Perfection Reflection And NFL Week 2 Insights



FairwayJay Starts 2019 NFL Week 1 With 4-0 ATS 'Dog Log, But His 10-0 Week 2 A Decade Ago Was A Historic Week

History shows that Week 2 in the NFL invariably provides more surprises and upsets, along with some focused and determined efforts as teams try to avoid starting the season 0-2. 

Following a 4-0 sweep on our Week 1 NFL underdog plays, we'll be shooting for the green again knowing NFL Week 2 was my best-ever week nearly a decade ago during a time when I was documented with 8 straight winning seasons in NFL point spread prognosis. For OSGA readers and other Fairway followers, we've been able to make more birdies and get the green on the gridiron going 55-27 ATS (67%) the past 2+ years on our weekly Fairway's Football Forecast and NFL underdogs picks with added insightful analysis.

NFL Home Underdogs

This week there are seven home underdogs in Week 2 NFL action, including a record 19.5-point home underdog at Heritage Sports with the Dolphins hosting the Patriots in Miami. Leading online sportsbook BetOnline and many other shops have New England a 19-point favorite. In 2007, New England closed a 19-point favorite at Baltimore, but by the amount of betting activity supporting the Patriots at the leading online sportsbooks, we may see this line hit 20 by Sunday kickoff. 

A consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks including BookMaker and 5Dimes shows 80% of the bets on New England over Miami mid-week as tracked by Sports Insights

winning NFL picksIt's a very safe bet that I will not be betting on the Patriots this week. Our continued pursuit of profit showing the way with underdogs is proving profitable, and there is a smorgasborg of live 'Dogs that can deliver in Week 2.

Week 2 Winless Teams Match-ups

The winless teams in Week 2 match-ups begins Thursday when Carolina (-6.5) hosts Tampa Bay after each dropped their home openers last week. 

Other Week 2 winless teams matched up includes: 

Jacksonville at Houston (-9)
Chicago (-2.5) at Denver
Cleveland (-2.5) at NY Jets

Look Ahead Lines

Review the weekly NFL Look Ahead Lines that I provide and take note of the line changes from the previous week when FanDuel and the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas provide advance lines for the following weeks game prior to the current weeks games being played. You can see some of the significant (over) reaction to the results, including New England being a 9.5 and 11-point projected favorite in Week 2, only to see it skyrocket to -19 after the Dolphins were blown out 59-10 at home by Baltimore and most everyone watched New England pound Pittsburgh 33-3 on Sunday Night Football. The Texans were also just a 3-point favorite on the Week 2 look ahead line, and now Houston is a 9-point favorite over Jacksonville. Injury impact along with team performance influences the market and adjustments, and Jaguars starting QB Nick Foles is now out for an extended time following a broken shoulder opening week. 

Week 2 Highlights, Scoring, Stats and Success 

Last year, 765 points were scored opening week - the 3rd highest-scoring opening week in NFL history. Now in 2019 Week 1, NFL scoring went higher and totaled 778 points or 48.8 points per game. In 2018, the NFL had a record scoring year with games averaging 46.6 points per game. 

As you watch and review the NFL games, recaps, boxscores and follow my NFL Inside the Numbers updates, here are the team averages from the 2018 NFL season and offensive stats to compare as the 2019 season progresses.

352 - yards per game
61 - plays per game
5.77 - yards per play (up sharply)
115 - rushing yards per game
4.4 - yards per rush
26 - rushing attempts per game
237 - passing yards per game
35 - pass attempts per game
22 - pass completions per game
6.9 - yards gained per pass
63% - pass completion percentage
46.6 - NFL combined points per game (record) 

Week 2 of the NFL season invariably brings back great memories, as I had a all-time best record-breaking week in the 2009 NFL season. At the time, I was providing selection services for a well-known Las Vegas sports handicapping company and a regular guest on a popular daily sports handicapping show heard nationwide and on Sirius/XM Radio. 

That particular week, I released the biggest NFL selection card of my professional handicapping career spanning over a decade. I bet and provided personal clients 10 NFL selections in Week 2 and went a perfect 10-0!! I also provided and posted publicly a written analysis for every game on the NFL card that week. 

Fairway Jay winning picksSaints (-1)…Win 48-22
Rams (+9.5)…Win 7-9
NY Jets (+3.5)…Win 16-9
NY Jets/Patriots under 45.5…Win 16-9
Falcons (–6)…Win 28-20
Raiders (+3)…Win 13-10
Bengals (+9)…Win 31-24
49ers (-1)…Win 23-10
Bears (+3)…Win 17-14
Chargers/Ravens over 40…Win 31-26 

I now provide my expertise, handicapping and sports betting insight to a number of outlets including OSGA and Forbes

As my interests and passions continue in the sports betting arena, I continue on a path of pursuing profit and working on my chosen schedule. I cover the games and events from tee to green, and also as a media member while reporting from contests and events that includes sports betting, gaming and poker. I enjoy sports and the wagering component like tens of millions of other Americans. 

Week 2 of the NFL season will always be a special one in my perfection reflection from a 10-0 week. The football season is a special time during the sports seasons, and I, like many millions of American's enjoy all things surrounding the football season from year-long and daily fantasy (DFS), to sports betting and in-game opportunities, props, parlays, football handicapping and other contests. In the weekly coverage of all things football and sportsbooks, it's great to be involved in the NFL and the fun and entertainment it provides. 

You can bet on it.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


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