Three top picks for Week 6 NFL betting

The 2020 NFL season continues to throw some curveballs. Last week, the Denver-New England game scheduled for NFL Week 5 was moved to later in the season due to positive coronavirus tests. 

Buffalo and Tennessee, which was off in Week 4, finally played on Tuesday night. What will Week 6 bring?

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Hopefully, this week in the NFL brings some wins and adds to your bankroll. Here's a look at some of the best bets in Week 6.

Atlanta at Minnesota (-3.5)

Even though Dan Quinn was fired last week after Atlanta opened the 2020 season 0-5, this is still a Quinn-Falcons team. Because it is still very much a Quinn team, it makes these numbers still valid.

Falcons opponents are 48-37 ATS in Quinn’s five-plus years. If you take out the Kyle Shanahan year as the offensive coordinator in Atlanta, that ATS record really jumps out - 42-27.

Now, consider Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer. He’s a defensive guy and his Vikings teams have reflected that. He likes the offense based around the running game and he doesn’t take a lot of risks.

As a result, under Zimmer the Vikings are 63-37-1 ATS in the regular season. Breaking that down even further, we see Minnesota is 30-16-1 ATS at home and 45-18-1 ATS outside of their division under Zimmer.

We'll add in the Vikings 19-4-1 ATS record when Minnesota is a favorite in a non-divisional game. The result is, of course, a no-brainer pick in favor of the Vikings covering at home against Atlanta on Sunday.

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Green Bay (-1.5) at Tampa Bay

It’s a Tom Brady/Aaron Rodgers matchup. For Brady, he’s still getting adjusted to Tampa Bay, while Rodgers is on fire early in 2020. Both of these teams are ones to consider when looking at Super Bowl LV futures betting.

Rodgers is completing 70.5 percent of his passes. He's thrown for 1,214 yards, 13 touchdowns, and has yet to throw an interception. 

What should scare Tampa Bay though is Rodgers' record after an extended rest period. Since his very first season as the Packers starter in 2008, Rodgers is the most profitable quarterback coming off an extra week of rest. The Green Bay leader is 8-2-1 ATS after a bye.

For the season, Green Bay is 4-0 and 4-0 ATS. Rodgers is third in the league in passing yards per game and RB Aaron Jones is third in rushing yards per game. The Packers lead the NFL in scoring averaging 38 points per game.

You have to love Green Bay -1.5 in this one even though they are on the road. Rodgers is 113-78-5 ATS for his career. He's worth backing again this week.

L.A. Rams (-3) at San Francisco

The 49ers are hurting. Injuries have decimated a roster that was supposed to compete for a second straight NFC title. The Niners have three defensive ends on injured reserve as well as DT Solomon Thomas and CBs Richard Sherman and K’Waun Williams.

49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo was benched last week after a poor first half. The Rams defense comes in leading the NFL in sacks with 20. The Rams are also in the top ten in most other major defensive statistical categories.

What really stands out though is the ATS record of opponents against 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan when he's at home at Levi’s Stadium. Opponents are 17-9-1 ATS.

Add in Rams head coach Sean McVay's 11-6-1 ATS record against divisional opponents and you can see where this is headed. Take the Rams to cover.