NFL Odds & Picks – The Big Apple is rotten: Jets and Giants are underdogs, as they should be

I know everybody wants to talk about New Jersey as a “toxic” state. And indeed, there are plenty of “Hazmat” signs to go around.

But the pathetic state of the football teams located there has “New York:” written all over it.

The Jets and Giants will, almost without a doubt, have new coaches next season. They might also be in need of a new quarterback. So what are they going to do in the meantime?

They’re going to play football, of course. But are they, from an organizational standpoint, be playing for a top-three pick in the NFL Draft so that they can once again seek out a solution at the game’s most critical position?

Let’s take a look at their games this week, along with another that involves last year's Super Bowl champion.

NEW YORK JETS at MIAMI DOLPHINS, 1 PM ET Sunday

NFL Odds at BetOnline: 

Dolphins -5.5 / Total 45

What would a story about the Jets be without a bit of controversy about Aaron Rodgers? This week he strongly implied that the Jets’ owner Woody Johnson doesn’t support his people enough. And on ESPN’s Pat McAfee Show he mentioned how the players would be auditioning for the new regime that’s coming.

Will that new regime want to keep Rodgers around? There have been rumors ranging from benching Rodgers to letting him leave, even though he’s under contract for 2025. Another rumor is that the Giants might be interested in him if they can’t land the QB they want (more on that in a minute or two). 

Blowing a 14-point lead against Seattle was not good for morale, if any existed. Nothing has gone as planned. And the Jets are the third most penalized team in the league (12 times last week against the Seahawks).

A few factors should be of special interest. One is that the weather won’t be freezing, so the Dolphins will be “safe.” Another is that it’s quite possible that Jets’ CB Sauce Gardner won’t play because of a hamstring injury. This Jets’ defense has the highest sack percentage in the NFL, but Tua Tagovailoa mitigates that effect somewhat, as he gets rid of the ball faster than anyone.

No, Tyreek Hill isn’t chewing up ground like he did last year (just 11.9 yards a catch). The running game hasn’t matched what it did last year. And the honeymoon is over for Mike McDaniel. But this is a Miami team desperate to stay in the wild card race, and fundamentally they can make things work for them here. 

NFL PICK: DOLPHINS -5.5

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, 8:20 PM ET Sunday

NFL Betting Lines at BetOnline:

Chiefs -4 / Total 43

Yes, the skeptics have been talking about the Chiefs' cozy relationship with the officials all season long. Indeed, they seem to have been bailed out of closer calls by bad calls. The Chargers have rather quickly become contenders under Jim Harbaugh. But while KC often plays down the level of opposition, they also rise to the occasion against the better teams. 

Harbaugh’s team comes into this game a little handicapped. JK Dobbins is on injured reserve, and while he looked like the anchor of what was going to be a great ground game, his absence means that there is more of a burden on Justin Herbert, who has been impressive, with one interception all year and a very low bad ball percentage (11.9%). 

But Ladd McConkey has knee and shoulder problems which might keep him out of this game or severely curtail him. Without him, this is a different passing attack. And the Chargers were scouring the waiver wire for help. 

Harbaugh’s defense has had its share of difficulty stopping the run (4.6 ypc allowed), and we can expect the Chiefs will be turning more to recently-returned Isiah Pacheco to pound the ball. We can move with the home team here.

NFL PICK: CHIEFS -4

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at NEW YORK GIANTS, 1 PM ET Sunday

Football Odds at BetOnline:

Saints -4.5 / Total 41

The Giants will hand the ball to Drew Lock once again, and they are expecting him to be better prepared, as he did not really get any practice reps with the first team before his Thanksgiving start in Dallas. He threw a pick-six in that one, but went 21 of 32 for 178 yards. 

Lock has an offensive line in front of him that is banged up. Among other dilemmas, left tackle Jermaine Eluemunor is not likely to play (quad injury). 

As both head coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen look like lame ducks, rumors persist that Aaron Rodgers might find himself wearing blue next year, and playing for Bill Belichick. That may be wishful thinking, but the Giants are wishful that they could have Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence available. But they do not.

Here’s a situation where neither of these teams has been able to slow down the opposition on the ground, as they are each allowing 5.1 yards per carry. They are the only two NFL teams yielding more than five yards a pop. 

So neither team “catches” very well. But which team is the better “pitcher”? Well, the Saints have to have an edge in that regard, with Alvin Kamara (894 yards). And interestingly enough, Derek Carr is 6th in the quarterback grading at Pro Football Focus.

We admit that you have to swallow hard to lay this kind of number with New Orleans on the road. After two decisive wins to start the season, they seemed to have laid down. But interim coach Darren Rizzi has brought a little energy into the situation, and the Saints are not completely eliminated from the playoff picture. 

NFL PICK: SAINTS -4.5 

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