A team-by-team look at NFL season win totals and division odds
The 2023 season has arrived and we're chipping in NFL underdog picks again this season. Our 6-year record posting NFL underdog picks at Off Shore Gaming Association is 162-117 ATS (58.1%). But beyond the weekly NFL odds, bets, picks, futures and live betting that draws more bettors to the online sportsbooks, bettors are monitoring and betting season win totals, and following the division odds with some new teams as contenders in 2023.
I've updated the current 2023 season win totals for each team along with division odds from leading online sportsbook BetOnline ahead of Week 1. One season win total bet included (Patriots).
NFL Season Win Totals and Division Odds 2023
Over/Under win totals shown below are the best available prices on the 'over'.
Arizona Cardinals: Over/Under 3.5 (-145)
The Cardinals are coming off a 4-13 season in which they finished last in the NFC West. Former Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon is the new head coach. Arizona has the worst odds to win the NFC South at +2800.
Atlanta Falcons: Over/Under 8.5 (-145)
The Falcons finished 7-10 in the NFC South last season and no teams in the division had a winning record. A bounce back season is expected with the second-best division odds at +175.
Baltimore Ravens: Over/Under 10.5 (+100)
The Ravens finished second in the AFC North last season at 10-7 and lost to division champion Cincinnati Bengals 24-17 in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Baltimore is the second choice to win the AFC North at +220 with another tough division expected in 2023.
Buffalo Bills: Over/Under 10.5 (-160)
The AFC East looks loaded in 2023, but the Bills are still favored to win the division with +120 odds following an AFC East division title last season with a 13-3 record (one game canceled). The Bills suffered a disappointing 27-10 divisional round playoff loss to the Bengals, but are one of the AFC favorites again to reach the Super Bowl in a loaded conference.
Carolina Panthers: Over/Under 7.5 (+115)
The Panthers will start rookie QB and No. 1 pick Bryce Young. Will they improve on last year's 7-10 season? Carolina is the third choice to win a weak division with +500 odds.
Chicago Bears: Over/Under 7.5 (-140)
The Bears won just three games last season with rookie QB Justin Fields. A big leap is expected, but the Bears odds to win the NFC North are still +450 - worst in the division.
Cincinnati Bengals: Over/Under 10.5 (-140)
The Bengals lost to the Super Bowl champion Chiefs in last season’s AFC Championship Game after winning the AFC North with a 12-4 record (game vs Bills canceled). Cincinnati is favored to win the division this year with +160 odds.
Cleveland Browns: Over/Under 9.5 (+105)
The Browns won 7 games last season and will try to go from worst to first in the AFC North with odds to win the division of +325.
Dallas Cowboys: Over/Under 10 (-130)
Dallas has finished 12-5 in back-to-back seasons. The Cowboys are a contender to win the NFC East at +160 odds.
Denver Broncos: Over/Under 8.5 (-105)
The Broncos are looking to climb back up the AFC West standings following a 5-12 finish with Russell Wilson taking over at QB last season and new head coach Sean Payton in 2023. Denver is +575 to win the division.
Detroit Lions: Over/Under 9.5 (-125)
Following a 1-7 start last season, the Lions rallied to finish 9-8 and knock rival Green Bay out of a playoff spot in Week 18. Detroit is now the favorite to win the NFC North at +135 odds and looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Green Bay Packers: Over/Under 7.5 (-130)
The Jordan Love era has begun in Green Bay with the departure of future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers to the NY Jets. The Packers division dominance ended last season and Green Bay is +340 to win the division as the third choice.
Houston Texans: Over/Under 6.5 (+120)
The Texans were a dismal 3-13-1 last season, which included an 0-7-1 mark at home. Houston is the longshot to win the AFC South at +800 odds with rookie QB C.J. Stroud starting Week 1.
Indianapolis Colts: Over/Under 6.5 (-115)
The Colts also enter 2023 off a very disappointing season going 4-12-1. Now rookie QB Anthony Richardson tries to be 'It' in Indy. The Colts are +700 to win the AFC South.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Over/Under 9.5 (-145)
The Jaguars are the favorite to win the AFC South at -175 odds, after surprising many by winning the division last year with a big move forward going 9-8 after winning just three games in 2022.
Kansas City Chiefs: Over/Under 11.5 (-140)
The Super Bowl champs were the AFC’s top team with a 14-3 record last season. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes was league MVP and favored again this year with the Chiefs -165 to win their eighth straight division title.
Las Vegas Raiders: Over/Under 6.5 (+110)
Jimmy Garoppolo replaces Derek Carr (Saints) at quarterback with the Raiders facing one of the tougher schedules again in 2023. Las Vegas has seen their season win total dip off a 6-11 season, and the Raiders odds to win the AFC West are +2000 - worst in the division.
Los Angeles Chargers: Over/Under 9.5 (-140)
The Chargers made the playoffs in 2022, but blew a 27-point lead in defeat to Jacksonville in a AFC Wild Card game. Justin Herbert was a Pro Bowl QB, and the Chargers are expected to challenge for the division with better health and +250 odds.
Los Angeles Rams: Over/Under 6.5 (-110)
The Rams nose-dived last season to a 5-12 finish which followed a Super Bowl championship season in 2021. Injuries played a major role, but defensive concerns and WR Cooper Kupp's recovery loom large for the longshot Rams at +1000 to win the NFC West.
Miami Dolphins: Over/Under 9.5 (-110)
The Dolphins have won at least nine games in each of the last three seasons, and took the Bills to the wire in Buffalo in the AFC Wild Card round last season losing 34-31 as a +14 underdog. A healthy QB Tua Tagovailoa (multiple concussions) is needed in the rugged AFC East with the Dolphins odds to win the division at +300.
Minnesota Vikings: Over/Under 8.5 (-120)
The Vikings went 13-4 last season but lost at home in the Wild Card round of the playoffs to the NY Giants. Minnesota won a record 11 one-score games, and bookmakers expect regression in season wins for Minnesota with odds to win the division of +275.
New England Patriots: Over/Under 7.5 (+110)
The Patriots are coming off a losing season without a playoff berth for the second time in three years. New England is pegged for last in the AFC East with odds to win the division of +850. Tough division, tough schedule and under 7.5 wins is a bet with an 0-4 start a possibility vs Eagles, Dolphins and at the Jets and Cowboys. A December-January finish of Chargers, Chiefs, Jets and road games at Steelers, Broncos and Bills and you show me 8 wins for the Patriots this season.
New Orleans Saints: Over/Under 9.5 (+105)
Derek Carr is the new starting QB for a Saints team that missed the NFL Playoffs with a 7-10 record. Now the Saints are favored to win the weak NFC South with odds of +115.
New York Giants: Over/Under 7.5 (-110)
The G-Men surprised many in 2022 by making the playoffs with a 9-7 record and winning a Wild Card game. With QB Daniel Jones under a new contract and running back Saquon Barkley returning, will the Giants have a modest season win total gain and longshot odds to win the NFC East of +900.
New York Jets: Over/Under 9.5 (-120)
The Jets bring in 39-year-old QB Aaron Rodgers to ignite an offense and support a dominant-looking defense with NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Sauce Gardner leading the defensive backs. The Jets host the Bills on Monday Night Football Week 1, and a win would have them flip places with Buffalo to win the division with the Jets current odds to win the AFC East at +240.
Philadelphia Eagles: Over/Under 11.5 (+110)
Philadelphia lost several key players and coaches from its NFC championship squad. But QB Jalen Hurts emerged as a star last season and was superb in a Super Bowl defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Eagles have the leagues top offensive line ranking, and Philly is favored to reach the Super Bowl again in the NFC and Eagles odds to win the NFC East are -120.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Over/Under 8.5 (-155)
Rookie QB Kenny Pickett took over last season in Pittsburgh and the Steelers went 9-8 to finish third in the AFC North but missed the playoffs. The Steelers odds to win the division are +475 - worst in tougher and tighter AFC North.
San Francisco 49ers: Over/Under 10.5 (-150)
The 49ers gave up multiple first round draft choices to acquire QB Trey Lance two years ago, and he's been injured and a major bust looking to pave a new path in Dallas, after being traded last month for a 4th round draft pick. San Francisco's defense is expected to be among the best again with last year's rookie QB Brock Purdy returning from an injury in the NFC Championship game after playing so well during an 10-0 run to the playoffs. Expectations are high for the 49ers again as the NFC West favorite with -200 odds. But 'sharps' bet the 49ers under season wins, which is down from 11.5.
Seattle Seahawks: Over/Under 8.5 (-160)
The Seattle Seahawks and QB Geno Smith surprised many pundits last season winning 9 games and making the playoffs. The Seahawks are projected to contend for the playoffs again and +220 to win the NFC West.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over/Under 6.5 (+110)
The Buccaneers have gone downhill since winning the Super Bowl and QB Tom Brady's retirement. Head coach Todd Bowles now has QB Baker Mayfield taking the snaps, and the the defending NFC South champs (8-9) are projected to go from first to worst with odds to win the division of +800.
Tennessee Titans: Over/Under 7.5 (-145)
The Titans are coming off a 7-10 season in which they missed the postseason after being co-favorites and making the playoffs in 2021. Tennessee's odds to win the AFC South are +325 in the weakest AFC division.
Washington Commanders: Over/Under 6.5 (+105)
Speaking of weak and disastrous and dysfunctional ownership, the nation's capital in Washington is without a proven quarterback and the longshot to win the NFC East at +1200 odds off a 8-8-1 last place finish. Second-year QB Sam Howell starts for a Commanders team projected to score the fewest points in the NFC and perhaps entire league.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X (Twitter) @FairwayJayfor more sports betting insights.