Oscars predictions for every category

Conan O’Brien returns to host this year’s Oscars which is unfortunate. The last time O’Brien hosted it was a dull broadcast and Kimmel killed it the last two years. Nevertheless, the night is about the awards and not the host. I had another good year last year with a couple of upsets, although the main categories all went to who they were supposed to, with Oppenheimer dominating. This year it’s not so crystal clear. Two movies have a real shot to win best picture and one movie has an upset chance. And even for best actor and best actress, the Oscar is truly up for grabs.

So, let’s start with the top categories. All odds are courtesy of BetOnline.ag as of February 26th Where BetOnline does not have odds, FanDuel odds were used instead.

Best Picture

In the early going it appeared that The Brutalist, a movie about a Holocaust survivor emigrating to the United States was going to be hard to beat. It won most critics awards and Best Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes. But since that date, as other more significant awards were handed out, it won nothing. The Producer’s Guild Award (PGA) went to Anora, a convoluted movie about an American stripper working in a Russian neighborhood in Brooklyn who is set up with the son of a Russian oligarch. The oligarch convinces her to marry him at Nevada wedding chapel to get a green card and the rest of the movie centers around the Oligarch parents trying to get the wedding annulled. It’s the type of movie plot that often wins an Oscar, plus the movie one the Director’s Guild Award (DGA). It seemed like a sure thing until Conclave started getting notice after Pope Benedict took ill, and it got more attention after winning best picture at the BAFTA awards, which lately has been a good predictor of Oscar success. Last week the movie won best ensemble cast at the SAG awards, clearly making it a two-way race. Conclave, about a papal conclave that is arranged after the death of a Pope, and the Cardinal in charge of the conclave learning about the skeletons in the closet of all the contenders is certainly timely. The Academy had until February 18th to vote, which could make the SAG Award less meaningful, but the fact it still took home the award and the likely influence of the BAFTA win makes it a solid contender.

While it’s rare for the winner of the PGA and DGA awards to not win best picture at the Oscars, it wouldn’t be the first time. Apollo 13 in 1995, Saving Private Ryan in 1998, Brokeback Mountain in 2005, Gravity in 2013, La La Land in 2016, and 1917 in 2019 all won both awards and lost the Oscars. In those years the favorites were all deemed weak choices in a bad year for movies and this year seems to be reminiscent of that. It should be noted that Shakespeare in Love, which beat Saving Private Ryan, won the BAFTA and SAG award just like Conclave, as did 12 years a Slave beating Gravity.

Prediction for Best Motion Picture: All the steam seems to be on Conclave and with the Pope on death’s door (at least it seemed that way when voting closed), I look for Conclave to take the Best Picture Oscar at odds of +280.

Best Actor

This is a two-way race. Adrien Brody in The Brutalist seemed like a virtual lock after winning all the early awards and BAFTA but Timothee Chalamet, playing Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown got a lot of notice leading up to the SAG Award which he won. There’s no question that the SAG is the most important predictor for actor success at the Oscars, but Brody won the BAFTA, Golden Globe for Actor Drama and Critics Choice Award, while Chalamet really only won the SAG and a couple of small film critics awards.

Prediction for Best Actor: Adrien Brody will win the award at -190 odds which is pretty good considering he was 1/7 odds not long ago.

Best Actress

Demi Moore got a lot of attention for her performance in The Substance, a movie about an older actress who takes a drug that transforms her into a younger version of herself, but many critics said that her performance was almost a co-lead role since much of the movie features Margaret Qualley, who plays the younger Moore. Nevertheless, Moore won a few awards including the Golden Globe but most importantly, she won the SAG Award, which makes her the clear favorite. The only other real candidate is Mikey Madison, who plays the forementioned stripper in the film Anora. Madison won a few critics awards and the BAFTA award which is significant since Anora did not win best picture at the BAFTAs yet they gave Madison the best actress award instead of Moore, making it clear that the Brits likely viewed Moore’s performance as many others had, i.e. only a co-lead role.

Best Actress Prediction: Mikey Madison at +185 will pull off the mild upset

Best Director

The winner of this award usually goes to the DGA winner and this year that was given to Sean Baker for Anora. Brady Corbet won the award at the BAFTAs and at the Golden Globes for The Brutalist and the other directors nominated seem to have no chance. Edward Berger was not nominated for Conclave, which is unfortunate because I believe if that movie does as well as I think, he could have won the Best Director award. The question is which director will the Academy prefer of the two obvious choices?

Prediction for Best Director: I believe Anora will not do as well as predicted at the Oscars and will fail in this category too. So, I’ll take Brady Corbet at +130 to win even though The Brutalist has little chance for best picture.

Best Supporting Actor

This may be the biggest lock of the night. Kieren Culkin in the movie A Real Pain has won every single award leading up to the Oscars and will win this as well.

Prediction for Best Supporting Actor: If you enjoy winning 2 cents on the dollar, bet Keiren Culkin at -5000 odds.

Best Supporting Actress

Unfortunately, like Supporting Actor there is one actress, Zoe Saldana, who has won every single award leading up to this including the Golden Globe, BAFTA and SAG Award and she won’t lose this either. There are a few who think that Ariana Grande has a shot for her singing performance in Wicked, but I just don’t see it happening.

Best Supporting Actress Prediction: Zoe Saldana at -3000 is a lock.

Best Original Screenplay

The Writers Guild Award is the best predictor in this category of which film will win the Oscar. Two out of every three winners of this award since 2000 have won the Oscar and most times when a film does not win the Oscar it is because it wasn’t nominated. The WGA Award this year went to Anora, but the BAFTA Award went to A Real Pain and the Critics Choice Award went to The Substance, during the heart of Oscar voting. The Brutalist also has a small shot, although it really didn’t win any writing awards. Often when the Academy expects a film to win a few awards at the Oscars it will give either this or the Adapted Screenplay award to a different film to even it out. The most famous example of that is when Billy Bob Thornton won the Original Screenplay Oscar for Sling Blade despite the English Patient winning absolutely every major award.

Best Original Screenplay Prediction: On the basis of its win at the BAFTA and the fact the film really has no chance to win anything else other than Kieren Culkin, I’m going to predict an upset and take A Real Pain to pull off the upset at good odds.  

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nickel Boys won the award at the WGA Awards, but Conclave won almost every other award writing award, including the Golden Globe and BAFTA awards. And as mentioned earlier, if there is suspicion that Anora will take Best Picture then a lot of Academy members will want to reward the film elsewhere and this is the most obvious option. Emilia Perez, who for a while seemed like it had a chance at major film success, is the next choice but it would be a shock.

Prediction for Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave will be hard to beat at -1100 odds

Best Animated Feature

This is a two-way race between The Wild Robot and Flow. The Wild Robot, about a robot that gets shipwrecked on an uninhabited island and becomes the adoptive parent of a wild goose was a box office smash for DreamWorks and won the most important industry award, the Annie Award, plus it won the Critics Choice Award. Flow, however, a movie about a cat and some dogs trying to survive as the water builds up around them won The Golden Globe Award and far more industry awards than Wild Robot. It appears a lot of critics loved the fact that it didn’t feature dialogue of talking animals. Wallace & Gromit Vengeance Most Fowl won the BAFTA award, but it really didn’t garner a lot of enthusiasm outside of Britain plus box office receipts were terrible.

Best Animated Feature Prediction: Flow at +200 odds will pull off a mild upset

Best Original Song

This seemed to be a race between two songs in Emilia Perez. El Mal and Mi Camino. After winning the Critics Choice Award and the Golden Globe El Mal was the clear choice of the two, but there’s no question the two songs can cancel each other out. The Journey by Diane Warren in the movie The Six Triple Eight is seen as a possible upset. Warren was nominated for Best Song 15 times before but lost each time. The Academy may view this as a chance to reward her. Moreover, the movie Emilia Perez has fallen out of favor. Never Too Late by Elton John from the movie of the same name can’t be ignored simply because it was written and sung by Elton John, but it’s not one of his better offerings.

Prediction for Best Original Song: El Mal at -300 will win although I’d like to see Warren get her first Oscar.

Best International Film

For a while it looked like Emilia Perez had this locked up winning the Golden Globe and BAFTA awards among others for best foreign film but it has been getting killed as Deadline, Variety and other important publications are saying that the film, which is nominated for 13 Oscars, just isn’t that good and is badly overrated. At the same time, the Brazilian film I’m Still Here has been getting great critical acclaim and notice ever since it was nominated for the Best Picture at the Oscars. In the past, when a sure thing in this category started imploding due to bad reviews, a different film won. It happened to Pans Labyrinth, it happened to Amelia, and it seems like history is repeating itself.

Prediction for Best International Film: I’m Still Here will win the award at -200 odds

Best Film Editing

The Film Editing Award (Eddie) is a great predictor of Oscar success, but the award this year won’t be handed out until after the Oscars, so we’ll have to predict this without that option. This award more often than not is given to the Best Picture winner, which makes Conclave and Anora the favorites. Since my prediction for best picture is Conclave, I have no reason to choose against it here, not to mention Conclave did win the editing award at the BAFTAs.

Prediction for Best Film Editing: Conclave at -200 should win this award.

Best Cinematography

The ASC Award is the most industry award and it went to Maria in a big upset, but the award was handed out last Friday which was after voting was over for the Oscars, so it should not have much influence. The Brutalist is the favorite winning the BAFTA Award although Nosferatu, a vampire horror film and Dune Part Two are given an upset chance. Emilia Perez has no chance. Dune Part Two is not the type of film that wins in this category so I will pass. Nosferatu is given a chance due to winning the Art Directors Guild Award to be discussed next.

Prediction for Best Cinematography: The Brutalist at -400 should win, but I’ll put a couple of bucks on Maria at +1600 just because it won the ASC Award, and it could shock everyone in a tough category.

Best Production Design

The award that is given for how a film looks rarely goes to the Best Picture winner. The best predictor for this category is the Art Directors Guild Awards which hands out awards for contemporary film and fantasy film. Those awards went to Nosferatu for Period Film and Wicked for Fantasy Film. The BAFTA award went to Wicked. The Brutalist and Conclave are nominated in this category but as mentioned they are being hailed for content and not for looks of the film. Wicked, a massive box office hit has to get its share of wins other than for costume and this seems like a place to award it. The film about the back story of the Wicked Witch of the West from the Wizard of Oz was indeed a masterpiece of design and should take this.

Prediction for Best Production Design: Wicked at -425 should be hard to beat.

Best Sound

Three films have a chance here. Dune Part Two is the favorite after winning the Motion Picture Sound Editors Award. It also won the BAFTA award. Wicked won the Motion Picture Sound Editor Award for music and could upset, but a lot of attention is being paid to A Complete Unknown. Several critics have noted just how terrific the sound was in that movie after Chalamet’s upset win at the SAG Awards

Best Sound Prediction: Dune Part Two should win at -375

Best Score

The Brutalist has won almost every single award for best score leading into this and will be hard to beat at -450 odds.

Best Documentary Feature

This is a two horse race between No Other Land, a film by two Israelis and two Palestinians filmed in the West Bank about tensions as Israel wants to use the land for military testing, while the Palestinians living there say it’s their land and want the Israeli government to back off. Porcelain War is about Ukrainian artists facing reality as Russia tries to take over the land during their conflict. Needless to say, both films are controversial, just as the Academy loves it, but with Trump threatening to take over Gaza and with his buddying up to Vladimir Putin there’s no question that it may come down to which film is less likely to cause a fuss or for Trump to tweet out about how horrible the Oscars are. A documentary about Christopher Reeves won the BAFTA and the Producers Guild Award for best Documentary, so the fact it is overlooked here as a nominee almost makes it like the year Ben Affleck was not nominated for Director for Argo, which the academy admitted was a mistake. It would have also been a less controversial winner. Porcelain War did win the DGA Award for documentary which is significant.

Prediction for Best Documentary Feature: Porcelain War will win at +125 because the Palestinian issue is just too controversial right now.

Best Visual Effects

Dune Part Two at -1400 is a sure thing. Let’s move on.

Best Costume Design

Wicked has won all the awards for this including the BAFTA and Costume Design Guild award and rightly so. The costumes are what makes the film so spectacular. Conclave could pull off the upset, but it seems easier to dress up a few people to look like Cardinals that it is to dress up actresses to look authentically like witches.

Prediction for Best Costume Design: Wicked at -2000 should win easily.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

While one would think that using makeup and hairstyling to make a woman look green in Wicked would win awards, all the awards in this category so far including the BAFTA Award and the Makeup and Hairstyling Guild Award went to The Substance. There’s really no reason to expect that it will change here.

Prediction for Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Substance at -1200 should pull this off easily.

Short Films

As usual for these films I turn to my friend who is a self-described expert in these things and has a good record. His predictions are The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (+175 odds) for live action short, The Only Girl in the Orchestra (+500 odds) for documentary short and Beautiful Man (+240 odds) for animated short.

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