CAROLINA PANTHERS

NFL Futures Odds :

To Win Super Bowl +15000 (150-1)
To Win NFC Championship +8000
To Win NFC South +425
Regular Season Wins -- Over 6.5 Wins -145, Under 6.5 Wins +115
To Make Playoffs -- No -325, Yes +250

I don't think it's unfair to say that Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper is one of those "quick to hire, quick to fire" guys. Some of this is about chasing his selection of Bryce Young with the #1 pick in the draft a couple of years ago (maligned by some). If Young fails, the coach is going to wind up failing. If Young succeeds, this franchise will experience a renaissance.

And it needs one. The Panthers haven't been to the playoffs since the 2017 season. Then Tepper bought the team, and Carolina has not seen the postseason since.

During Tepper's ownership reign, the Panthers have had four "permanent" head coaches; we put that in quotes because the word "permanent" as it applies to head coaches means very little in the NFL, and even less around Charlotte.

Dave Canales was a long-time assistant to Pete Carroll in Seattle (13 seasons, in fact). But he was brought into the head coaching job prior to last season primarily because of his work reviving Baker Mayfield as the offensive coordinator at Tampa Bay under Todd Bowles. From that standpoint, his hiring made sense because Young, the Heisman Trophy winner out of Alabama, appeared to be in need of a quarterback "guru." And Canales was considered the flavor of the month among assistants, even though that characterization was probably unfair.

What is the status of "franchise" quarterback Bryce Young?

In the first two games of the 2024 season, Young threw three interceptions without a touchdown and the Panthers scored 13 points. Then Canales then benched him, presumably with the intention of administering a wake-up call and putting him back in the lineup later.

He sat out five games while grizzled veteran Andy Dalton took over. After a "rebound" effect that brought Carolina to victory against a Raider team that also had quarterback problems, there were four straight losses and a minus-87 point differential. The call went out to Young, who returned to the lineup and, by all accounts, became a different quarterback.

His next four starts produced almost 62% passing and only six sacks. Most importantly, as far as Panther backers were concerned, was that they won two games, although those came against the lowly Saints and Giants.

Young's last three outings of the season produced his three best quarterback ratings, as well as a 7-0 ratio of TD's to interceptions. Against Atlanta in the season finale he threw for 251 yards and three scores, It has been pointed out that over the last ten games, he made 26 "big-time throws,"

Let's allow Pro Football Focus, the NFL's go-to analytics site, to supply their own definition of a big-time throw:

"A big-time throw is a high-difficulty, high-value pass. They are characterized by excellent ball placement and timing, typically on deeper passes or into tight windows. These throws can also occur under challenging conditions, such as when a quarterback is under heavy pressure but converts a potential negative into a positive play. "

From the time Young came back to the lineup, there was only one QB in the league who made more big-time throws than Young during that period. His Intended Air yards (IAY) per attempt was fifth highest in the NFL (8.6), which means that, by and large, he wasn't running a dink-and-dunk offense.

So as you can imagine, that presents some hope.

And how did Carolina help Young in the off-season?

The Panthers had a lot of needs, but spent their first-round draft pick trying to help Young. With that #8 overall selection, they grabbed Tetairoa McMillan of Arizona, who produced over 2700 yards in his last two collegiate seasons. What T-Mac brings to the table is a guy who can stretch a defense, and, at 6'4-1/2", can beat a lot of cornerbacks on jump balls.

The Carolina receiver room has been a little thin, and we're not completely certain whether McMillan will become the #1 option right away. But Xavier Legette is coming off a disappointing rookie season. Adam Thielen, who made a couple of Pro Bowl teams some years ago, is 34 and slowing a bit. Jalen Coker, an undrafted surprise out of Holy Cross, averaged almost 15 yards a catch and may be Young's kind of receiver. Hunter Renfrow could potentially help, but his participation is in question. He sat out last season with ulcerative colitis, and bouncing back into game shape may take some time.

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They want to run, and they will

We have to admit that Chuba Hubbard, who was such a stud at Oklahoma State before he started trouble for coach Mike Gundy and got shunned, is establishing himself as an NFL running back, exceeding 1000 yards on 4.8 per carry. Jonathan Brooks, a second-round pick last year, has torn his ACL twice and won't see action this season.

So the Panthers signed Rico Dowdle, who was a 1000-yard rusher in Dallas, and drafted Trevor Etienne out of Georgia, and the running back room has enough people in it.

The Panthers' defense was a disaster area - so what did they do about it?

Well, they like to think they upgraded it, but when you're ranked 32nd in defense overall, 32nd against the run, allowing 5.2 yards per carry, and surrendered 35 TD passes, there is nowhere to go BUT up.

The bright spot, Pro Bowl corner Jaycee Horn, signed a four-year contract extension that made him the highest-paid defensive back ever (for the time being).

Defensive end Derrick Brown, a Pro Bowl performer who tore a meniscus in the first game and never saw action again, is returning.

Free agent Tre'von Moehrig, known as a formidable tackler, comes over from Las Vegas.

Defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton, who has upside, left the Chiefs to sign for $54 million over three years.

Pat Jones II, a linebacker who gets pressure on passers, came as a free agent from Minnesota.

The team also went for defense in the draft. In the second and third rounds, respectively, they picked up edge rushers Nic Scourton of Texas A&M and Princely Umanmielen of Ole Miss. And they put a big body in the middle of their 3-4 defensive alignment with nose tackle Cam Jackson of Florida.

General manager Dan Morgan was once a Pro Bowl linebacker with the Panthers, and he has had it in mind to remake this defense. But with a relatively thin secondary and a linebacking corps that lost Shaq Thompson to Buffalo, could this be considered more than a work in progress?

Carolina Panthers 2025 Prediction

Seriously, in this division, arguably league's weakest, Carolina has a chance to contend. That's because the Saints are likely to have a messy QB situation, the Falcons are going with a developing guy in Michael Penix, and there's nothing necessarily indestructible about the Tampa Bay Bucs.

But the Panthers have to get something real in the way of improvement on the part of this defense, find a #1 receiver, who they hope is McMillan, and get some genuine confidence behind center from Young, who still has to prove to many that he isn't too small to play the role of a dropback passer.

They also have to beat those teams that are "beatable." Remember that with the horrible stop unit last year, they still won five times. Would I lay -145 that they'll get to seven? Maybe, but I wouldn't get too steep with it.


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