Does the preseason help when betting NFL football?

The future is uncertain; that much IS certain. And when we discuss NFL futures at BetOnline, specifically those involving total regular season wins, we are faced with the possibility of dealing with the unknown.

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

First, let's quickly define what we mean by this kind of proposition. Bettors are encountered with an "over-under" on how many games a team will win during the regular season, with a price assigned to each. For example:

Team A over 7-1/2 wins -150
Team B under 7-1/2 wins +110

It's relatively simple, actually. Arriving at an analysis, however, isn't so simple.

And we say that even under normal circumstances. By "normal circumstances," we mean with a pre-season included.

That isn't the case this year. The NFL will not be conducting a pre-season schedule, in the process of taking extra precautions due to COVID-19. The conventional wisdom is that this will get in the way of the various teams being able to evaluate their players for the purposes of who stays on the roster, who starts, etc.

These days, people get to watch all of these games, as they are televised by NFL Network on a delayed basis. Are they of use to handicappers, and will their absence create too much acting on the "blind"?

What does one cull from these games? Well, they get to see the backup quarterbacks, for one thing. In other words, for the most part, and with the exception of the third game, which is the "dress rehearsal," so to speak, you won't see the starters get the most action.

And what are they actually revealing from their playbook?

Not much, really.

BetOnline customers get to see a lot of players in the pre-season games. They'll see highly-touted rookies as well as some other players who are struggling to make the team. And while one might automatically think that this supplies more information, and that the more information, the better, that can't so easily be said.

You see, while they are indeed being seen in game situations, it doesn't necessarily resemble the kind of thing they will see in an actual regular season game. And the agenda of the coaches is usually much different than it would be in the regular season. Almost all coaches will give lip service to the idea of "wanting to win" in the pre-season. However, that does not always manifest itself in reality.

There are certain coaches who are looking for a big effort from their teams in pre-season games. John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens, Pete Carroll of the Seattle Seahawks and Mike Zimmer of the Minnesota Vikings are people who come to mind. But you can't use the behavior of other coaches as a barometer.

In other words, evaluating teams on the basis of what you see in pre-season games is risky, more often than not. In 2008 the Detroit Lions went 4-0 in the pre-season, only to lose every regular season game after that.

And I have had enough conversation with scouts to understand that when it comes to a team making decisions about personnel, training camp activity - that is to say, drills, scrimmages and the like - can be just as important, if not more so, than that which is put out there on public display.

That's because everything is put on tape - EVERYTHING - so a coaching staff has a lot more on which to evaluate people than just a series of plays in a pre-season game.

The point we're making is that while we think there is more information being put before us in a pre-season, it could gravitate toward being dis-information, if not mis-information. Doing your own evaluation based on what you see - and yes, what you read - may serve you just as well as anything that might inadvertently give you a wrong impression.

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