MINNESOTA VIKINGS

NFL Betting Odds:

To Win Super Bowl +2200
To Win NFC Championship +1200
To Win NFC North +265
Regular Season Wins -- Over 8.5 Wins -165, Under 8.5 Wins +135
To Make Playoffs -- Yes -115, No -115

When the Minnesota Vikings took Michigan's JJ McCarthy in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, there were a couple of things they hadn't figured on.

(1) That McCarthy would suffer a knee injury, blowing his entire rookie season, and . . . 

(2) That Sam Darnold would have such a fantastic season as the starter.

All of this created a situation that put them in a kind of limbo. Darnold threw for 4319 yards and 35 touchdowns, before melting down a little in the playoffs. He was named to the Pro Bowl games, but he was also a free agent.

And undoubtedly he was going to ask for a ton of money, right?

Right.

The Vikings could have opened up the pocketbook and signed Darnold. But that's a commitment, and they already made a commitment to their young "quarterback of the future."

So now, after a 14-3 regular season, they are faced with a season in which they might have to encounter some growing pains along with their quarterback.

First order of business - offensive line 

To be fair, the playoff meltdown has to be attributed, for the most part, to an offensive line that allowed the Los Angeles Rams to sack Darnold nine times in an embarrassing 27-9 defeat.

That was a focus of this team's concentration during the off-season. And unlike other teams who have given lip service to this kind of thing, they went after it with an uber-aggressive attitude.

They shelled out over $100 million to sign Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly and guard Will Fries, who were with the Colts last year. And with their first-round draft pick, they took guard Donovan Jackson of Ohio State. Minnesota is fortunate to have two very good offensive tackles already - Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill - so let's go ahead and make the assumption that McCarthy is going to be better protected than Darnold.

McCarthy has enough to work with

A young quarterback's best friend is a good running game, and the Vikings have a chance to have one. Aaron Jones has always been reliable, and last season was no exception, as he rambled for 1138 yards (4.5 per rush). The Vikes traded for Jordan Mason, who had an impressive season in San Francisco trying to pick up the slack for the absence of Christian McCaffrey. Mason averaged 5.2 yards per carry on his way to 789 yards.

And with these additions to the interior of the offensive line, Minnesota should be able to run the ball pretty well.

Okay, we'll concede that receivers can be a pretty good friend to a young quarterback as well, especially when one of them is the best in the business.

Justin Jefferson has been a dominant pass-catcher since coming into the NFL, with career highs of 128 receptions and 1809 yards in 2022. Last year he didn't hit those figures, but his 103 grabs for 1533 yards was good enough to land him on the All-Pro team for the fourth time.

Jordan Addison, who won the Biletnikoff Award (nation's outstanding receiver) when he played for the Pitt Panthers, has been a good sidekick for Jefferson in his two years in the NFL, with 1786 yards over his first two seasons. At the moment he is facing a drunk driving charge that could affect his season. There are others who can split out wide. Jalen Nailor has averaged 15.6 yards per catch over his short career, and free agent signee Rondale Moore, who missed last season with a knee injury but still may have something to give.

The Vikings made Tai Felton their third-round draft pick. At Maryland last year, he caught 96 passes and was first team All-Big 10. He runs a sub-4.4 in the 40-yard dash, and should be someone they can get to stretch things ouit and take advantage of all the attention paid to Jefferson.

Then there's TJ Hockenson, who has been one of the better tight ends in the NFL when healthy (two Pro Bowls). He played only ten games last year and caught 41 passes. At times he has been praised for his blocking ability. Daniel Jeremiah, a draft analyst for ESPN, called him "the best blocking tight end I've ever evaluated."

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Key for the defense is no secret - pressure

Minnesota still has a lot of nasty people on defense, and Brian Flores remains as the coordinator.

The stop unit registered some very good numbers last season. They allowed a lot of passing yards (ranking 28th in the league) but intercepted 24 passes (nobody had more).

Minnesota yielded just 4.1 yards per rush, which was fourth best in the league. And the passing-against stats were a bit deceiving, in the sense that they were eleventh best in yards per attempt allowed, and opponents threw the ball 63.3% of the time, which was the NFL's highest percentage. Of course, there may have been something of a "funnel" effect, because they gave up 93.4 yards per game, which is #2 in the NFL.

With 49 sacks, the Vikings are one of the best pass rushing teams in the league, and it may get even better this year with some new, veteran arrivals.

Joining edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel (who combined for 23.5 sacks) and second-year man Dallas Turner, veterans Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen are expected to bring pressure from the inside.

The Vikings caused a lot of turnovers last season. But pressure on quarterbacks had better come, because this secondary comes into the season needing help. Pro Football Focus ranks the Minnesota secondary 27th in the league. There arte standouts, to be sure. Harrison Smith may still be one of the best safeties in the game. Byron Murphy Jr. went to the Pro Bowl last year. Flores expects Isaiah Rodgers, with the Eagles last season, to rise to a new level.

2025 Minnesota Vikings Prediction

The NFC North is a very interesting proposition. The Detroit Lions are obviously the favorites. Everybody renders respect to the Green Bay Packers. And the Chicago Bears have the new "guru" (Ben Johnson) at the helm and some significant personnel changes.

So the Vikings, who were 14-3 last season and could have captured the NFC's #1 seed had they been able to beat Detroit in the regular season finale, might conceivably find themselves in last place.

That wouldn't happen because they regressed, but because they are going into the campaign with a somewhat unknown quantity at quarterback. One thing to keep in mind about McCarthy's absence in 2024 is that he got to learn the offense. He had a record of 27-1 as a starter at Michigan and completed 72% of his passes in the championship season. If he's ready, this team can go a long way. If not, this will look like a "rebuilding" year.

Personally, I like Kevin O'Connell as a head coach and Flores in his role as an assistant. I think they'll get the most out of what they have. So even though they may not be able to surpass the Lions for division supremacy, I can easily see them with a winning record. So the "Over 8.5 Wins" makes sense at -165.

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