Picks, Props and Parlays for Week 11 of the NFL Season

The New England Patriots (9-2) are the first team to 9-wins this season following their 8th straight victory on Thursday night football to kickoff NFL Week 11. The Patriots (-12.5) win over the woeful New York Jets (2-8) was right on the side and total for bettors and bookmakers in the 27-14 final. Nine division games headline the NFL Week 11 card including the biggest games between the Seahawks-Rams and Chiefs-Broncos plus top NFC teams and division leaders Lions-Eagles. I evaluate those games and more with analysis and information you can bet on for leading online sportsbook BetOnline. 

By the way, I'm one of many in the industry and media outside of millions of fans who comment on the bumbling quarterback play of some of these NFL quarterbacks. That includes Justin Fields, whose 501 passing yards in the first half of nine games this season ranks 32nd. The Jets offense produced less than 100 yards offense in the first half for the sixth time this season Thursday night against the Patriots. No other team has more than three. Recall in Week 10 the Jets 'beat' the Browns 27-20 despite just 12 first downs and 169 yards offense and 47 plays to 70 for the Cleveland. Playbook Sports notes that the brutal Browns became the first NFL team since 1950 to lose a game despite not committing any turnovers and limiting their opponent to 175 or fewer total yards. Teams in this role were 225-0. 

Check out the New York Jets writer for The Athletic and his posts on X about Fields and the Jets, who have solid play on the right side of the offensive line for Fields and the offense. Yet the Jets defense has produced numbers almost disbelieving too, with just one takeaway and zero interceptions in 10 games this season. They hired a defensive guy as their head coach, and he made more ridiculous comments following their loss to the Patriots. He should be 'one-and-done' too, having also made the decision to bring in one of his own as an overpaid, incapable starting pro quarterback. There are plenthy of other terrible decisions, drafts and trading away picks for other teams like the Panthers and QB Bryce Young, and the Browns with their annual terrible decisions with quarterbacks, drafts and trades (see DeShaun Watson). 

Keeping Justin Fields at QB works counter to that goal (evaluating players for 2026). He’s not the answer now, or later. That was even more stark as MVP chants rained down on Drake Maye on Thursday night. These two teams were sitting together in the mud last year. Now, they couldn’t be further apart.

Ok, on to Week 11 weekend and I chip-in more picks, props and parlays with information you can bet on following last week's poor pick on the pathetic performance of the Carolina Panthers and their continued clueless quarterback. The 'Dogs ruled the early Sunday action and Thursday last week as we chipped-in a 2-team 'Dog parlay winner plus 2-2 on player props (15-7 since Week 3). That included the Monday Night Football Eagles-Packers 10-7 final with a big plus price player prop winner and 1-reception short loser on the Eagles leading target. 

Follow along here at Off Shore Gaming Assocation as we also provide weekly tips, totals, teasers and trends for Week 11 plus by picks, parlays and props with insight, analysis and information you can bet on.

NFL Week 11 Odds

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites and division games in bold. 

- New York Jets at New England (-12.5), 42.5 - Thursday, Patriots win 27-14. 
- Washington at Miami (-2.5), 47.5 - Madrid, Spain
- Green Bay (-7) at New York Giants, 42.5
- Tampa Bay at Buffalo (-5.5), 47.5
- Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-5.5), 49
- Houston (-6) at Tennessee, 37
- Chicago at Minnesota (-3), 48.5
- Carolina at Atlanta (-3.5), 42.5
- Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville, 43.5
- Seattle at Los Angeles Rams (-3), 48.5
- San Francisco (-3) at Arizona, 48.5
- Baltimore (-9) at Cleveland, 39
- Kansas City (-4) at Denver, 45
- Detroit at Philadelphia (-2.5), 46.5 SNF
- Dallas (-3.5) at Las Vegas, 49.5 

Also monitor the NFL weather each week along with the injury reports, as more starting quarterbacks are ruled out or remain sidelined with Lamar Jackson and J.J. McCarthy having just returned to action. (Dart - NYG, Stroud - HOU, Daniels - WSH, Purdy - SF, Burrow - CIN, Murray - AZ). Other key injuries to follow along the lines for point of attack play. Snow in Buffalo along with gusting high winds in Buffalo and Cleveland. 

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NFL Week 11 Picks

Picks: Steelers
Opinions: Bears, Titans, Raiders

3-team parlay: Steelers, Falcons, Raiders
2-team 'Dog parlay: Bears, Titans

A majority of the money and betting action comes in on these games over the weekend. But Bears and 'over' money has come in and Rams taking some money now and also the Eagles. 

Also, all the comments and notes above about the mostly clueless pro quarterbacks extends so far to the Titans rookie QB Cam Ward as well. Yet I'm on the Titans this week off their bye week, of course no more than an opinion, with the Titans league-worst offense averaging a dismal 244 ypg and 14.4 points per game. But the the situations and strong angles support the terrible Titans this week against a Texans team off a remakable comeback win over the Jaguars as part of our 2-team 'Dog winner. 

The Week 11 biggest division games this week and some of my insight and analysis can be evaluated in my coverage at BetOnline, along with top offenses. Check back for any additional picks and opinions along with player props. 

- Chicago at Minnesota
- Kansas City at Denver
- Seattle at Los Angeles 

Also, Detroit at Philadelphia. 

More players to watch and stats to know for the Seahawks-Rams first place showdown in my update at BetOnline. 

I've bet against the Steelers, including last week at LA in the Chargers 25-10 win. The Steelers were minus (-3) in the turnover column and the offense gained just 221 yards, but the defense was better holding the Chargers to 4.5 yards per play and 314 yards. But this week they get redemption against the Bengals and their league-worst defense (426 ypg 6.4 yards per play) for the 33-31 Week 7 loss at Cincinnati. The Bengals league-worst 33 points per game defense includes allowing 27 or more points in every game since Week 2 including 37, 39 and 31 to the Steelers the past three weeks. The Bengals 166 yards per game run defense is worst in the league, and on offense the Bengals 18.8 rush attempts and 79 rushing yards per game are both league worst. The Steelers (5-4) have lost 3-of-4 and send their division lead reduced to 1-game over the surging Ravens. Local and national media are bashing the Steelers again, and the Bengals are the right opponent and defense for Pittsburgh to bounce back big at home. 

NFL Player Props 

Check back ahead of Sunday for player props picks and opinions with player props 15-7 since Week 3 posting at OSGA. 

Steelers WR DK Metcalf - Over 52.5 receiving yards

As noted above, the Bengals defense is a sieve at the bottom of league rankings. That includes ranked sixth-worst in team Pro Football Focus (PFF) coverage grade and fifth-worst in team PFF pass-rush grade. Missing All-Pro edge rusher Trey Hendrickson again will impact the Bengals, who allow 7.0 yards per play without him on the field. Hendrickson is among the most valuable defensive players in the league. Cincinnati also allows the sixth-highest rate of open targets to opposing wide receivers and the ninth-highest EPA per play on targets to wide receivers. The Steelers will get their share of rush yards, which will open up more QB Rodgers passing to leading receiver Metcalf. Projections are much stronger than the 3 catches for 50 yards by Metcalf in the 33-31 Week 7 win by the Bengals.

Additional updates, stats and information you can bet on for one of the best cards of the season for NFL Week 11.

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FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.    

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