MNF Preview, Picks And Props Bucs-Lions And Texans-Seahawks

The NFL Week 7 Monday Night Football schedule features two leading NFC contenders as the NFC South first place Buccaners (5-1) battle the Lions (4-2) in Detroit. Buckle up your chinstraps for two top-5 scoring offenses averaging 27.5 (Bucs) and 31.8 (Lions) points per game this season. The nightcap from Seattle has the Seahawks (4-2) tackling the Texans (2-3) in an interconference clash. Seattle needs a win and stay tied for first place in AFC West with Sunday winners Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. A Seahawks win and cover provides us a 3-0 sweep on our Week 7 picks. 

Let's also shoot for a NFL player prop winner after the 12-0 run weeks 3-6 ended Sunday with a pair of losses on player prop pick and opinion. 

Leading online sportsbook BetOnline has the betting data and most supported teams for Monday Night Football after public bettors buried the bookmakers in Sunday Week 7 early games as betting favorites went 7-0 SU/ATS. Late afternoon games saw favorites go 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS grading the 49ers as slight favorite but closing as a 1-point underdog ahead of kickoff in a 20-10 San Francisco win. The Giants easily covered but blew a 26-8 fourth quarter lead with less than six minutes remaining only to retake the lead and then lose it in the closing seconds at Denver, 33-32 in a wild finish.

 

Small winner for the NFL bettors yesterday. Tonight's MNF $$$ so far:

Bucs at Lions
70% DET -6
81% DET -280
70% O 53

Texans at Seahawks
63% SEA -3
68% SEA -175
50% O 41

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) October 20, 2025

NFL Week 7 Monday Night Football Doubleheader

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites. 

- Tampa Bay at Detroit (-6), 53
- Houston at Seattle (-3), 41 

Tampa Bay at Detroit

Both the Bucs (+4) and Lions (+6) have positive turnover margins this season with smart quarterback play. Baker Mayfield (+375) is a leading MVP favorite behind surging Patrick Mahomes (+175) and Josh Allen (+350). Mayfield's 12/1 TD-to-INT ratio is impressive with 5 games throwing for multiple touchdowns. His stats are similar to last year's pace with 1,359 passing yards (256/game) and 7.9 yards per pass. The Bucs and Mayfield betting numbers are impressive too going 16-8 ATS as an underdog with Mayfield starting at quarterback. Mayfield should attack again despite continuing to miss wide receivers as injuries mount to the Bucs with RB Bucky Irving also out. The Lions secondary is hurting with three defensive backs out plus the game suspension of CB Brian Branch. 

The Bucs beat the Lions at Ford Field last season, winning 20-16 as 7.5-point underdogs. Misleading final as the Lions out-gained the Bucs 464-216, including 139-70 rushing, but failed SU/ATS. Two INT's by Goff and too many pass attempts (55) as the game script was turned. 

The Lions had their 4-game winning streak snapped last week in a 30-17 loss at Kansas City. Injuries are clearly impacing this contest, and I only Lean the Bucs way with a higher scoring result and better opportunities post flop with in-play live betting. 

Sharp Football and other stats include: 

- Detroit games are averaging 55.5 combined points per game (3rd in NFL).
- Tampa Bay games are averaging 52.7 combined points per game (6th), and four straight Bucs games have gone over the game total.
- Tampa Bay is third in the NFL in EPA as a passing offense (64.2), and 5-1 in games they have trailed this season.
- Detroit is fifth in the league in EPA as a passing offense (56.7).
- The Buccaneers are allowing 6.1 yards per play on early downs, which ranks 30th in the league.
- The Lions average 6.2 yards per play on early downs, third in the league.
- Lions QB Jared Goff has used play action on 30.5% of his dropbacks, fourth in the league.
- The Bucs have allowed a 75% completion rate (28th), 11.2 yards per pass attempt (31st), and an 8.3% touchdown rate (24th) on play-action passes. 

Houston at Seattle 

Houston enters off a bye and I had targeted WR Nico Collins for this contest as a potential player prop. Seahawks QB Sam Darnold continues his strong play with his new team, and he's currently Pro Football Focus' highest-rated passer. He'll be tested more in this matchup, but Darnold has been so efficient while throwing for least 8.9 yards per pass attempt in each of his past five games, and 9.6 Y/A overall to lead the league. Here's more on the Seahawks offensive system designed by OC Klint Kubiak and Texans coach DeMeco Ryans explaining more and trying to defend. The Texans yards-per-play defense and pressure rate is top-5 in the NFL, and will be Darnold's toughest test thus far in 2025. Stronger special teams are in play for both teams and could impact field position and scoring. 

Pick: Seattle, I played the Seahawks (-3) but there are some stronger strength vs. strength matchups in this MNF contest. 

Advanced Stats

- Seattle is 7th in EPA as a passing offense (51.8).
- Seattle is 30th in EPA as a rushing offense (-30.3).
- Seattle leads the league in the rate of plays to gain 10 or more yards (24.7%) and 20 or more yards (8.8%).
- Seattle is averaging a league-high 3.1 more yards per passing play than their opponents.
- Houston has a 61.2% success rate as a pass defense, fourth in the league.
- Houston has a 58.7% success rate on passing plays in their past two games (third in the league) after a 35.1% rate over their opening three games (last in the league).
- The Texans are 30th in success rate on rushing plays (35.3%).
- The Texans have allowed a league-low 1.17 points per drive.
- Seattle is allowing 1.75 points per drive, 5th in the league. 

Player Props 

12-0 run on player props, opinions and recommendations in weeks 3-6, but now 12-2 after a pair of losers Sunday with backup Rams RB stealing carries and yards in second-half of one-sided Rams win in London.

Texans WR Nico Collins - Over 5.5 receptions (+112) 

Houston has incorporated more pre-snap motion and play-action passing into the offense, and QB Stroud should target WR Nico Collins, the teams top receiver with 22 receptions for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns. In tight games in Week 2 and Week 3, Collins had 39.1% and 30.6% of the targets while being targeted 9 and 11 times by Stroud. His runout was limited the last two games in one-sided wins, but Collins has upside in this matchup with Seahawks secondary injuries, coverage and ranking 29th in points allowed to opposing WR1 targets (18.7). Over the past three games, the Seahawks have allowed stronger outings to Marvin Harrison Jr. (6-66-1), Emeka Egbuka (7-163-1), and Brian Thomas (8-90-1). Off the bye, I like Collins to be a key target of Stroud, and especially with WR Kirk out (hamstring). Receptions preferred over Collins receiving yards (73.5) but okay to play over yards too if you like for reduced units under 0.5, and a smaller play on 7+ receptions (+198) at 2/1. Collins' is +150 to score a touchdown, and the Seahawks defense has also allowed multiple passing touchdowns in each of the past three games with their secondary decimated last game and strong safety and nickle back are out for this contest. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.