KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

NFL Futures Odds:

To Win Super Bowl +800
To Win AFC Championship +375
To Win AFC West -120
Regular Season Wins -- Under 11.5 Wins -130, Over 11.5 Wins +100
To Make Playoffs -- Yes -400, No +300

I promised myself that this preview of the Chiefs wouldn't be all about Patrick Mahomes. After all, we already know what he can do.

But yes, a lot of it is about Mahomes, with a focus on what he can do MORE of. And, the newcomer who can help him get there.

Getting the ball downfield - that's the dilemma

We want to keep in mind that this Kansas City team was not the league’s best at stretching things out in 2024. They were last in the NFL in explosive runs, and Mahomes, who has one of the NFL’s lowest Intended Air Yards totals (6.2 per throw) threw 27% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage.

This represented a pattern on the part of the three-time Super Bowl championship quarterback. If you take a look at this list, you can see the IAY rate (reflective of how far beyond the line of scrimmage a pass goes) for each of the last seven years and where that ranked him in the NFL:

2018 -- 9.1 (6th)
2019 -- 8.8 (10th)
2020 -- 8.4 (13th)
2021 -- 7.3 (24th)
2022 -- 7.2 (23rd)
2023 -- 6.5 (30th)
2024 -- 6.2 (34th)

So it's not difficult to see that Mahomes has thrown the ball for shorter distances just about each and every season. And obviously, since he has continued to succeed, he's been great at adapting to whatever he's had to do.

But I think everyone would agree that it would be better for the Kansas City offense overall if he had more flexibility in what he chose to do with the ball on passing plays; i.e., if he could get the ball down the field more.

Yes, you will hear that part of this involves the departure of Tyreek Hill, a true long ball threat. And there have been adjustments, to be sure.

But another part of this discussion is that Mahomes has chosen to get rid of the ball quicker in order to avoid the oncoming pressure of opposing defenses.

Mahomes' average "pocket time" in 2018 was 2.5 seconds. That figure in 2024 was 2.3. Okay, not a considerable difference, unless you consider that when a quarterback drops back to throw, things happen in a matter of tenths of a second.

Here's the fact - Mahomes simply hasn't been afforded enough time to get into the pocket and pick out his receivers. So he has to look for guy running shorter routes. Witness the production of Travis Kelce, who caught 97 passes but averaged only 8.5 yards per catch.

Mahomes' escapability is what has enabled him to buy some time for himself. But if you notice the Super Bowls this crew has lost - against the Bucs and Eagles - they simply were not able to handle a superior pass rush. And for a team like the Chiefs, who aspire to operate at the highest level and for whom anything less than a championship is a bitter defeat, that's the only thing that really matters.

If all the members of the Kansas City receiving corps could be healthy at the same time, they wouldn't have a bad crew at all. Xavier Worthy, famous for running that 4.2-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, has the ability to be a deep threat. So does Rashee Rice. Hollywood Brown has proven that he can make some big plays in the NFL. Then there's Skyy Moore, who hasn't yet realized what they figure is his potential, along with veteran Juju Smith-Schuster, who still has something left. And fourth-round pick Jalen Royals out of Utah State may be a sleeper. And seventh-round draft choice Breshard Smith of SMU, a 4.4 guy, was taken as a running back but can also play wide receiver.

But without guys to protect Mahomes, they may have to just keep putt-putting down the field, and when you look at their performances last season, they exceeded 30 points only once. That was against Buffalo in the AFC Championship game.

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The arrival of a rookie could shore up the OL problem

You can't have a lot of complaints about the middle of KC's offensive line. Center Creed Humphrey may be the best in the business; guard Trey Smith got a Pro Bowl Games bid last season. Joe Thuney, at the other guard, was an All-Pro but was dealt to the Chicago Bears as he approached the last year of his contract. Mike Caliendo is the top candidate to move into Thuney's spot.

But left tackle has been a consistent source of anxiety, and it has all too often sent Mahomes running for his life. Signing free agent Jaylon Moore, who was with San Francisco last year, is not likely to be a real answer. They have also tried draft choices in that spot, and perhaps they will provide depth at different positions.

This year they decided to address the situation. They spent their first-round draft pick (32nd overall) on an offensive tackle. And I think the key to how far the Chiefs can go may be tied to what they get out of Josh Simmons, the rookie out of Ohio State, who on talent alone may have been the second or third best O-lineman in the draft.

Answers - good answers anyway - are rarely easy, and this one comes with a few complications. You see, Simmons was a strong presence on a national championship team, but he didn't get that far with the Buckeyes. A torn patellar tendon forced him to miss most of the season, although it should be mentioned that he went out in the sixth game against Oregon but had not allowed a sack all season until then.

There is some question as to whether Simmons will be able to start the regular season with the Chiefs as he continues his recovery. But he's been in drills, and Kelce has the highest level of praise for him.

“That’s what blew me away was everybody talking about how athletic he is, and you see that immediately, seeing him go through drills and how comfortable he is, how great of a base he has, and everything like that,” Kelce said on his podcast.

Chiefs coach Andy Reid believes Simmons will be ready to participate fully in training camp. "You can see his athletic ability,'' he told reporters at the end of mini-camp. "You can see his want-to. He's got a great attitude. He's approached everything the right way plus a little bit extra."

Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy has also been enthusiastic. “I mean, his ability to really show his strength and athleticism on the edge," he said. "One-on-one, being able to recover if he gets beat, it’s rare.”

Kansas City Chief 2025 Prediction

In the AFC West, there are teams sneaking up on the Chiefs. The Denver Broncos have started to find themselves under Sean Payton, and the Los Angeles Chargers like to think they are taking steps toward championship status under Jim Harbaugh. The Las Vegas Raiders stabilized their coaching (Pete Carroll) and quarterback (Geno Smith) situations.

But those teams aren't quite there yet. And we don't sense that the Chiefs are ready for a full slip. Remember that Isiah Pacheco was a seventh-round pick who really meant something, and Breshard Smith might give off the same vibe. They might yet have a complete set of wide receivers.

And if Simmons works out the way these guys think he can, he can really help turn loose some of the weapons they have. The Chiefs are going to be a pretty decent play at -120 to win the division, and a +800 investment for a Super Bowl title should be considered. If I can take even money to get to twelve wins, I'll take it.


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