LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

NFL Futures Odds :

To Win Super Bowl +8000
To Win AFC Championship +3300
To Win AFC West +1000
Regular Season Wins -- Under 7.5 Wins -155, Over 7.5 Wins +125
To Make Playoffs -- No -375, Yes +300

It might not, on the surface, have seemed like a big deal that Tom Brady and partner Tom Wagner purchased only 10% of the Las Vegas Raiders franchise. But these days, that represents a substantial piece of the action, when you consider what NFL teams are currently valued at.

Reportedly, the net investment (that is, the amount that went to majority owner Mark Davis) was $220 million, and this admittedly brought some concern on the part of some of the NFL owners because it looked as if Brady was getting a sweetheart deal, not to mention a way to have his cake and eat it too.
A Forbes valuation as of 2024 had the Raiders as the seventh most valuable team at $6.7 million. So imagine what kind of value Brady and his guy received. This process took a while to get approval, because NFL owners tend to be protective over the franchise values. Such a thing is understandable when you consider that because of the league's revenue-sharing situation and salary cap, any sale of a franchise (or part thereof) can have an effect on the values of everyone else's team. And the Brady transaction, as opposed to Josh Harris' purchase of the Washington Commanders, for example, looks like a step back rather than a step forward.

Back in October, after the approval, Mike Florio of NBC and Pro Football Talk wrote this:

"Mark my words. One of these days, maybe later than sooner, Brady will end up as the controlling owner of the Raiders. If that transaction goes like the one the NFL just approved, he’ll get the 30 percent necessary to run the show without paying anything close to what another 20 percent is worth."

Brady a conflict of interest?

Another hurdle Brady was able to jump through, with some restrictions, was the big-money contract he signed with Fox to be their #1 color commentator on games. Naturally one could see a conflict on this. And normally I would not expect that an institution like the NFL would allow it, although off the top of my head Shaquille O'Neal was permitted to own a percentage of the Sacramento Kings while still continuing to perform as studio talent for TNT for NBA games.

The NBA is a little different than the NFL in that the players (and former players, I guess) have a lot more control.

So by the edict of the NFL league office, Brady can't go into another team's building, or into a production meeting with any team's players and/or coaches, and can't attend practices, can't bet on games, etc. I guess he's supposed to make believe he isn't calling anyone on the phone either.

He has just completed the first-year of a 10-year, $375 million contract with the network.

And agent Don Yee says he's going to stick with his gig till the end.

"Tom has had a tremendous amount of fun working with Fox this year," he said as the playoffs were in progress, "and he's really excited about the future with Fox and his growth on their team."

And why the hell WOULDN'T he continue? The deal finances his ownership stake in the Raiders and then some, getting him closer to the additional 20% Florio projected.

Of course, the obscene money in that TV deal comes because Brady obviously carries a lot of value to the network, in their view. And they had to come with a much better figure than the $17 million per year Tony Romo is getting from CBS. After all, he's got the edge in that matchup, seven Super Bowl rings to none.

It's about star power, even if you're not on the field.

And we should acknowledge that there is a certain added value to having Brady aboard as a part-owner with the Raiders, other than his celebrity status. And that might explain how he got in for such a bargain price.

It has been Brady's intention to be very active with the Silver and Black, and it is Davis' intention to get as much input from him as he can. if you took an anonymous survey from around the league, you'd probably find that Davis, unlike his famous father Al, is not held in high regard by most people for his pro football acumen. So the presence of someone who has found his way to so many world championships is not unwelcome.

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Brady's input at decision time 

Numerous published reports indicated that Brady "nudged" Davis to dismiss head coach Antonio Pierce and general manager Tom Telesco.

There was no surprise here.

Pierce had become the head coach as a result of winning a power struggle with Josh McDaniels. That's obviously something where Davis gave him the nod in that battle.

This came after McDaniels and Pierce had it out in the locker room - in front of players - as McDaniels started to speak about the "Patriot Way" he learned when he was an assistant coach at New England, and Pierce rebuked him, reminding him that when he was with the Giants, they beat the Pats in the Super Bowl. Yes, it got contentious; yes, Pierce went into the whole "I'm a Raider, not a Patriot" thing with him, and yes, he went to Davis to tell him what a weak, disloyal piece of garbage McDaniels was (I'm speaking figuratively).

McDaniels got canned. Pierce got the job. But the whole "rough guy" routine went stale when it had to applied on an extended basis. His inexperience as a head coach exposed itself. And you just KNOW that Brady, who was the chief instrument of the "Patriot Way," wasn't going to let him hang around.

No, the Raiders were not going to bring McDaniels back (in fact, he is back in New England as offensive coordinator). But they were going to find someone who was ready to be a head coach.

Raiders turn to a proven winner as head coach

Most teams look for an assistant from a winning program who might be the "flavor of the month." But Brady and Davis went instead for a golden oldie who was a proven commodity as a head coach.

Pete Carroll was not interested in walking away from the game after he was let go by the Seattle Seahawks. And as someone who had built a team almost from Square One, he is attractive for a franchise that wants to win as soon as possible.

Yes, the Raiders are a "project." But Carroll was not about to get into the business of "developing" quarterbacks. That means Aidan O'Connell is in a backup role, where he belongs. It also means that despite being touted as Shadeur Sanders' "mentor," Brady apparently didn't advise the Raiders to draft him.

Carroll reached into his past experiences at Seattle to find the new QB. There was speculation about interest in Russell Wilson, but that didn't materialize into anything.

Instead, Carroll turned to someone he's always had a lot of faith in. After Wilson was traded to Denver, Carroll insisted that Geno Smith, the backup and career underachiever, knew his offense and was ready to lead it. Did anyone believe him?

Well, they should have. Smith stepped right in - and we mean RIGHT in, outdueling Wilson in his first game as a starter - and punched his ticket to the Pro Bowl, leading the league in completion percentage, throwing 30 touchdown passes and winning the Comeback Player of the Year award. He bloomed late.

Last year he completed 70% and set a career high in passing yards. And Las Vegas acquired him for the price of a third-round draft pick.

What about Smith's supporting cast?

Some offensive pieces are in place. Tight End Brock Bowers proved to be the real thing, catching 112 passes for 1194 yards and making first team All-Pro. Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers also topped 1000 yards. They surprised some people by drafting WR John Bech out of TCU on the second round. But he rallied late in the draft process, winning the MVP in the Senior Bowl. Fourth round pick Dont'e Thornton from Tennessee was one of the most impressive players in early workouts. He has size (6'4-1/2") and a lot of speed (4.3 in the 40-yard dash).

One glaring need was in the run game, which, after Josh Jacobs left for Green Bay, ranked last in the NFL. So the Raiders picked up the player who was widely considered the best running back in the draft. Ashton Jeanty of Boise State led the nation with 2601 rushing yards last season. The year before he led all running backs in receiving yards with 569. It goes without saying that Carroll and the Raiders are expecting him to assume a starring role in this lineup.

Kolton Miller graded eleventh in pass blocking past year, according to the analytics site Pro Football Focus. As a unit, the Raiders were graded 13th in pass blocking and 20th in run blocking by PFF. They drafted two offensive tackles on the third round. They could be deep.

And check out the new offensive coordinator. It's Chip Kelly, who has been in a lot of places, and ran the offense for national champion Ohio State last season.

Defensively, what can you say about Maxx Crosby? He's one of the more productive people in the business, and has made four consecutive AFC Pro Bowl rosters. When he went out with an ankle injury last year, he was tied for the league lead in tackles for loss, a category in which he led the NFL the previous two seasons. He's coming off surgery on his ankle.

They may have gotten some help in the draft. Cornerback Darien Porter of Iowa State, a third-round pick, is another of those size-speed guys, at 6'3" with a 4.3 in the 40. They hope JJ Pegues of Ole Miss is a sixth-round sleeper; he's an athlete who has not only played all over the defesnive line but also at running back, where he scored seven touchdowns in short-yardage situations.

2025 Las Vegas Raiders Predictions

I'm going to be honest with you; this is going to be a tough slog for the Raiders. I say that because the other teams in the AFC West (Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers) have legitimate playoff aspirations. They may not get more than one win out of the division.

Jeanty has to become the kind of back to handle the bulk of the load and do it in spectacular fashion. Raheem Mostert will be his backup, and that should give him some relief.

Outside of the division, the schedule, outside of Washington and Philadelphia, isn't so daunting, IF they are improved. We're reasonably certain that they can get better QB play this season with Geno Smith.

And from what I have seen with Carroll over the years, his teams often overachieve. They won't lay down and roll over for him; that's for sure.

Still, there's a long way to go for this offense that tallied more than 20 points only three times in 2024. We'd have to lean slightly to the "Under" here, even at the price of -155.

Ashton Jeanty is the +275 favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at BetOnline, where you've got plenty of NFL Futures wagers to look through in advance of the 2025 season...... It's very easy to sign up for an account; use your debit or credit card, or choose any of sixteen different cryptocurrency options they have available, including Bitcoin!