Three top picks for Week 5 NFL betting

It's another week full of interesting matchups in the NFL. Week 4 gave us a rare Monday night doubleheader and while Week 5 might not give us that, it gives bettors some pockets of value. 

Here's a look at the NFL Week 5 best bets.

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Carolina (+2.5) at Atlanta

The Falcons were going to surprise the NFL after back-to-back 7-9 seasons and plenty of underachieving. Surprise! Atlanta is 0-4!

Atlanta gives up almost 450 yards of offense and 34.5 points per game. Somehow, the Falcons opened as a 3.5-point favorite. The line has since dropped to -2.5.

That is exactly the kind of value bettors are searching for. Consider Atlanta's ATS record with Dan Quinn as the Falcons head coach. Opponents are 46-37 ATS in Quinn's five-plus years at the helm of the franchise.

What's even more interesting is that if you take out the 2016 season when Quinn had current San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan running the Falcons offense, the opponent record ATS is an even more impressive 40-27.

How about underdog opponents against Quinn? Yep, 33-18 ATS.

Carolina is a dog bettors just can't pass up. Before moving on to my other picks, take a look at last week's NFL Week 4 best bets, when we went 2-1.

Buffalo (-1) at Tennessee 

Here’s what we know. The Bills are legit. The Titans . . . not so much.

Tennessee's three wins are over teams with a combined 3-9 record thus far. The Titans won those three games by a combined six points and needed a field goal in the final two minutes of each game to secure a victory.

Then, a bunch of players and staff tested positive for the coronavirus last week. That resulted in their game against Pittsburgh being cancelled. That might have been for the best.

The key is Bills QB Josh Allen. The third-year pro is a rising star. Even better, in 15 starts on the road in his young career, Allen is 10-3-2 ATS.

Bettors could probably take this bet at -3. At -1, it's a definite.

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Miami (+8) at San Francisco

When it rains, it pours. The 49ers already lost DE Joey Bosa and DT Solomon Thomas for the 2020 season. San Francisco brought in veteran pass rusher Ziggy Ansah who promptly tore a biceps in Week 4 and is also done for the year.

To make matters worse, the Niners lost at home last week to Philadelphia 25-20. With QB Jimmy Garoppolo out, backup Nick Mullens threw one of the worst interceptions of the season virtually handing the ball to Eagles LB Alex Singleton who returned the gift 30 yards for a touchdown that essentially sealed the game for Philly.

The Dolphins are still just a can of lighter fluid away from a dumpster fire, but they are a respectable 10-7 ATS in QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s last 17 starts dating back to last season. 

What’s really interesting here is 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan’s record when laying points at home. Road dogs playing at Levi’s Stadium are 10-3-1 ATS versus the Shanahan-coached 49ers. 

That tips the scales in Miami’s direction as San Francisco will need to win by two scores to cover this one.

Need another free pick? Here’s a pick and prediction for Raiders at Chiefs.