The big game betting continues into the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round and perhaps more competitive contests after five double-digit wins by teams in the Wild Card round. Recall there were four blowout wins in last year's Wild Card Round, and home underdogs are 3-0 SU/ATS the last two years in the Wild Card games. The leading online sportsbooks are taking more betting action on the AFC contests this weekend, and especially on the favorites Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, with that line flipping from Bills (-1.5) to Ravens (-1/-1.5). 

I provide more insight and analysis on the AFC games this weekend in my coverage in Forbes, and add more stats, ATS and information you can bet on below for all for games. 

First Time Playoff Starting Quarterbacks

For the second straight year, a rookie quarterback and strong playoff debut in leading his team to victory in the Wild Card Round. Last year it was CJ Stroud of the Texans, who was solid again last week in a home upset of the Chargers passing for 282 yards at 8.5 yards per pass with one TD and 1 interception. But Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels was better, leading Washington to a 23-20 last second road win over Tampa Bay while completing 24-of-35 passes for 268 yards (7.6 yppl) and 2 TD's without an INT while rushing for a team-high 36 yards. 

Rookie QB Bo Nix wasn't bad in his debut for the Broncos (13/22 for 144 yards, 1 TD), but Denver was steamrolled and stampeded at the point of attack by Buffalo, who rushed for 210 yards on 44 carries and held the Broncos to just 18 minutes of ball possession. The four big winners last week all rushed for at least 165 yards and out-rushed their opponents by at least 60 yards in victory - Texans, Ravens (299/50 rushes), Bills, Eagles. 

The playoffs are much different than the regular season, as the one-and-done format also has teams taking more chances when trailing, and variance along with uncertainty and some poor officiating and calls can change the dynamic of a game and outcome. Recall last year when the Lions beat the Rams 24-23 and the game failed to go over the total (51.5) with Detroit leading 21-17 at halftime and four first half TD's to zero in the second half. Now this year, the Rams led the Vikings 27-9 exactly halfway through the 3rd quarter, and neither team scored another point. Vikings QB Sam Darnold sh*t the bed in his playoff debut while getting sacked 9 times and passing for most of his 245 yards and INT with the game out of reach.

NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Matchups, Data And Odds

Here is ATS playoff data since 1988, courtesy of Playbook Sports. Rested home teams in the Divisional Round (KC and DET) have gone 104-36 SU and 73-63-4 ATS (4-0 SU/2-2 ATS last 2 years and 0-2 SU/ATS in 2022). Road teams coming off a Wild Card Round SU and ATS win (HOU, BAL, WASH, LAR) are 60-73-2 ATS in Divisional Round contests (1-3 SU/2-2 ATS last year and 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in 2023). Also, Divisional Round visitors coming off a Wild Card SU & ATS home win (HOU, BAL) are just 23-52 SU and 31-42-2 ATS (1-2 SU/ATS last year and 0-1 SU/1-0 ATS in 2023). 

Lines courtesy of BetOnline. All games times Eastern. Betting lines, totals, props and live-betting odds are subject to change at leading online sportsbooks. 

Saturday, Jan. 18 

No. 4 Houston Texans at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs | 4:30 p.m. | ESPN/ABC
Line: Chiefs (-9), Total 41.5 - Pick: Under and Lean Texans 

No. 6 Washington Commanders at No. 1 Detroit Lions | 8:00 p.m. | FOX
Line: Lions (-9.5), Total 55.5 - Pick: Over and Lean Commanders 

Sunday, Jan. 19 

No. 4 Los Angeles Rams at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles | 3:00 p.m. | NBC
Line: Eagles (-6) vs. Bucs, Total 42.5 - Opinion: Eagles 

No. 3 Baltimore Ravens at No. 2 Buffalo Bills | 6:30 p.m. | CBS
Line: Ravens (-1.5), Total 51.5 / 52 - Opinion: Under and Lean Bills 

Divisional Round Weekend splits update

Texans at Chiefs -9
58% $ and 61% of bets HOU

Commanders at Lions -9.5
60% $ and 54% of bets WAS

Rams at Eagles -6
83% $ and 56% of bets PHI

Ravens -1 at Bills
62% $ and 52% of bets BAL

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) January 17, 2025

Game notes and ATS

Houston at Kansas City - Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is 13-5 ATS in the Playoffs, winning his first Playoff game with a 15 point Margin of Victory. The past two seasons, he's been supported by a top-tier defense while the KC offense has not been nearly as prolific. The Chiefs have 3 weeks rest for their starters ahead of the rematch with the Texans, who the Chiefs beat on this field in December 27-19 with a +40 yards rushing edge. Texans defense has some studs up front and showed their strength last week at home over the Chargers and forcing elite QB Herbert into mistakes under pressure. The Chiefs defense allows the 4th lowest rate of middle passes in the NFL, and 6th in EPA per dropback allowed in those middle of the field passes. See my divisional round coverage in Forbes for more player props including QB Stroud under passing yards, and more likely Mahomes too. Chiefs QB Andy Reid is 19-11 ATS off a bye.

Bet Super Bowl Futures at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!

Washington at Detroit - A high-scoring shootout expected and we'll play it that way despite a very high total. The Lions defense is missing so many key players, and they have dropped below top-20 defense, and the Commanders offense is top-7 with no weather issues. Washington can attack and QB Daniels led the NFL adding 42.5 EPA on go routes, making WR Terry McLauren a strong target and candidate to have a bigger game. The Lions ahd league-high 41% cover 1 rate, but that's an issue turning your back in man coverage against QB Daniels, who led the NFL with a  +57.5 rush expected points added. The Lions defense allows a league-high 6.2 yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks. The Commanders defense surrendered a 65% dropback success rate last week vs. the Buccaneers, which was the worst since 2000. The Commanders have been terrible defending play action, which Detroit leads the NFL in play action (37%). Lions TE Sam LaPorta (5th yards per route run) should be a solid option catching passes in the seam (Commanders defense 26th in EPA per target to TEs). The Commanders last second win last week was their 5th consecutive victory on the final play of the game. Not likely this week, but a Commanders win would be a huge upset and (most likely) send them to Philadelphia for the NFC Championship Game.

Check back for more Sunday game notes and analysis. 

Speaking of the Ravens, one top online sportsbooks reports that "the Ravens have been extremely popular as they have been our most bet team to win the AFC and Super Bowl this past week." In addition, "Lamar Jackson has been on our most bet player in the Super Bowl MVP market, and Saquon Barkley is not far behind him." 

Post game updates: The Eagles line moved up from -6 when released and closed -7. The Eagles won 28-22. The Bills/Chiefs total was 51.5 and 52 at close at some leading online sportsbooks in the Bills 27-25 win. All four teams who won in the divisional round were outgained by the opponents. Texans outgained Chiefs 336 yards at 5.2 yards per play to 212 and 4.2. Per ESPN Stats & Info, the Texans were the first team to out-gain their opponent by 100 or more yards, not turn the ball over, and lose a post-season game. Previous such teams were 49-0 in the playoffs. Lions outgained Commanders 512 (7.7) to 481 (6.6) and Detroit had 5 turnovers (5-0). The Rams outgained the Eagles 402 (5.7) to 350 (5.7) with LA two turnovers (2-0). The Ravens outgained the Bills 416 (7.3) to 273 (4.6) and Baltimore had 3 turnovers (3-0). 

AFC and NFC Championship Game lookahead ahead lines posted at BetOnline include - Philadelphia at Detroit (-3/50.5), LA Rams at Detroit (-6/52.5), Washington at Philadelphia (-6.5/47.5), Washington at LA Rams (-3/48.5), Baltimore (-1/46.5) at Kansas City, Buffalo at Kansas City (-1.5/48.5), Houston at Baltimore (-9.5/45.5), Houston at Buffalo (-8/47). 

Follow more of my NFL playoffs and divisional round coverage at Forbes, and check back for more updates and information you can bet on for the divisional round on the road to Super Bowl LIX Nov. 9 in New Orleans. 

You can bet on it. 

BetOnline provides added player props for NFL games including prime time props, in addition to the best odds for pointspreads and total. Halftime betting is available as you enjoy more watch and wager action. Every day of the week, BetOnline customers can get greatly enhanced payouts on pre-selected parlays with Odds Booster.
 
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.