NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

NFL Futures Odds

To Win Super Bowl  +20000 (200-1)
To Win NFC Championship  +8000
To Win NFC South  +650
Regular Season Wins -- Over 5.5 wins +115, Under 5.5 -145

To say that the 2024 NFL season took a horrific turn for the New Orleans Saints would be a vast understatement. 

They started things out like a house afire, scoring 91 points in the first two games, which included a 44-19 romp over the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, which had a lot of teams taking the Fleur de Lis seriously. 

But then came one calamity after another, and over the next six games, this team scored only 94 points. After nine games, head coach Dennis Allen was fired, and while interim coach Darren Rizzi chalked up wins in his first two games, any momentum was lost after the bye week, as they scored just 76 points in their last six contests. 

The end result was a 5-12 season, and a search for a new head coach. And in the NFL you're not going to have a lot of trouble finding willing applicants.

In their case it was Kellen Moore, who through three stops as an offensive coordinator established a reputation as a sharp mind and legitimate head coaching candidate. It also didn't hurt him too much that his last assignment was in Philadelphia, where he won a Super Bowl ring.

The Carr broke down 

Derek Carr missed seven games last season with a hand injury and / or concussion problems, during which time the Saints had to insert inexperienced signal-callers into the lineup. Initially, Carr was expected to come back for the team in 2025. 

But lingering shoulder problems put his return very much in doubt. There were decisions that had to be made, and one of those involved a possible overture to Aaron Rodgers if Carr was not going to be able to play in '25. Finally, Carr decided to retire altogether, although it was rumored that his agent was trying to negotiate with other teams to get him out of New Orleans. 

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What will the guru do? 

This situation might leave Moore, a notable tutor of quarterbacks (and a former QB in the league), in a precarious position. The Saints turned to Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener last year,  they completed a combined 55% of their passes for 5.8 yards an attempt. That's the kind of thing that doesn't scare enemy defenses one bit.

As of now, both Rattler and Haener are on the Saints' depth chart.

But topping that depth chart now is second-round draft pick Tyler Shough (pronounced Shuck), who spent SEVEN years in college football and comes into the NFL at the age of 26. 

Shough is a curious case. He's been riddled with injuries throughout his college career, but when he got a chance to string together a full aeason at Louisville last year, he threw for 3195 yards and 23 TD's (just eight INT's). He has NFL size (6'5"), with a quick release. At the beginning of this process, he was considered a late-round pick or even an undrafted free agent. But he impressed at the combine, the Senior Bowl and his pro day, and rose quickly up everybody's draft board. 

There's not a lot of doubt as to whether he can function in the short passing game, although his ability to hit longer throws with consistency is something of a question.

And speaking of questions, there were still some about this QB situation as of this writing. Would the Saints seek some veteran help, perhaps in the form of Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Pickett or maybe even Carson Wentz? 

As of this writing, they haven't reached out in that direction, and when you think about it, maybe a team like this doesn't draft someone in the second round if their intention isn't to have him starting, perhaps from Day One. 

Can the Saints keep the score down? 

When you look at the numbers, the defense was maybe just as big a problem as the offense in 2024. Among the lowlights, New Orleans surrendered more total yards than all but two teams, and they also yielded 4.9 yards per rushing attempts, which simply allows the opposition to control the ball and run clock. 

Moore has brought Brandon Staley to the Big Easy as defensive coordinator. Staley may have been a washout as a head coach with the Chargers, but he has a very good reputation running defenses. 

He made a very big impression on the Rams in the season he was there, as the team finished #1 in total defense, scoring defense, passing yards and TD's allowed, and was third against the run. After he was fired by the Bolts, he spent last season as an assistant head coach in San Francisco. 

He's installing a 3-4 base front, which will demand some flexibility on the part of the defensive linemen, and he is committed to stopping explosive plays. In case you're wondering, yes, that will put some pressure on the stop unit when it comes to slowing down the rush.

The Saints added a few notable parts to the defense. Two of them are defensive end Jonah Williams and safety Justin Reid, who went to two Super Bowls as a starter in Kansas City. Reid graded out as the tenth best safety in the NFL last year according to the analytics site Pro Football Focus. Then there's Davon Godchaux, who has experience with both Miami and New England. 

Vernon Broughton is an important addition, having come out of Texas with a third-round draft pick. He has the ability to play either defensive tackle or defensive end in Staley's setup, so he has a shot to get a lot of playing time.

Who will help the QB?

We're not sure how much mileage Alvin Kamara has left in him, although he did run for a career high in rushing yards in 2024 (950), despite missing the last three games of the season with a groin issue. 

There are targets available for whoever winds up as the quarterback. Chris Olave (who missed a lot of time with concussion issues last year) topped 1000 yards in each of his first two seasons. Rashid Shaheed is an All-Pro kick returner who averaged 17.5 yards a catch before going down with a knee injury. Brandin Cooks has had seven seasons over 1000 yards, but after knee issues of his own he is trying to make a comeback. 

On the offensive line, the focus will be squarely on Kelvin Banks Jr., the first-round pick out of Texas who is expected to take command at left tackle. The importance of his contribution can not be understated, as he is going to be protecting a young, inexperienced quarterback. His presence will allow the team to have Trevor Penning at guard, where he works out better. 

Are the Saints positioning themselves for next year's draft? 

There are some who would suggest that the Saints (or at least their management) may "tank" this season in order to put themselves in the best possible draft position. We're not sure there's any truth to that, but if that's their intention, and they succeed, there is potential a beneficial prize in the end.

First of all, there's Arch Manning, who from one perspective can be an ideal fit, considering that he is the grandson of one of the true legends and fan favorites of the franchise, Archie Manning. He was the top quarterback coming out of high school, and everyone in anxiously awaiting him taking over the Longhorn offense. 

The problem is that he hasn't been the full-time starter yet. He sat behind Quinn Ewers (a seventh-round pick of Miami in the draft) for two seasons. He did get some playing time last year, throwing nine TD passes with two interceptions. 

Manning could re-energize this franchise, but there are obvious questions. One of those is that no one is sure how good he really is yet. Her hasn't gone through a whole season yet in the ultra-competitive SEC. 

There is also no guarantee that he will be coming out for the NFL after this season. How much success he has will go a long way toward dictating that. The emergence of NIL deals has also altered the dynamic surrounding athletes and declaring early for the draft. So Manning isn't hurting for cash.

There is another SEC quarterback who could be the consolation prize OR the grand prize. Garrett Nussmeier of LSU threw for 4043 yards and 29 touchdowns in his first full season as a starter, and his arm and awareness have impressed just about everyone. That includes Todd McShay, the former ESPN draft maven who projects him as the #1 pick in the next draft.

As an added attraction, he is the son of former NFL quarterback Doug Nussmeier, who was hired by Kellen Moore as the Saints' offensive coordinator. 

As you can imagine, this team (or at least the guys upstairs) shouldn't be the slightest bit crestfallen if this team loses a lot on the field, while planning for the future.

We acknowledge that one thing in New Orleans' favor is that they are in a division that might be the worst in the NFL. But the way we look at it, working with inexperience at quarterback will slow down the attack, sending us to the "under" side of the 5.5 total wins prop, even at the price of -145. 

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