NFL Betting -- 4 O'Clock Rock: Looking at the Late Games

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Sep 27th, 2020 12:37:36 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Bucs and Los Angeles Chargers are among the favorites in late-starting NFL games for Sunday afternoon.


And remember that it's never too late to wager, when you have Sports Betting Prime at BetAnySports.


NEW YORK JETS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 4:05 PM ET
Line: Colts -11
Total: 44 points

Right now there are all kinds of offensive injuries for the Jets, including three wide receivers out, and they'll have to go to the "street" to fill out the roster. And Le'Veon Bell is still unavailable. Let's add to this the fact that Sam Darnold is, uh, behind schedule in his development. Philip Rivers has been very accurate (77.5%), but part of the formula is that Frank Reich is seeking some balance with the running game. The Jets' pass rush is a so-so proposition, but aside from two long runs last week, they managed to keep Frisco bottled up on the ground. Gregg Williams' stop unit is third best in Adjusted Line Yards and best in Stuff Rate (we had to throw a couple of metrics at you). UNDER 44


CAROLINA PANTHERS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS, 4:05 PM ET
Line: Chargers -6.5
Total 44 points

Justin Herbert's numbers were nice in his pro debut (22-33, 311 yards), and he'll start again this week. But let's see him do that again. The Bolts are dealing with more guys on injured reserve, including Derwin James and Melvin Ingram. Yes, the Panthers have lost their best offensive player, Christian McCaffrey, to an ankle injury. But offensive coordinator Joe Brady is figuring out more options for QB Teddy Bridgewater, including former Jet Robby Anderson and second-year guy DJ Moore. They'll generate something on the offensive end. This is a case where we wonder whether the Chargers are a little overvalued off last week's near-miss against the Chiefs, where they led almost all the way. PANTHERS +6.5 and OVER 44


DETROIT LIONS at ARIZONA CARDINALS, 4:25 PM ET
Line at BetAnySports: Cardinals -5.5
Total: 56 points

No question that Kyler Murray is getting the hang of it, and Kliff Kingsbury doesn't look so much like a mad scientist anymore. Murray got sacked three times by Washington last week for a total of only eight yards. DeAndre Hopkins didn't have to have a monster game for the Cards to emerge with a win in the desert, and take notice of Kenyan Drake's ability to balance things just a little. Be honest - would Arizona have been better off with Josh Rosen at the helm? Don't think so. Detroit again down near the bottom in terms of rushing play percentage. Matthew Stafford might have Kenny Golladay at his disposal this week. But still some key defensive injuries on the Detroit side. OVER 56


TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at DENVER BRONCOS, 4:25 PM ET
Line: Buccaneers -6
Total: 42.5 points

Okay, so Tom Brady settled down a little last week. But he still averaged only about six yards per attempt. You have to have some admiration for the way the Broncos hung in there with Pittsburgh last week after losing starting QB Drew Lock. Bucs unleashed Leonard Fournette with great success last week (103 yards), but we still harbor doubts about the Tampa Bay stop unit, which allowed 367 passing yards to Carolina's Bridgewater. And Denver's new starter, Jeff Driskel, isn't your usual dink-and-dunker; he led all quarterbacks last week in Intended Air Yards. Broncos have covered seven of last nine as a dog. BRONCOS +6


DALLAS COWBOYS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, 4:25 PM ET
Line: Seahawks -4.5
Total: 56.5 points

if Atlanta had fallen on that onside kick, the Cowboys would be 0-2 right now. Would you be looking at this game differently? Ask yourself. Now we bring up some other stuff. Seattle is smack dab in the middle of the league in Run Play Percentage and not near the top like it was last year. As Pete Carroll has allowed Russell Wilson to do his thing and carry the club through the air, this offense has taken flight. Wilson leads the NFL in passing efficiency; he is completing 82.5% of his throws with nine TD's and he's averaging 9.7 yards per attempt. Not sure we want to lay this number with Seahawks, who have surrendered 747 pass yards in these first two weeks. Yeah, that secondary is a work in progress, even with Jamal Adams, And Dallas has a new speed-burner in CeeDee Lamb. OVER 56.5


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