Our LATE Picks For the Belmont Stakes .... and BetOnline Props

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sat, Jun 5th, 2021 6:04:26 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


Essential Quality is back in the favorite's role, this time for the Belmont Stakes early Saturday evening.


You can't help but think there's something of a letdown with this year's Belmont Stakes. There are only eight entrants in the field, and three of them are trained by the same man. We do not have the presence of a "newcomer" of sorts; a horse who did not race in either of the other legs of the Triple Crown who looms as a genuine force (I think of a monster named Conquistador Cielo in 1982).

There is also the dark cloud of Medina Spirit hanging over the proceedings, although he won't be competing on Saturday evening. Of course, he had won the Kentucky Derby and then tested positive for a banned substance. Just this week the results of the split sample confirmed it. The assumption is that he will be disqualified, which is indeed a black eye for the sport.

It would have been especially bizarre had Medina Spirit won the Preakness and come to Elmont with the possibility of winning the Triple Crown.

This 153rd running of the Belmont Stakes is not likely to supply a "feel-good" story to help revive the state of things.

But they're going to run it nonetheless, at 6:49 PM ET on NBC. The purse is $1.5 million. And the journey of a mile and a half represents a distance none of these contestants have ever traversed.

Of course, that's almost always the case over "Big Sandy," which offers the "Test of the Champion" because these horses have to have both speed and power.

Here are the odds on the 153rd Belmont Stakes as they are posted at BetOnline:

1 - Bourbonic +1500
2 - Essential Quality +200
3 - Rombauer +300
4 - Hot Rod Charlie +350
5 - France Go De Ina +3000
6 - Known Agenda +600
7 - Rock Your World +450
8 - Overtook +2000


Only 42 winners of the Preakness have come back and won the Belmont. That's only 27.6%. So that might not bode well for Rombauer (+300), who ran from behind to win at Pimlico and is known as a closer.

Of course, that comes out to odds a little better than 3-1.

Not that closers are necessarily favored in this situation. But there is always a chance that horses get tired. You can become naturally attracted to a horse who can run late.

Another thing you've got to consider is the horse that went into the Derby as a favorite, and then got victimized by the big field. Of course, we're talking about Essential Quality, who's the favorite here as well.

Well, there's no big field on hand. Undefeated coming into Churchill Downs, is he the best horse in this lineup?

There's a pedigree, for sure. Tapit's progeny has been as prolific as that from any other sire in moder Belmont history. Think about it - three sons have won this race in the last seven years. You've got Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016) and Tapwrit (2017);

In other words, Essential Quality is bred to go this distance. And when you don't have past performances at this specific distance to look at, that has to be an extremely strong consideration.

Todd Pletcher can't be ignored. He has won this race three times, and finished second on six other occasions. He'll start three horses here; Bourbonic was the come-from-way-back, 72-1 upset winner of the Wood Memorial. But the criticism is that it was a weak field. He came back and ran 13th in the Derby. Overtook is in here for a reason, but there's been very little accomplishment. However, he's by Curlin, with grandsire AP Indy, who posted the second best time in the history of this race (with Easy Goer).

Known Agenda is the contender most would be pointing at when discussing Pletcher's possibilities. And you can throw the Derby effort out, as he got a disadvantageous post position (the rail). Like Overtook, he's by Curlin.

And France Go De Ina maybe comes in as a mystery horse, because the Japanese-based colt came to America after a disappointing effort in the UAE Derby and then came seventh. BUT his connections haven't been secretive about the fact that he has been pointed toward the Belmont.

Unfortunately, France Go De Ina may be the best choice for another betting prop at BetOnline..... to trail the field at the end.

To Finish Last?

5 France Go de Ina +250
8 Overtook +275
1 Bourbonic +350
6 Known Agenda +1000
7 Rock Your World +1000
4 Hot Rod Charlie +1400
3 Rombauer +1600
2 Essential Quality +2000

A gate to wire finish? I'd bet "No" on that at -750 (the "Yes" is +450).

Two of the entrants in our exacta box wouldn't be much of a surprise, with Essential Quality and Known Agenda. We want to throw a longshot in there, so why not the one Pletcher is inserting with this race in mind.

Of course, we're talking about Overtook, and I also wouldn't mind +500 on him as a horse to finish in the top three, as we can bet that at BetOnline, where you've got dozens and dozens of props to enjoy yourself with, in addition to the $10,000 Belmont Stakes Matchup Contest, where you can win your share of the $10,000 purse by picking ten matchups on the race. Check the site for details!


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