ATLANTA FALCONS

NFL Futures Odds:

To Win Super Bowl +6600
To Win NFC Championship +3300
To Win NFC South +225
Regular Season Wins -- Over 7.5 Wins -155, Under 7.5 Wins +125
To Make Playoffs -- No -175, Yes +145

One of things we wanted to do here is remind you that Kirk Cousins is still a member of the Atlanta Falcons. He has not been released. He has not been traded.

But he has been unseated as the starting quarterback for the Falcons. I don't think was necessarily the plan when the team signed him to a $180 million contract. However, that's the way it had to go down. And maybe this is what some people in the franchise's front office had in the back of their mind when they made Michael Penix Jr. the #8 overall choice in the 2024 draft.

While Atlanta has headed in the direction of handing the offense over to Penix, Cousins exists as a key insurance piece, even as speculation continues to swirl about what the team might eventually do with him. Latest rumors have him being moved to Cleveland, where the Browns don't really have anybody they can be confident in going into the season. But here are the facts - Cousins has recently spoken up about his disappointment when, after having signed that huge free agent deal, with most of the money guaranteed, he saw the Falcons spent a first-rounder on another QB.
It now may seem as if Penix was a bit of an insurance policy against Cousins being unable to regain his form after sitting out much of the 2023 campaign with a torn Achilles.

The transition from Cousins to Penix 

The Achilles didn't turn out to be the problem in 2024. It was a shoulder that got banged up, and which he kept playing with. In his first nine games, he threw 17 TD passes with seven INT's. In the next five, he had just one touchdown and nine interceptions, with a cumulative quarterback rating of 63.8. On the season he had 16 INT's and fumbled the ball 13 times.

And so they handed Penix the ball.

The rookie from Washington, who led the Huskies to a national championship game appearance, did not knock anyone over with his numbers (58%, three TD's and three INT's, 7.4 yards per attempt).

But it is the feeling of head coach Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot that Penix can bring a new dimension to the offense. While Cousins is a quarterback that has a background of playing within West Coast-style offensive attacks, Penix is more of a swashbuckler, who has a propensity to throw the ball long.

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What makes Atlanta a Potentially dangerous offense 

If he is successful in stretching out opposing defenses that way, he'll make a very good ground game even better. If you're in the mood to disparage the Falcons, you can say anything you want, but you can't be too critical off this offensive line that does a great job in opening up holes for the run. Certainly losing center Drew Dalman was a big blow, but they think they can replace him with Ryan Neuzil, and there are outstanding people all the way across, including left tackle Jake Matthews, right tackle Kaleb McGary and All-Pro guard Chris Lindstrom. The analytics site Pro Football Focus graded the OL out as #1 in the NFL in run blocking last year.

They have a formidable duo carrying the ball as well. There aren't too many tailbacks better than Bijon Robinson, who is coming off a season where he had 1456 yards and 14 TD's on the ground. And Tyler Allgeier, who topped 1000 yards as a rookie in 2022, averaged 4.7 yards per carry in the second banana role.

Penix is obviously going to need people to throw to, especially downfield, and the Falcons hope that they can generate a lot of firepower between Drake London (100 catches, 1271 yards), Darrell Mooney (992 yards, 15.5 per reception) and Ray Ray McCloud (686 yards). Then, of course, there is Kyle Pitts, who is one of the more athletic tight ends.

Floyd, Pearce look to solve pass rush problem 

Defense has been another issue, and perhaps no new arrival is more important than Leonard Floyd, who's had 48 sacks the last five seasons and comes in on a one-year, $10 million deal. They also took an edge rusher extraordinaire (by college standards) with James Pearce Jr. of Tennessee, the 26th overall pick in the draft (for whom they traded up). He had one of the highest pressure rates among all the FBS schools. Only one team sacked the quarterback with less frequency last year than the Falcons.

Where the insurance policy comes in 

As we mentioned, Penix has the potential to make this offense more wide open and explosive. But the Falcons have to be ready for the possibility that there are a few stumbles along the way. Remember, (a) he is a developing player, and (b) he has suffered two torn ACL's before, so he's not necessarily healthy all the time.

And that's how this story might get around to Cousins again. If you recall, he was drafted in the fourth round by Washington in 2012. This came after the Redskins had given up a king's ransom to gain the rights to Robert Griffin III with the second overall pick. Griffin was the guy owner Daniel Snyder wanted. But head coach Mike Shanahan and his staff preferred Cousins, who eventually got his chance after RG3 suffered a knee injury.

And that is basically how his career got started.

Cousins, who has been voted into four Pro Bowls, has developed a reputation for being well-prepared. And he has generally handled his benching in a classy way. If he's called upon, however, he will bring much more experience to the table than Penix.

So you never know.

2025 Atlanta Falcons Prediction

The thing about the NFC South is that even though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have ruled it in recent seasons, they aren't exactly miles ahead of the field. So a division title isn't far out of reach for anybody.

If Penix works out well for the Falcons, they have a chance to capture the division at +225. And can they approach the .500 mark? You can collect at -155 if they win just eight games. If Penix justifies management's faith in him, that barrier could be easy. But even if he falls short, or gets hurt, this team could still be in position to go at least 8-9.

Why?

The answer is Kirk Cousins, who actually has a price of +3300 to be Comeback Player of the Year at BetOnline, where you've got plenty of NFL Futures wagers to look through in advance of the 2025 season...... It's very easy to sign up for an account; use your debit or credit card, or choose any of sixteen different cryptocurrency options they have available, including Bitcoin!