NFL Upset Pick of the Week: Saints Over Titans



A look at the Saints/Titans game with insights as to why New Orleans can pull off the upset.

Preview and Picks for Saints at Titans

NFL Week 9 featured a ton of upsets. Half of the league's division leaders all took losses.

Now, Week 10 is off to a hot start for the underdogs, as the Miami Dolphins spoiled Lamar Jackson's homecoming by beating his Ravens 22-10. 

It will be tough to live up to these underdogs, but a glimpse of the Vegas' NFL odds shows we have quite a healthy dog selection. For this week, we're leaning on a team that has been unbeaten as one so far this season.

Upset of the Week: New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans

The Saints roll into Tennessee looking for another upset win but one against a team that is the hottest in the NFL right now. New Orleans is 3-1 on the road and is winning despite losing quarterback Jameis Winston, along with plenty of other bodies. Tennessee is coming off a huge win over the Los Angeles Rams and could be in for a letdown game here.

The Favorite: Tennessee Titans (7-2, 7-2 ATS)
Spread: -3 EV
Moneyline: -145
Team Total: 23½ -115o/-115u

Why They Are The Favorites

Titans Satins free pickThe better question is, why aren't the Titans even bigger favorites on the NFL betting lines? They’ve won five straight games, beating the likes of the Rams, Chiefs and Bills in this span. Tennessee's win over the Rams (28-16) came despite missing Derrick Henry and getting nothing from its running game. 

The Titans are 3-1 at home and have dominated the turnover battle, winning in each of their last six games by forcing 11 and conceding only five. The Titans embarrassed Matthew Stafford as they picked him off twice, and used those interceptions to hand the Rams their second loss.  

Why They Could Lose

With the exception of Week 1, the Titans seem to be that NFL team that plays to its level of competition. Tennessee has beaten Super Bowl contenders like the Rams and Bills, but then lost to the Jets. Their only two losses came as they boasted favorite moneyline odds. 

Tennessee has pounced on opportunistic turnovers to beat the likes of the Rams and Colts. But this team’s offense will struggle without Henry and the defense has given up over 30 points in three of their seven wins. As a team that depends on capitalizing on turnovers, the Titans could get plucked by any opponent that turns the tables on them and exposes their lackluster offense.  

The Underdog: New Orleans Saints (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
Spread: +3 -120
Moneyline: +125
Team Total: 20½ -115o/-115u 

Why They Are The Underdogs

The Saints have been decimated by injuries and are dependent on Trevor Siemian and his career passer rating of 80.4. The 30-year-old has done well enough for New Orleans, as he almost led them to a victory over the Falcons. Almost was cold comfort for Saints’ backers who laid 6½ points in that contest.

Saints upset betting tipsBut as a team, New Orleans has been frustrating to predict as far as their NFL scores and odds are concerned. This team has won as underdogs and lost as favorites. It will lay an egg against the Giants, then put up 36 points to beat the Buccaneers. New Orleans still has a solid defense, even if injuries have taken it down a notch.

Why They Could Win

New Orleans is 3-0 as an underdog this season and is 3-0 against the teams with winning records. If they continue with this trend, then the Titans are next on their hit list. It’s tough to back a guy like Siemian, but Sean Payton has made almost every quarterback he’s coached play to a level higher than which they’re accustomed.

This team has also been great at winning the turnover battle. The turnover machine that was Jameis Winston turned the ball over just four times while throwing for 14 touchdowns. New Orleans has a +6 differential in turnover and is +9 against the three favorites they took down. 

Turnover Upset Special

The magic word here is "turnovers". As if we hadn't alluded to this enough, the team that wins the turnover battle here takes the W. You could say this for most NFL games, but it’s more applicable to these squads that have lived and died on their ability to gain a leg-up by converting their opponent’s mistakes to points. 

In this case, the Saints should have an edge. Ryan Tannehill has coughed up the ball 11 times, thanks in part to a shoddy offensive line that has gotten him sacked 27 times. The Saints have a better line and a defense that is just as pick-happy so they come out on top here.

Pick: New Orleans Saints +125 


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