park was soundly defeated by Luxembourg, an Aidan O’Brien hopeful who cannot be completely counted out, although he was beaten soundly by Rebel’s Romance in the Ascot race previously mentioned. Emily Upjohn has been near the front in a few races, but again was beaten soundly by Rebel’s Romance and Luxembourg earlier in the year. The others all seem to be no chancers, although Wingspan, an Aidan O’Brien 3-year old filly is taking a chance likely for a small share.

Turf Prediction: Winner: Rebels Romance (5/2), Second Choice: Luxembourg (12/1), Long Shot Possibility: None

Classic

Always the last race on the card, last year the Classic was switched to the third last race because NBC apparently was hoping to build up Peacock and FanDuel TV by making them the only options to watch the last three races of the Cup. And this year there are four races after the Classic. It is also believed that the move was necessary because they didn’t want to compete with college football. City of Troy ships in from England and is the morning line favorite for Aidan O’Brien. He has 6 wins in 7 races, his only blemish being a sound beating in the 2000 Guineas, although that race came off a long layoff and O’Brien said he needed it as a tune up. City of Troy is currently ranked second in the Longines World Rankings, only one spot behind Laurel River, who won the Dubai World Cup by 8 lengths. That said the rankings only look at European horses and this will be City of Troy’s first try on dirt. Some Europeans have succeeded first time out on dirt, including Arcangue, who won the Breeders' Cup Classic at over 100/1 odds in the 1980s, but generally speaking European horses have not fared well in Breeders' Cup dirt races.

Fierceness was trounced in the Kentucky Derby as the favorite after he won the Florida Derby by over 13 lengths, but he bounced back with wins in the Jim Dandy Stakes and Travers Stakes and is probably the one to beat. Sierra Leone came flying in the Kentucky Derby to lose by only a length to Mystic Dan and then had an impressive third in the Belmont Stakes despite stumbling at the start and losing all chance. He subsequently lost to Fierceness in the forementioned races, but on his best day he could pull off the upset. Next won all four of his races this year by a combined 54 lengths, including a dominating win in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap in New York by 9 lengths, but this will be his first try in a Grade 1. There is no question the horse is getting better with age and the drop back from 1.5 miles to 1.25 miles will likely be good for him since he likes to race near the lead. Ushba Tesoro, the Japanese horse, was my pick to win the Classic last year and while he made a good move in the stretch he was never able to get close to White Abaro. He has not won in 2024, although he did finish a distant second to Laurel River in the Dubai World Cup and would not be a total shocker to pull this off. Forever Young, another Japanese horse, finished a close up third in the thrilling 3-way photo in the Kentucky Derby, where Mystic Dan just beaten Sierra Leone and Forever Young had just one race after that winning the Japan Dirt Classic. The rail won’t help, but he should be right there at the end. Highland Falls won the Jockey Club Gold Cup, usually a good indicator leading into this, but both he and Newgate were beaten badly by others in this race and seem to have their work cut out for them. None of the other horses look like real contenders.

Breeders' Cup Classic Prediction: Winner: Next (8/1), Second Choice: Sierra Leone (12/1), Long Shot Possibility: Ushba Tesoro (12/1)

Filly and Mare Turf

War Like Goddess tries the Breeders' Cup for the 3rd time, although this year she is racing against her own sex rather than running in the Turf as she did in 2022 and 2023. She has run four races in 2024, including a win in a race at Delaware and a close up second in the Turf Classic, a race she won in 2023. She may be the one to beat, but there are definitely others with credentials just as good. Cinderella’s Dream won four straight races in England and Dubai before being beaten soundly in the 1000 Guineas, but she since bounced back with wins in a Grade 1 and Grade 2 race in New York. The Godolphin filly will be tough here. Moira ran this race last year and was a good third at the end despite a bobble and comes off a hard fought second in the EP Taylor Stakes in Toronto. If the pace is fast, she could be there charging at the end. Aidan O’Brien runs two horses in this race, including Content, who ran the Juvenile Filly Turf last year and was closing in the stretch, but was a well beaten fourth, and Ylang Ylang looked good in 2023, but has struggled in 2024 running races in Ireland and France. Despite Content is looking like the better horse, but it is notable that Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Ylang Ylang, possibly because Content was a handful in last year’s Breeders' Cup. Full Count Felicia easily won the EP Taylor and has been very impressive in races in both the U.S. and Canada. That said, no horse has ever won the Breeders' Cup after winning the EP Taylor. Anisette is intriguing with six wins in California after moving there from England, although she has been beaten by Hang the Moon and Didia in prior races and all three seem a cut below the top three horses in this race. Soprano can’t be completely counted out either.

Filly and Mare Turf Prediction: Winner: Cinderella’s Dream (4/1), Second Choice: Moira (8/1), Long Shot Possibility: Full Count Felicia (12/1)

Sprint

An interesting race this year sees at least seven of the 11 runners with a chance to win. Mullikin comes in with four wins in four races in 2024. He looked like a good allowance horse, but after consecutive stakes wins, including a dominating performance in New York in the Forego Handicap, he seems the one to beat. Jockey Flavian Prat has chosen to ride him over Federal Judge, who is the morning line favorite and soundly beat a good field in a Keeneland stakes race. Nakatomi was third in this race last year and was favored against Federal Judge in that forementioned race, but was a well-beaten five lengths. He could turn that around. Straight No Chaser was a six length winner at Santa Anita, but he is all speed and when he gets challenged he seems to falter fast. With this group he will not have things all his own way at the front. The same can be said for Skelly, who draws the outside post. When able to dictate the pace he looks unbeatable, but when challenged he does cede the lead and Skelly lost to both Nakatomi and Remake in 2024. Remake, a Japanese contender, has been racing all over the world and would be no shock, but he lost twice to Don Frankie, who technically may be the better horse of the two and Meta Max, the third Japanese horse in the race looks outclassed. Raging Torrent won three straight races, but against much better horses and the rail won’t help. Mind you he was deemed good enough early in his career to race in both the American Pharaoh Stakes and the Del Mar Futurity.

Sprint Prediction: Winner: Mullikin (7/2), Second Choice: Federal Judge (3/1), Long Shot Possibility: Don Frankie (15/1)

Mile

Always an exciting and competitive race this year is no exception. Notable Speech is the morning line favorite for Godolphin thanks to five wins in 7 races, including wins in the highly regarded 2000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes, but his last race in France was hardly overwhelming proving he can be beaten. Porta Fortuna was a close up second in the Juvenile Turf last year and this year she has won three of her four starts, with her only loss a narrow defeat in the 1000 Guineas. Ramatuelle is a French hopeful and draws the rail and while she had some good races, she did lose twice to Porta Fortuna. Johannes is the California hopeful raking in four straight victories in impressive fashion at Santa Anita an Del Mar and could be the European spoiler. Carl Spackler has seven wins in 10 races racing mostly in New York and Kentucky and the victory in his last race leading into this was especially impressive. The outside post won’t help his chances though. More than Looks is a true closer and just lost to Carl Spackler in his last two races. Diego Velasquez is Aidan O’Brien’s hopeful in this race and though the Frankel horse has two consecutive wins, he appears a tad below the other Europeans here. Ten Happy Rose will try to win for Japan, but looks totally outclassed.

Mile Prediction: Winner: Porta Fortuna (4/1), Second Choice: Notable Choice (3/1), Long Shot Possibility: More than Looks (20/1)

Dirt Mile

The final race of the Breeders' Cup is the Dirt Mile and it could be the most competitive. Muth finished second to Fierceness in last year’s Juvenile and this year won the Arkansas Derby, making him look like a favorite for the Triple Crown races, but he had to sit them out due to injury. He subsequently won a non-graded race at Del Mar, but was trounced in his last race at the track at a longer distance, making it clear that the mile is his best distance. Domestic Product was soundly beaten in the Kentucky Derby, but comes off 2 good wins in New York heading into this and wouldn’t be a surprise. That said, he has no business being the morning line favorite. Seize the Grey won the Preakness Stakes, was soundly beaten in the Belmont Stakes and then again in the Travers. He heads into this race, however, with a victory in the Pennsylvania Derby, where he was able to grab the early lead and it seems that the mile to the mile and an eigth distance seems to be his preferred distance to race. Saudi Crown looked incredible early in his career, but has been hit and miss since, including a trouncing in the Breeders' Cup Classic last year. The rail may not be an issue for him since it’s a short distance from the start line to the turn. Skippylongstocking was my upset possibility in this race last year and he ran a great race but was no match for Cody’s Wish. Since then he has run seven races and recorded some good wins, although he has also had some stinkers as well, including a loss to Post Time, a horse who has never been out of the money and could pull off a shocker. Mufasa was racing in Chili but has been excellent since coming to the U.S., including a dominating win in the Vosburgh Stakes at Aqueduct in New York. He could surprise but I doubt it.

Dirt Mile Prediction: Winner: Seize the Grey (10/1), Second Choice: Muth (9/2), Long Shot Possibility: Post Time (12/1)

Read insights from Hartley Henderson every week here at OSGA and check out Hartley's RUMOR MILL!