NFL Week 2 preseason betting tips and winning angles
Like many sports contests, motivation can play a big part. That certainly applies in the NFL and preseason football. With just three preseason games now, coaches get less time to look at players who may be fighting to make the roster or add depth to positions of need.
While preseason games are meaningless from a win/loss standpoint, there are still some coaches more motivated to win and historical records add to the point. Last week, the Baltimore Ravens won another preseason, which runs head coach John Harbaugh's preseason record in August to 38-12 SU and 35-15 ATS. Included is the current run of 18-0 SU and 17-1 ATS (plus a push) in NFL-X games, and now a record of 13-1 SU in his first NFL-X game of August. Of course the Ravens (-3.5) are laying good chalk on the road in Week 2 at Carolina.
NFL Week 2 Games and Odds
Over the past few days, here are the Week 2 preseason line moves at BetOnline.
* New England (-1.5) at Philadelphia - was Patriots -2
* Kansas City (-2) at Arizona - was Chiefs -2.5
* Buffalo at Chicago (-3.5) - was Bears -4.5 and total down slightly to 38
* New York Jets (-2.5) at Green Bay - was Jets -2
* Tennessee at Tampa Bay (-1) - was Buccaneers -2
* Las Vegas (-6.5) at LA Rams - was Raiders -7
* Denver (-5) at Seattle - was Broncos -6 and total up slightly to 37.5
* San Francisco (-5.5) at LA Chargers - was 49ers -4.5
Additional games with no line movement
* Cincinnati at Washington (-4.5)
* Atlanta at Miami (-5)
* Baltimore (-3.5) at Carolina
* Detroit at Pittsburgh (-5.5)
* Houston at Dallas (-4)
* Indianapolis at Minnesota (-2.5)
* New York Giants at Cleveland (-5.5)
* Jacksonville at New Orleans (-4)
NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Situations
The second full week of the preseason offers a good opportunity to cash in based on some more recent historical situations that make sense based on motivation factors.
Two prominent handicappers have annually updated some more useful situations, and noted systems that have won at a higher rate. I'm chipping in some of the data and insight from Dr. Bob Sports and Marc Lawrence from his Playbook newsletter. Those two longtime handicappers update a database annually and throughout each season that they formed with a select dozen or so handicappers from a few decades ago. They add some of their their own situational profiles to more meaningful situations or trends that make sense. These go beyond what you may find or see through sports data base and information researched and published from Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) which other handicappers use.
It's best to use some of the data and situations in conjunction with researching teams, rosters, quarterback rotations and following beat writers for more insight on the teams. That applies throughout the regular season, but in preseason, coaches preparations and motivations vary much more as they as the focus is usually on evaluating players and determining who can help the team and fit ahead of the regular season.
Last week we also saw some big line moves including on the Jaguars, who were as high as a 4-point underdog at openers through a few leading online sportsbooks, and closed as a 3-4 point favorite at a number of online sportsbooks. Sharp money pounded Jacksonville based on a solid winning situation, and it didn't work out in Jacksonville's 23-13 home loss to the Cleveland Browns. The moneyline also moved from -200 to +160 at some sportsbooks.
While somewhat extreme, bigger line moves are not uncommon as information and motivation often drives betting lines as sportsbooks adjust. But making a bet on the Jaguars -3 or any other team after such a significant line adjustment is not only a poor decision, but a way to lose much more often and bust your bankroll.
Betting on the preseason can be profitable if you stay ahead of the game and really tune into information provided and react quickly. It's okay to follow a line move that is gaining some steam, but not real significant one and those that cross over key numbers. There are usually alternative ways to bet on a team or game if the line is moving, and that can include betting on the first half instead of the full game line if their is more movement of the lines, odds and totals at your online sportsbooks of choice and hopefully the top payout sportsbooks.
Play against teams in NFL-X preseason Week 2
Giants at Browns (check and follow line).
So speaking of the Cleveland Browns off their 23-13 road win last week. The Browns are now in a play against situation if the line reaches -6, or you can make the play as interested knowing:
- Any home favorite of 6 or more points (off one-win exact) off a win by 10 or more points is 5-22 ATS (play on NY Giants on Sunday, Aug 22)
Lions at Steelers (-5.5)
- Any Game 2 favorite of 4 > points off a SU and ATS win versus an opponent off a Straight up (SU) loss is 7-25-1 ATS. Play against the Steelers (-5.5) vs the Lions.
Here's a NFL preseason situation from Dr. Bob Sports on a motivational situation that makes sense.
There are 5 games that qualify in Week 2, and situation is 104-65 ATS (plus pushes), or 61.5% since 1994. The bet on teams below are bold, and those teams lost their first preseason game and are playing a team that won their first preseason game. Seems like more motivation for the team off a loss, even though the games don't actually count. There is a subset angle that is 62-16 ATS, and since 2014 it's 17-6 ATS.
Eagles (+1.5) vs Patriots
Packers (+2.5) vs Jets
Seahawks (+5) vs Broncos
Rams (+6.5) vs Raiders
49ers (-5.5) at LA Chargers
Note the line moves, and also that underdogs of 3 points or more are 23-3 ATS and 17-9 straight-up when qualifying in this angle.
So bet if you like or follow along and dig in a little deeper into the teams game plans, preparations, quarterback rotations, personnel and playing time. Follow the teams beat writers and other insiders for additional nuggets, chip-ins and information you can bet on.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Read more great insights from FairwayJay and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay