NFL Week 1 Predictions and Picks

Fairway's Football Forcast continues our NFL coverage and picks at Off Shore Gaming Assocation for a 9th straight season. That follows a 7-year-run hitting 57% ATS posting and picking only NFL underdogs before last season's second half struggles with record winning results for NFL favorites. We change the approach this year adding more picks, props and parlays along with select totals, tips and trends, which saw us and many bettors get fk'd on opening night in the Eagles 24-20 win over the Cowboys (41 1st half points and weather delay). 

Bet Labs reports that since 2010, NFL underdogs of 6 or more points in NFL Week 1 have gone 41-27-1 (60%) ATS. Add another winner on the Dallas Cowboys (+8.5) in their Thursday night opening game loss at Philadelphia, despite just 22 rushes for 119 yards (an 80% losing ATS rush attempts stat last 2 years). Conversely, from my decades long proprietary spread sheets and database of boxscore analysis, the Eagles rushed 38 times for 158 yards, an 82% ATS winning situation the past six years including > 80% ATS the past two seasons when teams run the ball 30+ times in a game. 

Division 'Dogs start 2-0 ATS with Cowboys and Chargers (outright), and six more division matchups Week 2. 

NFL Week 1 Matchups And Odds 

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites plus game totals, and division games in bold. Compare the Week 1 spreads and totals from openers released in May. 

Sunday, Sept. 7 

Pittsburgh (-3) at NY Jets, 38
Miami at Indianapolis (-1), 46.5
Carolina at Jacksonville (-3.5), 47
NY Giants at Washington (-6), 45.5
Cincinnati (-5) at Cleveland, 48
Las Vegas at New England (-2.5/3), 44
Arizona (-6.5) at New Orleans, 43
Tampa Bay (-1) at Atlanta, 47
Tennessee at Denver (-8.5), 42.5
San Francisco (-2) at Seattle, 43
Detroit at Green Bay (-2), 47 
Houston at LA Rams (-3), 43
Baltimore (-1.5) at Buffalo, 50.5 - SNF
Minnesota (-1.5) at Chicago, 43.5 - Monday

Biggest side spreads changes in recent days Bucs -2.5 to -1 and Ravens pk to -1.5. See opening spreads from May for all NFL games each week. 

Projected rushing yards edges of note in Week 1 matchups favor Steelers, Jaguars, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Broncos, Ravens - all favorites, and thus the underdogs don't make our Week 1 picks. The Texans may also prove to have the edge against the Rams with Houston's stronger defensive line, but the Texans offensive line rates among the worst to start the season and we watch all these games with interest and how teams perform at the point of attack beyond just the stats. 

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Picks And Parlays

3-team parlay - Colts, Broncos, Ravens
2-team 'Dog parlay - Raiders, Bears

Parlays are also sides I prefer and if betting parlays, know the risk, odds and consider reduced wagers, amount. 

I have a top totals play on the Steelers-Jets game under. Pittsburgh's defense should be even better this season with addition of CB Jalen Ramsey, who ranked 2nd in PFF Run Defense Grade among cornerbacks. Aging HOF QB Aaron Rodgers (41) takes over as an upgrade but still a run-heavy approach for the Steelers. Offensive line problems for the Jets include Alijah Vera-Tucker now out for the season (torn triceps). New schemes, coaches and personnel including New York QB Justin Fields offers little enthusiasm or positive passing grades as one of a record 16 black quarterbacks starting in the NFL this season. He holds the ball too long, and his stats back it up ranking 31st in EPA/play when QBs throw in under 2.5 seconds last season.

Also bet Texans/Rams under. 

Division Game Spotlights

NY Giants at Washington - New York faces one of the most difficult schedules this season that includes 10 playoff teams from last season. Veteran QB Russell Wilson takes over for the G-men with rookie franchise QB Jaxson Dart watching and waiting. Commanders offensive ROY quarterback Jayden Daniels has set high expectations following last year's run to the NFC Championship game after being pick last in the division. The Commanders played 13 one-score games last season, winning nine including both close wins over the Giants, who now feature one of the league's most feared defensive fronts. The Commanders defense and particularly it's front is rated among the worst in the league. Additional underdog support for division 'Dogs at this price point. Opinion: NY Giants 

Detroit at Green Bay: New season and the Packers are gaining steam and market support especially after trading for generational talent, LB Micah Parsons. The Lions are on a 4-0 ATS streak in Week 1's, and also a remarkable 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road division games. The Lions top talent on offense now adjusts to a new coordinator with Ben Johnson leaving to coach the division rival Bears, but QB Jared Goff is undefeated ATS in Week 1 during his career. Both these teams averaged 30+ rush attempts per game last season, and QB Jordan Love showed more promise with 4,000+ passing yards and 30 TD passes. This matchup projects as one of the top-2 most combined yards in Week 1 making a higher-scoring game also of interest. Opinion: Packers and Over 

Player Props

So many player prop opportunities each week and proving more beatable than NFL sides if you research and handicap with an understanding of stats and matchups. We'll add some each week as able. 

Monday Night Football 

Vikings TE TJ Hockenson over 41.5 receiving yards. He's gone over this total yards in 70% of his starts with the Vikings, and favorable matchups plus a conservative scheme for QB McCarthy will have Hockenson a key target.

Other ATS Angles

The Broncos went 8-0 SU/ATS as a favorite last season with rookie QB Bo Nix. NFL No. 1 overall draft pick QB's (28 overall) are just 8-20 ATS, and Titans No. 1 QB Cam Ward has a tough task in Mile High against the highly-rated Broncos defense and a Titans offensive line ranked in the lower quartile to start the season. The Titans offense averaged just 18 points per game and 304 yards per game last season. Buyer beware a bit as the Broncos are the most popular spread bet in Week 1 at leading online sportsbooks. 

Monday night football Playbook notes that MNF favorites like the Vikings (at Chicago) are 33-29 straight up (SU) and 20-41-1 against the spread (ATS) since since 1980, including 1-3 SU/ATS the past three seasons (more MNF doubleheaders this season starting Week 2). Darrisaw returns from injury for Vikings and practiced full Friday, but other new offensive lineman in front of QB JJ McCarthy making his NFL debut. Follow the Vikings injuries and all the NFL teams injury reports. 

Also, Lions fans, only 11 teams in NFL history have outscored their opponents by at least 200 points over the entire regular season—and only one of those teams (the 2014 Patriots) managed to win the Super Bowl that year. Just two of these 11 teams improved their overall record the following season. Detroit is still solid, but no way 15 wins again and Lions over/under season wins is 11.5.

You can bet on it.

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.