NCAA Tournament 2025 Final Four Odds, Stats And Picks

March Madness betting tips, stats and Final Four coverage Florida-Auburn and Houston-Duke

It’s time for the Final Four, the pinnacle of the college basketball season and a historic men's matchup of all No. 1 seeds for just the second time in NCAA Tournament history (2008). The dominant conference in 2025 has placed two SEC top teams with Florida and Auburn from the West and South region playing for a spot in the championship game. Those top defensive teams are joined by two other defensive dominators in Big 12's best Houston from the Midwest region and ACC's elite Duke from the East region to determine the other college basketball championship game entrant. 

Those four teams have been the best in brackets to bets while delivering big baskets and keys to NCAA Tournament success through March Madness. 

The national semifinals tip off Saturday, April 5 from the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas with the championship game on Monday, April 7.

Final Four Matchups And Odds

Basketball odds and futures from BetOnline and leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change. That includes on props and live betting, which is most popular during March Madness. Spreads listed on favorites. All times Eastern.
 
Sat., April 5

Auburn vs. Florida (-2.5) | Total: 159.5 | 6:09 p.m. | CBS
Houston vs. Duke (-5) | Total: 136.5 | 8:49 p.m. | CBS

Mon., April 7

Houston vs. Florida (-1) | Total: 140.5 | 8:50 p.m. | CBS

Stats and Profiles of a National Champion

As noted in my Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight coverage, 21 of the last 22 National Champions have finished in the Top 20 in Ken Pom’s offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency rankings. All four teams in the Final Four are top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. 

- Duke (1 offense, 5 defense)
- Florida (2,10)
- Auburn (3,8)
- Houston (10,1)

Last year Connecticut had won a record 10 straight NCAA Tournament games by double-digits heading into the Final Four. The Huskies then rolled the Tide and pounded Purdue by 14 and 15 points to win the national championship as one of the most dominant college basketball teams of all time. Connecticut went 6-0 SU and ATS in the NCAA Tournament and all six of their games went under the game total. The Huskies had a +23 points per game margin of victory over their two seasons of back-to-back championships - just ahead of the 1967-68 UCLA Bruins (+22.5) dominant teams under the great coach John Wooden. 

This year's Final Four teams scoring margins and records:

+21.1: Duke (35-3)
+15.7: Houston (34-4)
+15.7: Florida (34-4)
+14.0: Auburn (32-5)

Duke is now 'Deviling' their way towards a title on a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS run through the NCAA Tournament with all wins by at least 7 points while scoring 93, 89, 100 and 95 points in four victories. Duke is now averaging 83.7 points per game this season. That's top-5 of NCAA Tournament teams just behind Florida (85.4) and ahead of Auburn (83.2). In the buy low sell high markets, I'm off Duke and taking a shot with Houston, even with a coach I don't care for but with a defense that is the best Duke has played this season with few quality defensive teams in the Atlantic Coast Conferencee. Playing the 'Dog is again contrary to the betting public, which is riding the favorites again in the Final Four as betting data from top online sportsbook BetOnline shows. 

Early Final Four $$$

Florida vs Auburn
58% Gators -2.5
68% Gators -153
78% U 159.5
75% ML Parlays Gators

Houston vs Duke
64% Duke -5
78% Duke -260
52% O 136.5
87% ML Parlays Duke

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) April 4, 2025

Houston (74.0) is not on the same court in scoring, but they are efficient, patient, take care of the basketball and among the best in offensive rebounding while hitting 39.7% from 3-point range - No. 2 in the country. Oh, and the Cougars are No. 1 in scoring defense (59.3) and FG shooting defense (38.2%). Sure, Duke is top-5 at 62.6 PPG defense and 38.5% FG defense, but Houston's top-5 effective FG% defense and 2-point defense and strong 3-point defense (30.1%) has me clawing with the Cougars. 

Pick: Houston  
Opinion: Florida/Auburn 'under' 

Championship Game 

Advance (Potential) lines for April 7 title game from BetOnline.

- Florida vs. Duke (-4)
- Auburn vs. Duke (-6)
- Houston vs. Florida (-1.5)
- Auburn vs. Houston (-1)

Check back ahead of the national championship game for more stats, odds, updates and information you can bet on. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and insightful analyst. He chips college basketball and additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Read more great insights from FairwayJay and follow him on  X: @FairwayJay