Preview for Purdue vs Houston

BetOnline customers probably know that the gnarliest defense in college basketball might belong to the Houston Cougars. Well, on Friday night, they’ll be tested by an offense that can really hit from long range, as the Purdue Boilermakers challenge them for a spot in the Elite Eight. This Sweet Sixteen game begins at 10:09 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Don’t expect these teams to be running up and down the floor. In the category of Adjusted Tempo, according to the analytics site KenPom, Purdue ranked 299th in the nation, while Houston is 360th. That means they are operating at a VERY slow pace.

So who is going to be better in the half court? That’s what this game is all about.

Purdue is currently 24-11, which is not one of its best seasons for Matt Painter. If you remember, the Boilermakers made it to the national title game last season, when they had Zach Edey, the 7‘3“ center and two-time national player of the year, dominating inside. This year‘s team had a big win out of conference against Alabama, but they also lost seven games in the Big Ten, and dropped an 86–68 decision to Michigan in the conference tournament. Thus far, they have beaten High Point and McNeese State, and neither of those two wins would normally give people a lot of confidence that they could do something against Houston.

As for the Cougars, they currently have a 32-4 record, and they are on a 15-game winning streak, which is the longest in the nation. After beating SIU-Edwardsville 78-40 in their first game in the NCAA tournament, they knocked off Gonzaga 81-76.

In the NCAA tournament odds that have been posted on this game by the books at BetOnline, Houston is the solid favorite:

Houston Cougars -8.5
Purdue Boilermakers +8.5

Over 134 points -110
Under 134 points -110

Purdue’s go-to guy this season is Trey Kaufman-Renn, a 6‘9“ junior who had 22 points and 15 rebounds against McNee State this past weekend. He's had at least 20 points and four offensive rebounds in four consecutive games, and is hitting 61% of his shots in the tournament. This kind of production may not have been expected out of him, as he scored in double figures only 13 times over the last two seasons.

The guy who runs the show for Purdue, and will be the key guy in solving Houston’s defense, is Braden Smith, the point guard who has reached double digits in assists eleven times this season, but who had eight turnovers in his last outing.

It would appear certain that if Purdue is going to make any headway against Kelvin Sampson’s Houston squad, which is ranked first in the nation in defensive efficiency, according to KEN, they’ll have to get a substantial contribution from Fletcher Loyer, who is a 45% shooter from beyond the arc. In fact, as this is a team of three-point shooters, hitting 38.5% to rank in the top 10 nationally, that’s really the best Purdue has in going after the win.

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After all, Houston has allowed only 44.3% shooting from two point range, which ranks fifth best in the country, so that avenue might be shut down. At the same time, we might add that the Cougars are actually the nation’s best three-point shooting team as well, hitting a shade under 40%.

The principal weapon on offense is LJ Cryer, who had 30 points against Gonzaga, tying a career high. Interestingly enough, Cryer was a member of Baylor’s 2021 national championship team, which beat Houston by 19 points along the way.

We count on the Cougars to get some second chances as well, as they are 11th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, and they really know how to take care of the ball. Because they are deliberate, and Purdue isn’t the kind of team that is going to force them to turn up the tempo, the Boilermakers can’t even win a style match up here.

So we are going to cast our lot with Houston, which is easily one of the favorites to capture the national championship from this point forward.

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