NFL Props Betting -- The Case For Case? And More

  • In Charles Jay
  • Thu, Oct 21st, 2021 1:09:15 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA

Case Keenum has a lot of experience to take into his assignment as QB for the Cleveland Browns on Thursday against the Denver Broncos.

As you probably know by now, BetOnline has a truckload of NFL props for you to bet on every week, and they make a game like Thursday's encounter between the Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos all the more enjoyable.

We'll examine some of those props, centering around the performance of Case Keenum, who has been tabbed to step in at QB for the Browns with Baker Mayfield injured.

Case Keenum - Pass Completions

Over 18.5 Completions -130
Under 18.5 Completions +100

Keenum has been a starting quarterback in the NFL; in fact, he has started games for six different teams, including Denver. His career completion percentage is 62.3%, but he has been more of the low-risk variety, averaging only 6.9 yards an attempt.

His best season was in 2017, when he took the reins in Minnesota and threw for 3547 yards, with a nice 22-7 touchdown-interception ratio. The Vikings got to the NFC title game. If you recall, he threw the "miracle" TD pass to Stefon Diggs to beat New Orleans in most improbable fashion. But he faltered against the Philadelphia Eagles, as he was 28 of 48 and was intercepted twice.

It would be nice if Keenum could get a robust running game together. But the chances of that are kind of slim. The Browns, who have rushed for more yards this season than any other team, showed how vulnerable they can be after Nick Chubb went down with an injury. With Kareem Hunt asked to handle more of a load, they were limited to 73 yards on 19 attempts against Arizona. And now Hunt is out, as is Jack Conklin, who as right tackle would have extensive run game responsibilities.

D'Ernest Johnson will be the primary back on Thursday night. He has carried the ball three times thus far. last year he did have a game where he ran for 95 yards against Dallas. Since it is in Cleveland's nature to at least try to run, and Johnson is by far the best option they have, we'd go "over" 15.5 carries here (priced at +100, or even money). Whether that succeeds or not is another question, because Denver may put almost everybody in the box and force Keenum to put the ball in the air.

And you know what? Even if Odell Beckham (who has what is termed a "significant shoulder injury") can't play, Keenum may have something going for him in the respect that he is not one of those quarterbacks who gets sacked all the time. You can count on him to get rid of the ball quickly, and maybe that bodes well for somebody like Austin Hooper, the tight end whose over-under for receiving yards is 20.5. In fact, we'd drift toward the "over" on him, and maybe even his colleague, David Njoku, who is also at 20.5. There are going to be some short passes.

Our conclusion here is that Keenum is not going to do anything spectacular. But he's going to try to compensate for the absence of a formidable running game with a lot of passes of the "short" variety. So he's not going to kill the Broncos by taking shots downfield, but he's going to seek out people on shorter routes. We don't know if that gets him over the posted total of 217.5 yards, but he'll attempt some volume - and more and more if Denver takes the run away. But speaking of "run away," the Broncos are not likely to do that, so expect at least some kind of balance.

We are "over" on the completions, but not necessarily the yardage.

Get your fill of props on Thursday night, and all the NFL games, at BetOnline. And make your deposits using cryptocurrency -it's the easiest way to do business, and theer are plenty of options!

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